ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL….HANDICAPPING?

The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off this Thursday night.

It seems everybody has an opinion on NFL games and betting, nowadays. I'm no different.

As has been the case for the past 12 years, I'll post my weekly write ups and picks. Everything here will always remain free and easy for public access -- with my opinions and picks only a quick click away.

I also believe in providing complete transparency to my fellow gamblers. Accordingly, I'll keep a running count on my wins and losses as the season progresses.

MY NFL BETTING RECORD:

I've been very fortunate these past dozen years. I've ended up with 9 winning seasons. I suffered 3 losing seasons. One NFL season (2015) was disastrous, and due to my mistakes and mismanagement I went broke. Like I said, I believe in 100 percent transparency. Any serious sports gambler who tells you they always win – is lying. We all have downswings.

Indeed, be warned: I make lots of mistakes. But truth be told, I'm also coming off my most lucrative season ever, financially speaking (2023). See the links below which provide evidence.

Or, just click here and read this article from earlier this year: 2023 Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest

Las Vegas resident Nolan Dalla....tied for second place in the SuperContest at 58-30-2 ATS for $57,692.50. Dalla, the former World Series of Poker Media Director, won a total of $190,180.35 in the SuperContest. He had two other entries that finished fifth and tied for sixth, and he won the in-season contests for Weeks 10-12 (13-2, $25,000) and Weeks 10-18 (33-11-1, $75,000).

In my weekly write ups, I typically begin my public picks each season with a hypothetical $10,000 bankroll and then wager weekly from those funds. Oh, and the answer to your next question is "yes" -- I do bet these picks myself (and more, as second halves and live betting isn't recorded).

Here are some links to my past years, records, and writeups. Everything I've posted remains archived and posted. There are hundreds of weekly NFL reports and write ups at my site dating all the way back to 2012 (see links below). I also have several videos, some of which (if I can brag a bit) are pretty wild and entertaining.

READ -- 10 Years of NFL Predictions and Picks: My Updated Record

READ – Could I Win the NFL SuperContest? (yes, with lots of luck)

READ – Who Am I and Why Am I Here?

WATCH – A Disastrous Betting Week – Wild 20 Minute NFL Rant

WATCH – Gambler Goes Ballistic Over Atlanta Super Bowl Meltdown (my most infamous video)

The lines and totals and odds on props you will see here are based on what I find available at sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. If there's an outlier number someplace, I'll note it in my report. This is especially helpful for prop bettors. The menu and odds vary widely by casino sportsbook (especially if you have access to online betting) which means there's truth to the old adage and song lyric: "You better shop around."

However, loyal readers and followers should be aware of some new developments. I'll be doing things differently this season which now deserves an explanation.

WHAT TO EXPECT:

Readers can expect the bulk of NFL game analysis and picks -- mostly those games played on Sunday and Monday -- to appear each Saturday morning. The writeups will be posted over the next 22 weeks ( from now through the Super Bowl). Sometimes, I'll post the Thursday and Saturday game write ups earlier in the week. This will vary according to the early matchups, and my own schedule.

On my home webpage (https://www.nolandalla.com/), you'll see the write ups for key games. However, the comprehensive overview for all NFL games with my analysis and picks will be shared exclusively at www.Betcoin.ag. I'm pleased to report that I've entered into a partnership agreement with them and look forward to the much wider global distribution and access they can provide. Of course, all of this information and opinion is always free and easy to find. Links will be posted each week, along with the usual game write ups.

On Saturday nights, I'll also add my weekly contest picks in several Las Vegas NFL handicapping competitions where I (and an investment syndicate) have entered. These picks will only appear after the contest has been closed for that week. I must do this for security and so competitors can't take advantage of information on our picks. Last season, my $10,000 investment in two Las Vegas handicapping contests netted a whopping $180,180 in profit. I can't make any promises about what might happen in 2024, but I feel confident heading into a new season.

• Westgate SuperContest
• Westgate Second-Half Reboot Contest
• Circa Million
• Circa Survivor
• Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge
  

[The total number of entries amounts to a $20,000 investment.]

If you really want to follow along in real time, check out my NFL Betting Syndicate group and page on Facebook. CLICK HERE

WEEK 1 – KEY BETTING ANGLE:

In most NFL games this opening week, I’ll be wagering on the first half UNDERs. I don’t believe linesmakers (or the betting public) have compensated nearly enough for the unique set of circumstances of the seasonal kickoff games.

Also, the key word here is most. Much will depend on the actual numbers, usually centered around 23 and 24. A half point here or there is huge when betting the first half.

Most teams will opt for conservative game plans in the first half. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses early in the season.

Let’s also note that one-third of all NFL teams will be starting a new quarterback in this first game. Trades, draft choices, and free-agent signings shake-up team rosters and it usually takes some time for offenses to put things together. When we add in the number of new head coaches and offensive coordinators, nearly one-half of the entire NFL will feature the debut of a new head coach, offensive coordinator, or starting quarterback. Some teams have multiple newcomers in all three jobs.

As for recent results, first-half UNDERs went 10-6 last season (2023). They also went 10-6 the year before (2022). Combined, that’s 20 UNDERs and 12 OVERs. I’ll take those percentages anytime.

This compels me to make several first half wagers (UNDERs), which will be noted in each game writeup.

WEEK 1: GAME WRITE UPS AND PICKS:

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (THU)
Spread: Chiefs -3 (even)
Moneyline: Chiefs -155 / Ravens +130
Total: 48.5

Can the NFL just go ahead and schedule the regular season opener in Kansas City every single year? No city or fan base is more perfect for the regular season debut, and the Chiefs always seem to deliver an exciting game. This season, Kansas City hopes to make NFL history and three-peat. However, the Ravens are one of their major obstacles. These are arguably the best two teams in football, so it's the ideal kickoff game.

