2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 70
LOSSES — 60
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$133
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-8 (-$275)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,867
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 9):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 9 REPORT HERE
Two-Team Teaser – HOUSTON +8/CLEVELAND +8 (-125) … PUSH
Pick: Full-Game Total: DEN-BAL UNDER 46.5 ... L
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 vs. MIN ... L
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +3 vs. MIN (-115) ... W
Full-Game Side: ATLANTA -3 vs. DAL (-115) ... W
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +1.5 vs. LAC ... L
First-Quarter Side: CAROLINA +1 vs. NOR (+115) ... L
Full-Game Side: ARIZONA -1 vs. CHI ... W
Full-Game Side: BUFFALO -6 vs. MIA ... L
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -1.5 vs. SEA ... W
Full-Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +3.5 vs. TEN ... W
First-Half SIDE: NEW ENGLAND +2.5 vs. TEN ... L
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford OVER 237.5 passing yards ... W
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO OVER 235.5 passing yards (-115) ... L
Player Prop: PHI WR BROWN longest reception OVER 26.5 yards ... L
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 10)
PLAYER PROP -- CINCINNATI VS. BALTIMORE (TNF)
I tend to avoid wagering on high-totalled rivalry games because they are often so wildly unpredictable. The increased likelihood of lots of scoring by both teams, two explosive offenses, and high-than-average passing plays amplifies variance. As a sports bettor, I always want to reduce variance. Give me the "boring" three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust games anyday instead.
So, tonight's Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup is precisely the type of game to avoid. Only a month ago, these AFC North division rivals played a 41-38 shootout won by the Ravens in OT. Now, they're hosting this rematch off a short week. This begs a natural question -- why not just bet the OVER? That's probably the right play, even though this is one of the highest totals of the NFL season so far at O/U 53. Perfect weather is forecast in Baltimore Thursday night, which makes for ideal conditions for both passing games. Most bettors expect the OVER to hit as I’ve seen up to 75 percent of picks on that side of the total.
In games expected to be shootouts, most player props are skewed with above-average numbers. This fact tonight leads me to go “contrarian” against a high number as well as to fade the overwhelming public perception of the player--even though he's a legitimate MVP candidate. I'm betting UNDER on Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's rushing projection, which is 48.5 yards. Wagering on Jackson-related props is always risky because he can be such a dynamic player (talk about high variance!), but the market may have been slow to act to a few developments this week.
First, let's discuss the fact Jackson might not be at 100 percent. He missed multiple days of practice each of the past two weeks. That's often irrelevant (and overrated) as a factor, but it shows Jackson's back-knee injuries were enough to disrupt his usual preparation routine. His knee injury kept him out of practice Tuesday. Jackson also missed two practices with knee and back injuries last week. Even though he played and was effective in last Sunday’s rout of Denver at home, he rushed only three times for just 4 yards. The 3 rushing attempts was a significant decline from his season average, which shows perhaps that Jackson won't be called upon to use his legs as much, which poses too many risks.
Given Jackson's impressive passing numbers this season, why risk him as a runner? The Ravens have been a scoring machine most of the season. Jackson also ranks #3 in passing yardage, #2 in touchdown passes, and is #1 according to some metrics on QB ratings. Add the fact RB D. Henry has been enjoying a monster season (his rushing total tonight is 90.5 yards), and that's likely to diminish the potential of Jackson running the ball. Jackson's last four rushing totals have been 4-42-56-40, meaning the last 3/4 went under tonight's total, and three of those games were with Jackson fully healthy. Of course, given his history, Jackson could break a long run at any time, so these props are always risky. Cincinnati's defense is also vulnerable, but that could also make things easy elsewhere (passing yardage, RB Henry rushing, etc.) so Jackson doesn't have to rush the ball or get forced out of the pocket enough to trigger extra rushing attempts. Again, I'm counting on last week's Denver game plan to be