ANALYSIS:

• I rode the Kansas City Super Bowl express carrying extra baggage on three straight wagers during last year's playoffs. That streak included taking the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game versus the Ravens. Now, I think this is the time to jump on the other side and bet Baltimore, taking the sweet points at +3. In any late season or playoff matchup, I'd certainly lean towards the favorite, especially playing at home, where the Chiefs often seem infallible. Yet, I'm not as convinced Kansas City comes into this game and debuts with quite as much to prove as Baltimore, which was stung by the Chiefs in that 17-10 championship game loss in which they were both outplayed as well as outcoached.

• Of course, motivation isn't an issue in NFL openers, especially between two Super Bowl contenders. Rising to the occasion has never been a problem for Andy Reid-coached teams and the Chiefs have delivered in the past---though they did lose their season opener last season hosting Detroit. Nonetheless, Reid is an impressive 7-4 ATS and 9-2 SU in season openers during his reign in Kansas City. That said, Baltimore is an rqual match in team preparedness. The Ravens typically come into the regular season well prepared under John Harbaugh, evidenced by their historic preseason undefeated streak that lasted several years. Most analysts cited a carryover effect from their winning habits in preseason, and it's tough to argue with the Ravens' early season success.

• Are there reasons to take Kansas City and lay the points? Sure. Since 2000, Super Bowl champs are 14-10 ATS in Week 1 of the following season. QB Mahomes has also been a winning bet in Weeks 1, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS for his career. However, Mahomes' record in September isn't quite as impressive, at 11-8 ATS, which tells us that bettors have to pay a premium laying points anytime it's tied to Reid-Mahomes-Chiefs.

• A standout trend worth considering (that few bettors have latched onto, apparently) is QB Jackson's astonishing ATS record leading the Ravens when it comes to first half betting/covering. Let me credit Action Network here for publishing the research: Last season, Jackson's Ravens were 13-5 ATS on the first-half line over the course of the full season. Overall for his career, Jackson is a staggering 51-30-2 1H ATS. This remarkable stat makes him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 seasons consisting of 257 starting QBs. Even more surprising, I've seen no evidence of line adjustment that accounts for this outlier data on Jackson and the Ravens as first half betting beasts. My take--I think we can ascribe this first-half success to excellent preparedness, good coaching, and perhaps Jackson's unique skill set which are probably fresher in the first half of games. That's just my theory, but there's enough here to ride the trend supported by strong data and bet it this week.

• I'm also considering a wager all the NFL first halfs to go UNDER in Week 1. This total is 23.5, which gives us a win across a key number in 1H totals--which is 23. There's exra vig, but it's worth it to catch a win on 13-10 (and multiples thereof), which are common halftime scores.

• One prop looks enticing -- betting OVER on the longest field goal of the game. The prop applies to kickers of both teams. The O/U on yards is 46.5. This means we need one successful FG of 47 yards or longer to win. Kansas City and Baltimore field two of the NFL's best kickers, with strong legs. Coaches will routinely attempt 50+ yarders with either kicker. Last season, these two teams combined for 65 field goals on 72 attempts, averaging about 3.5 successful FGs per game. We also have two excellent offenses that move the ball well and should get to midfield often. In a close high-profile game, field goals could come into play more than usual. Also note this prop is usually lined at 45.5 to 46.5 which means no adjustment has been made for the matchup or the excellent kickers, who most would agree are top-5 in the league, and arguably 1-2 in the NFL. OVER 46.5 with a little extra juice probably has some value.

• Intangibles: Both teams lost a few starters, mostly on defense. The Ravens lost their DC (Macdonald) who took the Seattle head coaching job--which could be a concern. I'm not sure how much positive weight to give Baltimore which acquired RB Henry from Tennessee in the offseason. I'm lukewarm on Henry (age is a concern and he's been lackluster big games in recent seasons), but he also might have a little extra to give in this debut with the Ravens. Assuming he's anywhere near his prior peak with the Titans, Baltimore would have a formidable duel-threat rushing attack with that speed and power backfield. Will this produce immediate results? I'm uncertain--but Henry might be a tipping point in the Ravens' favor.

• Counterargument: We’re betting against Kansas City here, a bonafide dynasty in the making. Enough said.

PICKS:

Full Game -- Baltimore +3 (-120)
First Half -- Baltimore +1.5 (-120)
First Half -- UNDER 23.5 (-120)
Prop -- Longest Field Goal (Either Team) OVER 46.5 yards (-115)

GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA (FRI-SAO PAULO)
Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Eagles -136 / Packers +120
Total: 48.5

Here's an unusual matchup of two playoff teams that were headed in completely opposite directions at the end of last season. The wrinkle is the location, since the game site is in South America. The game line is puzzling (Eagles -2.5) since there's lots of evidence the wrong team might be favored.

ANALYSIS:

• This would be a very tough matchup under normal mid-season conditions. Add the uncertainties of this game being the first ever to be played in the nation of Brazil and handicapping might as well come with a pair of dice and a blindfold. Aside from one wager I'm making -- based strictly on an angle -- there's nothing about this matchup I like. So, this rates as a pass for me, though there are some compelling factors worth sharing.

• Green Bay was a 9-8 team last season, but by January was clearly a much better lineup than the wingless Eagles. Green Bay won its Wild Card road game against Dallas and very nearly upset San Francisco in the Division Round. Meanwhile, Philadelphia appeared to be the NFL's best team at midseason, riding high on a 10-1 record. Then, the Eagles mysteriously hit the skids and went 1-5 the rest of the way, including a shocking defeat in the playoffs versus mediocre Tampa Bay. It sure looks like Green Bay should be favored here.

• Head Coach LaFleur is 22-10 ATS as an underdog with the Packers. He's also 13-2 ATS in the first three weeks of the regular season (kudos Eric Schneller for the tip). That's another reason to like Green Bay plus the points.

• Eagles QB Hurts was burdened with injuries last season (which was poor statistically 23/15 TD/INT ratio). Hurts really hurt his team with badly-timed mistakes (I had to do that). I'm also unconvinced that Packers QB Love deserved the mega-contract he signed in the offseason--we'll see how that turns out. Hurts is probably a top-5 all-purpose QB when he's healthy. I'm not sure Love is in the top-half of the league, even though he cashed a huge paycheck. The point is, I don't trust either offense for very different reasons. Also, keep in mind the Center position is one of the most underrated in pro football, and Eagles' C Kelce retired. His replacement has played just 45 snaps in his entire career. Again, this is more uncertainty. Another thing that should scare bettors away from the Eagles, who are riding a 7-game non-cover streak dating back to last season is Hurts wide disparity of performances at home versus away. The Eagles' starter is an impressive 18-9 ATS in Philadelphia but only 10-18-1 ATS away, which ranks as the worst QB in the league since 2020. Bad hotel rooms? Lousy food? Do we really want to bet Hurts and the Eagles after a flight to Sao Paulo?

• So, given some positive factors that appear to favor Green Bay, why did the line open at Philadelphia -1.5 and then move to -2.5? Is this a case of reverse line movement begging for money to come in on the Packers? I don't know, but the fact this game is being played under unprecedented conditions and added in some distractions with local issues and politics in Brazil, we don't know how the game will play out. I'm also wary about field conditions in these foreign stadiums, which have sometimes added to the unpredictability.

• I'm betting the first half UNDER angle, which is 23.5 (-105). The game total dropped from 51 to 48.5. I wish I'd acted on 24 assuming it was available early, but that might have been tough to get that early number.

• Counterargument: Many factors point to taking Green Bay in the first half, game line, and perhaps even the moneyline which is generously listed at +130. Reverse line move (money coming in on Philadelphia) seems baseless and shouldn't influence a preponderance of evidence that the Packers are the right side in this matchup.

PICKS

First Half -- UNDER 23.5 (-105)

JACKSONVILLE at MIAMI (SUN)
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Moneyline: Dolphins -175 / Jaguars +152
Total: 49.5

The battle for Florida will kickoff on a hot humid day -- 91 degrees is forecast. Both teams are eager to make the next leap forward coming off winning seasons that failed to produce any playoff wins. The Dolphins deserve being favored here, but perhaps not by this number. Instead of picking a side, I'll single out a player prop and the first half total as preferred options.

ANALYSIS:

• When we think of home field advantage, most fans and bettors wouldn't put Miami anywhere near the top of the NFL. Nothing against those who attend Dolphins games, but Miami doesn't exactly strike fear into opponents. Well, perhaps it should. Miami is 40-23-2 ATS at home over the past 8 years, and that stretch includes three different head coaches, multiple quarterbacks, and some losing seasons.. Incredibly, the Dolphins hold the distinction as the NFL's best home team covering the spread within that span. Accordingly, that's an important starting point when handicapping this matchup. Miami seems to be a different team at home versus away.

• The problems with taking the Dolphins are twofold. First mid-week reports showed several injuries for Miami, whereas Jacksonville comes into Week 1 almost perfectly healthy. There's also that annoying hook on the 3 with the Dolphins and I don't like laying more that a FG in a game that could be close and be decided on the final drive. If there's value on Miami, I'm not seeing it.

• Miami closed last season with two losses to Buffalo (last game of season, then first round of playoffs). Meanwhile, the Jaguars were expected to win a weak division last year, and disappointed everyone with mediocrity and inconsistency. These two teams share some similarities aside from being Floridians. Both have superstar QBs, but also field suspect defenses. That triggers one of the higher betting totals on the board this week.

• We should also remember that Jacksonville was 8-3 and coasting on their way to a division title and perhaps the AFC's top seed last year before QB Lawrence got injured and that ruined everything. Was that record a mirage? Sure, Jax enjoyed an easy schedule, but when healthy, they could pull off the outright upset versus anybody, especially Miami with a suspect defense.

• Jags RB Etienne "OVER 19.5 receiving yards" looks like a solid prop bet. I got this number laying -115. Jax likes to throw the ball (61 percent of their offensive plays were passes LY), ranking 6th in the league. Eitenne should get a few passes and also brings excellent breakaway potential, especially versus weak Miami defense. I read (credit Covers.com) that Miami's porous defense surrendered the second-worst passing yardage to RBs in the NFL last season and with a dependable QB throwing, he should get some touches with the ball.

• Counterargument: A case can probably be made for betting Jacksonville and taking +3.5. Nonetheless, my take is that the Jaguars might be getting too much respect given their 9-8 record last year and middle of the pack rankings in most offensive categories. We know what Miami can do at home, especially with an explosive offense. They will run up the score if it comes to that late in the game. That said, some key injuries to the Dolphins combined with a slightly higher spread than I like will keep me off the favorite and instead result in a pass on this game--aside from two wagers.

PICKS:

Player Prop -- RB Etienne, Jr. OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115)
First Half Total -- UNDER 24

ARIZONA at BUFFALO (SUN)
Spread: Bills -6.5
Moneyline: Bills -278 / Cardinals +235
Total: 48

After yet another crushing playoff defeat killing last season's hope, the '24 Bills will try to regroup and aim for another double-digit winning season. In their home opener, Buffalo gets the perfect patsy opponent to possibly regain some confidence. Arizona, coming off a dismal 4-win season, remains in the midst of yet another rebuilding phase. There's certainly some talent on the offense, but Arizona's porous defense might be the worst in the NFL. It's a surprise to see Buffalo laying less than a touchdown here, which shows that betting markets may be expecting a decline in Buffalo.

ANALYSIS:

• Many NFL observers expect Buffalo to take a step downward this season. They'll likely be tested by Miami and NY Jets in the division, which they've dominated over the past five seasons. A year ago, this line likely would have been BUF -8 or perhaps even -9. The Bills at home can roll up yards and points. That's especially true playing against on the the league's worst teams and a defense that ranked #31 in points allowed (and failed to improve much in the offseason). But instead of knee-jerk betting Buffalo, this line has remained less than a touchdown all week. I can't imagine that's public confidence in the Cardinals but rather some concern the Bills won't be the explosive team we've been used to watching in the McDermott-Allen era. Hence, we have to be careful about perceiving Buffalo as the same team we've been used to watching.

• Here's a few stats I found compelling, worth sharing (thanks to Action Network). Cardinals QB Murray is a remarkable 25-15-2 ATS as an underdog -- the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog in the league. Arizona is 11-5-2 ATS as a dog of 4+ and 7-3-2 ATS as a dog of 6+. Murray has also enjoyed surprising success playing in the east, where he's 11-3 ATS (EST), including 16-6 ATS playing in either EST or CST--covering the spread by an average of 6 points per game.

• I can't bring myself to take Arizona, unless I was getting +7. Right now, the spread is just shy of that. The Cardinals defense could be historically bad and facing QB Allen is not a good spot to be in. At +6.5, this game is a pass.

• The one prop I'll take is Bills WR Samuel to go OVER 3.5 receptions. Arizona has a horrible pass defense with exploitable corners. Samuel joins Buffalo following two seasons in Washington, which had very poor QB play. Yet, he still averaged 3.5 catches a game last year and should see that number go up with Allen looking for big targets. Arizona surrendered one of the worst pass completion rates in football LY (68 pct) versus WRs last year. Samuel prop was originally listed at 2.5 (-160) but was bet up, which means we need one extra catch to go OVER. However, he is priced at +128 now, so the plus money is another bonus.

• Counterargument: None.

PICKS:

Player Prop -- Bills WR Samuel OVER 3.5 receptions (+128)
First Half Total -- UNDER 23.5 (-105)

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (SUN)
Spread: Saints -4
Moneyline: Saints -200 / Panthers +170
Total: 41.5

Two teams with lots of question marks will face off in New Orleans at the Superdome. Angry and disappointed Saints fans are already calling for coaching and quarterback changes, and they haven't even played a down yet. Carolina is used to misery, posting an NFL-worst 2-15 record last season. Both teams appear to be going nowhere, but do have the luxury of playing in the league's worst division and somebody has to win it. A 9-win season might be enough to win the NFC South, and one of these teams will be on their way towards contention with a 1-0 record. This might be the worst game on the schedule this weekend. Of course, that doesn't mean it's not worth betting on.

ANALYSIS:

• The Saints seem to follow a consistent pattern. They beat inferior teams. They lose to superior teams. Last season, New Orleans was 7-2 against losing teams. However, they were just 2-6 versus winning teams. Now, Carolina might be the worst team in the NFL and is certainly at the bottom of the NFC. Since the Saints are playing at home and laying a seemingly low number of points, New Orleans is certainly worth consideration in this spot.

• Lost in the fog of the cloudy NFC South race in 2023, many forget New Orleans did end the season with a winning 9-8 record, but lost tiebreakers for the final Wild Card spot. More compelling is the fact the Saints closed the season strongly, winning 4 of their last 5 games (only loss was a close road defeat to LA Rams). The New Orleans offense also found its stride, averaging 30 PPG in that homestretch of the last five games. Will this optimism carry over into 2024? That's uncertain. However, I do think New Orleans might be under the radar here and isn't being given the credit they deserve.

• The Saints are much maligned because head coach Allen has posted such horrible results over the course of his putrid career. Allen is 24-46 SU (34 pct. wins) which is the absolute worst among all active head coaches. That isn't going to cut it in New Orleans. Once again, I think this perception might play towards the Saints having value, especially versus a bad opponent with a multitude of problems, starting with a horrendous offense.

• Carolina's offensive numbers last season were atrocious. In 9 of their final 10 games, Carolina failed to reach the 20-point mark. They were shut out in their final two games. In 7 of their games, the Panthers scored 10 points or fewer. Carolina also lost 9 of their final 10 games down the stretch, the only win being an ugly 9-7 win hosting Atlanta in the rain. Where's the reason for optimism in Carolina and why isn't this team getting more points until they prove the ability to score points? LY Panthers averaged just 4.1 yards per offensive play. That was not only the worst mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team in 15 seasons.

• Panthers' QB Young's numbers were scary bad. He poses almost no rushing threat and his passing numbers reveal a botton-5 performance in 2023. He was also sacked 62 times, one of the NFL"s worst numbers. Until we see Young can play at this level, he should be an automatic fade.

• Saints PK Grupe appears to be slighted here on his player prop point projection. Line is 6.5 points (two FGs and an XP sails the prop OVER). New Orleans could score lots of points (certainly possible in the home dome versus bad Carolina), which gives kicker scoring props added opportunities. Domes are typically good for kickers anyway. Grupe made 30/37 FGs last season, including 6/9 from 50+ There's also some possibility the Saints stumble in the red zone (which was a problem last season). This gives Grupe more FG chances.

• Counterargument: This is a brand new season and Carolina has only one direction to go, which is to improve. But will we see positive results this early in what's typically been a tough place to play for the visiting team? I don't think so. A winning veteran team hosting an unproven opponent with so many unproven parts, laying just 4 points seems like a bargain.

PICKS:

Full Game Side -- New Orleans -4
First Half Total -- UNDER 21 (-115)
Player Prop -- Saints PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (SUN)
Spread: Texans -3
Moneyline: Texans -148 / Colts +128
Total: 49

This is a fascinating matchup. Houston has been hyped (perhaps overhyped) by betting markets. We'll see if the optimism for Houston is justified. Winning divisional road games is always a challenge and Houston has a shot to start with a critically important victory. These same two teams played a thriller late last season which was essentially a playoff game for both, but the Colts appear to have declined in talent since then. The spotlight will also be on QB Richardson for the Colts, who returns after missing most of last season with an injury.

ANALYSIS:

• Houston is getting lots of love from the betting public. Is the adoration deserved? I think the numbers favoring Houston have moved a little too fast. Yes, this young team made the playoffs last season and even won a wild card game, but also keep in mind, both rivals Jacksonville and Indianapolis lost their starting QBs last season, which gave the Texans a much easier path to the AFC South division crown. Houston is an exciting, up-and-coming team, but I'm less convinced they should be instantly installed as -3 favorites in a divisional road game. Houston needs to show up they deserve this level of respect, which I haven't seen yet. Indy is an automatic enticement for me.

• Colts QB Richardson looked like the real deal in his debut season with the Colts but then went down in the fifth game with a season-ending injury. So, most of the Colts' stats last season were under the guidance of QB Minshew, who still had Indy in playoff contention late in the season. Indy was a 9-8 team with a backup QB and lost that playoff shot with a 4-point loss to the Texans (Indy had the ball in the red zone but blew it late in the game). Obviously, Richardson returning has many questions. However, he showed good results last season and will certainly be in game condition in the home opener.

• Division home dogs have always been an NFL handicappers best friend. Dogs are the way to go most weeks, anyway. But the rivalry aspect gives getting points even more weight. Let's add in the excitement of a new season and two teams that might be closer in talent than the line indicates, and taking the Colts appears to be the smart play. I also like fading public hype, and the Texans are darlings right now.

• The standout player prop appears to be Texans QB Stroud getting more rushing yards than the number indicates. O/U: 7.5 yards. Stroud isn't a rushing QB, but he did average 11 YPG last season, and that's with kneel downs factored in. Stroud ran 39 times last season in 15 games, and playing against the NFL's #30 ranked rushing defense (2023 stats) I look for him to tuck it and run a few times. I also think the rubber grass dome favors OVERs in this situation, and the Colts are an ideal place to get a few extra yards that pushes this stat OVER.

• Counterargument: I don't know what explains Indy's horrific Week 1 results, historically speaking. It makes no sense. Perhaps it's the fact the Colts have started new seasons with so many different QBs (6 over the last 7 seasons), as well as a revolving door of coaches and coordinators. But we can't ignore (thanks, Action Network for this) the fact the "Colts are 2-13-1 straight up and 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1 – including 0-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents. Since 2003, the Colts are 5-14-2 ATS in their season opener, the least profitable team ATS in the NFL. The Colts haven't won a Week 1 game SU since Andrew Luck in 2013."

PICKS:

Full Game Side -- Indianapolis +3 (-115)
First Half Total -- UNDER 24 (-120)
Player Prop -- Texans QB Stroud OVER 7.5 rushing yards

MINNESOTA at NY GIANTS (SUN)
Spread: Vikings -1.5
Moneyline: Vikings -115 / Giants +105
Total: 41

Two teams with low expectations this season will meet in the Meadowlands. Given so many problems with these two offenses, our focus should be on various totals, which will be some of the lowest numbers of the week. The Giants may also be worth a bet based on some surprising findings about their record against-the-spread in recent years.

ANALYSIS:

• The NY Giants have been the best UNDER team at home in the NFL since the 2000 season, and it's not even close. The G-Men are 24-9 to the UNDER in NJ, with game scoring falling below the O/U by 5.2 PPG on average. Of those 33 home games, QB Jones is 17-7 to the UNDER in his home starts. We rarely see totals in the 30s anymore unless it's a really severe weather situation, but this total could be justified at 39 or perhaps even 38. Accordingly, the UNDER will get two bets from me....in the first half and the full game.

• Minnesota revamps their offense coming into a new season, which probably helps our UNDER plays. Cousins departed which forced the Vikings to go out and acquire QB Darnold off the used car lot with a salvage title. The ex-Jet returns to the Meadowlands (he posted a 13-25 SU record with NYJ). Darnold is just as bad ATS over the course of his lackluster career -- a woeful 22-33-1 versus the line as an NFL starter.

• So, why are the Vikings laying points on the road? I don't care how bad bettors think the Giants will be, Minnesota shouldn't be gifting points to anyone. This team finished 7-10 last season and lost 6 of their final 7 games. And now Darnold is going to fix the mess?

• Researching this matchup, I was surprised – no shocked – to come across the revelation that Giants head coach has been money in the bank. According to Action Network, Daboll is 22-13-1 ATS in his career with the Giants. In fact, his 63 pct ATS win rate is the highest among all head coaches over the last 20 years (minimum of 10 games). Seriously--who would have thought Daboll was such a great coach to bet? Let's add the even more amazing stat that Daboll has been forced to start four different QBs due to injuries, and yet all four are above .500 ATS with the team. I don't know if this is an indication Daboll is a much better coach that we credit him for, but it certainly shows his teams have been grossly undervalued by betting markets. Case in point....the Giants getting points as a home dog this week.

• Even though it's a small number, I believe a wager on the home underdog is justified. I'll also go UNDER 20.5 in the 1H and UNDER 41 for the full game.

PICKS:

Full Game Side -- NY Giants +1.5
Full Game Total -- UNDER 41
First Half Total -- UNDER 20.5 (-120)

NEW ENGLAND at CINCINNATI (SUN)
Spread: Bengals -8.5
Moneyline: Bengals -400 / Patriots +335
Total: 41

According to the point spread, this is the biggest mismatch on this week's schedule. Look for Cincinnati to be bet heavily on survivor pools, teasers, and other wagers. This is mostly due not so much because of love for and faith in the Bengals, but perceptions that New England (with Belichick gone) has probably hit rock bottom and will be in a complete rebuilding mode for 2024. The Patriots have the lowest win total in the NFL this season, at 4.5.

ANALYSIS:

• Following a crowd can be dangerous because in the rear you can't see where it's headed and the herd might be running off a cliff. Typically, I'm a contrarian who prefers to fade public perception, but the lack of faith in the Patriots appears justified. The Patriots were 4-13 last season and two of those wins came against opponents who started backup QBs. The Patriots also have a rookie head coach who will start QB Brissett, who has bounced around the league like a rubber ball. Brissett has a dreadful 18-30 record as a starter. Even worse, this might be the worst team he's played for--yet.

• Let me credit Pro Football Focus for this tidbit of info: In their pre-training camp rankings, New England ranked dead last in wide receivers, 25th in running backs, and 28th in offensive line; those low scores came before that unit performed poorly in preseason games. It's a tossup as to whether the Patriots or Panthers are the worst team, and though both could improve as the season goes along, coming out of the offseason with a strong effort on the road versus a legit Super Bowl contender is way too much of a longshow.

• Cincy QB Burrow has been injury prone, but now enters the 2024 season healthy. He's an impressive 31-20-1 ATS over his career, including an 18-12-1 mark as a favorite. Reports of Burrow working hard in the offseason were positive and an indication Cincinnati may return to the form of their Super Bowl run three seasons ago.

• Counterargument: Cincinnati has gotten off to dreadfully slow starts under head coach Zac Taylor. Cincinnati lost straight up as a favorite in its last two openers, and were just 3-6 in their first three games since the start of 2002. The team has lost four of its last five season openers and two of three at home. But this opponent is easily their softest and the Bengals should be eager to erase those memories early in the season.

PICKS:

Full Game Side -- Cincinnati -8.5
Moneyline -- Cincinnati (-400) .... Risking $400 to win $100

TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (SUN)
Spread: Bears -3.5
Moneyline: Bears -186 / Titans +162
Total: 44.5

Expectations are high in Chicago entering a new season, while Tennessee could bottom out in the midst of a lengthy rebuilding phase. The question as to betting either side in this game is -- has the market overreacted to optimism for the Bears and could the Titans be a smart contrarian bet?

ANALYSIS:

• Chicago won 7 games last season, and is currently listed at “O/U 8.5 wins” this year. Much of the media and betting hype is due to rookie sensation QB Williams and the excitement he brings. But wait–haven't we heard this song and dance before with the Bears? Before laying my money down on Chicago, I want to see some evidence.

• One compelling stat Williams brings to the equation is a surprising data point -- rookie QBs have been shockingly profitable the past three seasons, going 30-19 ATS when favored. Keep in mind those stats are season-long. It's highly unusual for any rookie QB making his first NFL start to be favored, especially by more than a field goal. In five instances when this happened in Week 1 (since 1970), only one covered the spread.

• Chicago's real appeal as a team worth a bet might be it's improved defense, which was excellent down the stretch, last season. The Bears allowed just 10-13-20-16-16-17 points in their final six games, respectively. Those were among the NFL's best numbers in points allowed. This week, the Bears face one of the worst offenses in the NFL and should continue their low-points allowed streak. This plays into two wagers for me -- UNDER in both the first half and for the full game.

• I don't expect the Bears to put all the pressure on Williams to produce flashy numbers in this NFL debut. They won't have to do much against a team like Tennessee. Will Levis starts at QB for the Titans, who ranked near the bottom of most passing categories LY. Levis may eventually be a good fit in Tennessee, but opening up here on the road versus an above average defense, I expect him to struggle. The loss of All-Pro RB Henry and the running game won't help, either.

• Counterargument: I'm trying to find a reason why OVER would be a good bet on anything connected to the Titans, or the Bears. I can't. The TENN offense doesn't scare anybody, but the defense might be one of the most underrated in the NFL. I've seen projections that the Titans are a top-12 defense and assuming that's anywhere close to accurate, combined with an above average Chicago D, this total is simply too high and likely jaded by high expectations for Williams and what he brings to the Bears offense.

PICKS:
Full Game Total -- UNDER 44.5
First Half Total -- UNDER 22.5

PITTSBURGH at ATLANTA (SUN)
Spread: Falcons -3.5
Moneyline: Falcons -175 / Steelers +150
Total: 42

Atlanta may have generated an overly-optimistic echo chamber effect heading into this new season. Many football analysts expect the Falcons to compete for the NFC South title. This 7-10 team from last season is projected up to 9.5 wins, mostly due to veteran free-agent signings, including veteran QB Cousins who arrives from Minnesota. Meanwhile, no one knows what to expect from Pittsburgh, though projections are that the Steelers could post their first losing season ever under head coach Tomlin. QB Russell Wilson, who was awful for two seasons in Denver, will get one more chance to prove with Pittsburgh he's still got something left in the tank. This spread appears to be an overreaction to those diametrically opposite forecasts of two teams headed in different directions.

ANALYSIS:

• Two teams with veteran QBs joining new offenses take the field in one of the more intriguing matchups of the week. Cousins comes to the Falcons from Minnesota, where he put up solid numbers, but never quite made the leap to a top-tier QB. He'll have a legit shot to improve and get there with this offense, given the Falcons have lots of weapons. Meanwhile, Wilson is a much bigger question mark. He's more than three full seasons removed from status as an elite QB and coming off a disastrous period in Denver. Any new surroundings will be good for Wilson, but does he have anything left to give? Tomlin's Steelers might be the right fit, but it might also take some time to see positive results.

• An alarming trend to consider when betting Steelers games: According to Pro Football Network, in the span of 2018-2023 the Steelers have covered just 40 percent of games in Weeks 1-4. But they're 61 percent covers during the rest of the season in Weeks 5-18. That’s quite a gap. This data reveals it likely takes time for Tomlins' teams to get things together, but when they do about a month into the season, the market undervalues them and smart Pittsburgh backers take advantage, with a handsome profit to show. This indicates staying away from the Steelers in Week 1.....and then perhaps betting them later in the year.

• We all know about Tomlin's win streak as coach in Pittsburgh. What's lesser known is how solid he's been for bettors. The Steelers are a staggering 59-35-4 ATS (63 pct) as an underdog in the full Tomlin era, which is the most profitable head coach as a dog in the last 20 years. Pittsburgh is getting +3.5 this week. Let's also note the Steelers have gone 21-14 ATS since former QB Roethlisberger's retirement, and that's been with some really shaky starting quarterbacks.

• Counterargument: It might be smart to wait and see before betting on the Steelers. Normally, Atlanta laying more than a FG with such an unproven lineup (and coach) would be an instant fade. However, Wilson could bomb with Pittsburgh and there's been so much of an overhaul to this roster that we don’t have much to evaluate, other than old coaching and team .

PICKS:

None -- Pass

DALLAS at CLEVELAND (SUN)
Spread: Browns -2.5
Moneyline: Browns -139 / Cowboys +123
Total: 41

Two playoff teams from last season meet in one of the most interesting matchups of Week 1. Dallas remains a solid regular season contender and returns an explosive offense while the Browns bring in one of the top-ranked defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, there are lingering questions about the Cleveland offense. There's been significant line and total moves in this game, worth noting.

ANALYSIS:

• Dallas gets maligned for choking in the playoffs (rightfully so), but let's also remember this has been a 12-win team for three straight seasons. They actually outperform betting market projections in Sept.-Nov., which is surprising since this is perhaps the NFL most hyped (and often overrated) teams. But Dallas usually wins and gets the money during the regular season. In fact, 2022-2023 Dallas has been the best team in the NFL in terms of average points above the spread (+4.46; only two other teams are even at +3). Accordingly, Dallas should often be looked at closely with a bet, so long as they can stay healthy.

• Dallas is worth a bet here based on the fact they're the superior team. I'll take +2.5 points despite some concerns the Cowboys don’t perform well on the road as dogs. I also suspect many Cleveland bettors must have forgotten that QB Watson hasn't played at a comfortable level in 3 seasons, and he's never performed well in Cleveland. Let’s add the fact the Dallas' defense can be aggressive and force mistakes and I wouldn't trust Watson to be the playmaker needed. Watson is also a bad bet as a favorite; just 14-19-2 ATS during his career. The Browns may rely heavily on RB Chubb to get plenty of carries, but look for Dallas to concentrate on stopping the run, forcing Watson to throw. Hence, I don't think this is a good matchup for the Browns.

• Cleveland made the playoffs last season, but that was in spite of QB Watson and his inconsistent play. He went down in midseason and was replaced. With Flacco in a journeyman role, the Browns offense improved dramatically. Now, they’re back to the previous roster.

• Inexplicably, the total plunged 3 points. I jumped on the OVER once it hit 41. Keep in mind 44, 43, 42, and 41 are all key numbers in totals betting and to capture 41 is a gift. Both teams are loaded in the WR corps, and Dallas in particular has shown they can put up points Dallas led the NFL in PPG last season, at nearly 30 per game. The Browns also have plenty of talent with their wideouts. The Browns OL is a major concern.

• Counterargument: The total dropped 3 points and the Browns line moved from -1.5 to -2.5 favorites. I'm fading the market here, which sees this game very differently than I do.

PICKS:

First Half Side -- Dallas +1.5
Full Game Side -- Dallas +2.5
Full Game Total -- OVER 41

WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY (SUN)
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Moneyline: Bucs -177 / Commanders +155
Total: 42

Tampa Bay brings a veteran team and coaching staff that was a surprise last year into a new season. They'll host the Commanders who will debut with a new head coach, new quarterback, and several untested personnel. This is Tampa Bay's test to prove their playoff appearance a season ago wasn't a fluke while the Commanders could improve, it probably won't happen in their first week.

ANALYSIS:

• Washington finished last season 4-13. They also lost 9 of their final 10 games (beating only New England by 3). Their dismal season prompted them to draft Jayden Daniels as their new quarterback with the second overall pick. He'll be worth watching, for sure. But the stat worth paying attention to is this -- rookie QBs have a dismal 16-35-1 record in openers, including a 0-7-1 mark during the past five seasons. The last rookie QB to win a Week 1 start was way back in 2018.

• New head coach Dan Quinn was a solid hire in Washington, but let's also remember he's a defensive-minded coach (former defensive coordinator). Interestingly, that puts much of the pressure on Kliff Kingsbury, the former Arizona head coach who is now the OC. Kingbury and Quinn might eventually make for a successful duo with Daniels leading the charge. But look for that to take some time. Note this will be the 8th consecutive year Washington will start a new QB in the first game, which is a dubious NFL record.

• Not many fans or bettors expected Baker Mayfield to turn the Bucs around in 2023. Mayfield topped 4,000 passing yards last season, and finished with 28 TDs and just 10 INTs. Those are strong numbers suitable for a playoff contender. The Bucs are helped by having two 1,000-yard receivers returning -- Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This will test the Commanders secondary, which is young and suspect. The Bucs team total at just 22.5 looks like a good opportunity to go OVER, since we catch a win on 23.

• Counterargument: It's hard to come up with many reasons to pick Washington. That said, the line has moved in their favor, down a half point from -4 to -3.5. QB Mayfield might excel as an underdog when least expected, but when the pressure is on, he hasn't played as well. Mayfield’s career starts are just 14-26-1 ATS. Still, I don’t weigh that much here given Washington’s weaknesses.

PICKS:

Full Game Side – Tampa Bay -3.5
Team Total Full Game – Tampa Bay OVER 22.5 points (-115)

LAS VEGAS at LA CHARGERS (SUN)
Spread: Chargers -3
Moneyline: Chargers -160 / Raiders +140
Total: 39.5

Longtime AFC West rivals face off in Los Angeles. Much of the focus may be on the two coaches as Jim Harbaugh makes his re-debut in the NFL while we’ll soon see if Antonio Pierce can continue his impressive turnaround with the Raiders in the second half of last season.

ANALYSIS:

• Here's a stat not many people know. Under "interim" coach A. Pierce last season, the Raiders went 5-4, and that was with a weak, unproven QB rotation. Most impressive was the fact that in that 9-game span down the stretch, the Raiders allowed the fewest points in the NFL(just 16 PPG). That performance gave Pierce the full-time job. He also ended up going 7-1-1 ATS in his nine games. The Raiders have been a dysfunctional organization for two decades, but let's credit Pierce for his work and consider the possibility he's the leader this long-suffering franchise needs.

• QB Minchew arrives in Las Vegas from Indianapolis, where he performed pretty well with an average team. Minchew isn't flashy but he avoids mistakes and is probably a good fit until the Raiders can transition upward into contention.

• The Chargers have been a terrible disappointment ever since moving to Los Angeles. Every year, they underachieve. New coach Harbaugh is expected to fix that, and perhaps he will -- with time. It will be interesting to watch Harbaught make the pro to college back to pro jump, and watch how his players and staff react. I foresee an adjustment period here, and the Chargers to continue floundering. I'm also not sold on QB Herbert, who puts up impressive stats (often in garbage time) but hasn't shown the leadership this team desperately needs. Herbert is just 30-33 SU. Let me just say it--he's overrated. I'll keep fading Herbert and the Chargers. More on Herbert: He sat out most of training camp because of a foot injury and had to wear a boot for two weeks. Is Herbert ready to play?

• Also note that for a team with a reputation as an explosive passing attack, the Chargers are 20-10 to the UNDER in Herbert's last 30 starts. It looks like the market has adjusted here, since this game total is the lowest on the board. Still, the low total compels me to like the underdog. Another reason to like the Raiders: LV returns most of their 2023 defensive unit that dominated the NFL in the second half of the season. That could make thing even tougher for an immobile opposing QB.

• Counterargument: Recall, the Raiders set a franchise record the last time they played LA. Las Vegas scored 63 points. Not sure if there's any revenge mentality at play here, but it's worth mentioning.

PICKS:

First Half Side -- Las Vegas +1.5 (-115)
Full game Side -- Las Vegas +3
Player Prop -- Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-115)

DENVER at SEATTLE (SUN)
Spread: Seahawks -5
Moneyline: Seahawks -240 / Broncos +206
Total: 41.5

Here's another game with many new faces, adding to uncertainty. Seattle will trot out a new head coach for the first time in 14 years, and the Broncos start a rookie QB for the first time since John Elway made his debut four decades ago.

ANALYSIS:

• There's very little for me to like about this matchup. The line looks a little high (I'd have it at 4), but I don't see much value in taking the dog. I don't trust rookie QBs making their first start, especially on the road. I have no opinion on either the side nor the total.

PICKS:

None -- Pass

LA RAMS at DETROIT (SNF)
Spread: Lions -4.5
Moneyline: Lions -205 / Rams +180
Total: 52.5

Here's a terrific Sunday Night matchup, with the Lions hosting a rare night primetime game. Get used to seeing the Lions. Detroit is dynamic and unpredictable, making them one of the NFL's most exciting teams. The Rams bring an experienced and dynamic offense, but also have huge voids on defense due to retirements and free-agent losses. This all makes for what's expected to be a high-scoring game. This matchup is the highest total on the board this week.

ANALYSIS:

• Let's begin with the most recent line movement (on Saturday). This number opened at Detroit -3.5 but has been bet up to -4.5. That's a significant adjustment. the total has also moved up--now 52.5. The public expects Detroit to win a high scoring game. It's hard to argue against those predictions given the strength of the Lions offense, contrasted with major question marks on the Rams defense.

• The Lions are a stunning 35-16 ATS (68 pct) in regular season games over the last three years — which is the best three-year ATS stretch since the days of Patriot dominance. Now, they're laying more points as betting markets adjust, but the numbers might now have not caught up just yet. Last season for example, the Lions were everyone's Cinderella team and they STILL ended up with the best ATS in the league at 14-6, covering the number by an average of nearly 4 points per game.

• Detroit's head coach Dan Campbell is known to be a risk taker (perhaps too much so for his team's own good), but that plays into Detroit being arguably the best OVER team in the league. Last season, the Lions were 13-7 to the OVER, including playoff games. Playing inside the covered dome on rubber grass is very conducive to high-scoring games and that especially favors Detroit and their skill players. Under coach Campbell, the Lions have gone OVER in 65 percent of all games aat home. Sunday night, the Lions will face a suspect LAR defense that is expected to surrender lots of yards and points this season. Detroit's passing offense will be too much for the Rams weak secondary to contain and will open things up the running attack.

• I'm not sure if old data factors much into current conditions, but it's probably worth sharing. Credit Action Network for this gem: "Lions beat the Chiefs 21-20 in their opener last year, going under the total, which broke a 12-year streak of overs in Detroit openers. They're 15-2 to the over since 2007 now."

• Matt Stafford returns to Detroit, where he was the lone spark on some really bad Lions teams over the years. That probably plays into the Rams getting their fair share of points, also. It's also interesting that Lions' QB started his career with the Rams, in an odd case of two QBs "trading places."

• In the McVay-Stafford era, the Rams tend to meet expectations....both high and low. They are 24-8 SU as favorites but just 4-10 SU as dogs. So, they tend to beat the teams they should and lose to superior teams.

• Lions QB Goff opening game record.....a perfect 7-0 ATS. FOur of those seasons were with the Rams. Obviously, this QB starts the season ready to play. It's also striking to see how much better Goff plays indoors. He's mediocre outside, just 36-35-1 ATS overall as a starter. But Goff is Stellar indoors, where he's gone 35-17 ATS (including 25-9 ATS over the last three seasons).

• One angle to look at might be betting on the Lions in 2H and 3Q and 4Q. It can't be overstated how much the Rams' defense will miss Donald, both on the field and sidelines. LAR are also missing three CBs plus little depth and experience. In this game, they're tasked with trying to stop or slow down the best indoor offense in the NFL. Look for the Rams outclassed secondary to be worn down by the fourth quarter.

• Counterargument: Laying a hook on a key number (4.5) isn't usually a smart decision. This line did open at -3.5, and nothing other than public money moved the number. Do we trust the linesmaker or the public? Usually, we want to side with the linesmaker. But I also suspect the public is becoming infatuated with Detroit, perhaps deservedly so, which will trigger a flood of money onto the Lions and OVERs many weeks. Watch this number perhaps move even higher closer to gametime.

PICKS:

Side Second Half -- Detroit -2.5 (-105) ..... Note: This is not to be confused with halftime line, which it comes out in gametime--this is the pregame 2H spread
Player Prop -- Lions RB Montgomery OVER 55.5 yards (-115)

STILL PENDING:
Monday Night Football Write Up and Picks

UPDATED -- MY CONTEST PICKS (ENTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
GOLDEN NUGGET LINES / PICKS -- WEEK 1

TICKET 1:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
SO CARL +10
LOUVL -28
ILL +5.5

TICKET 2:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
SO CARL +10
FL INTL +6.5
ILL +5.5

TICKET 3:
OK ST -7.5
OLD DOMIN +2.5
SJOSE ST +6.5
MISS ST +6.5
CAL +13
VA +2
UL MONROE +13

CIRCA MILLION LINES / PICKS -- WEEK 1

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST LINES / PICKS -- WEEK 1

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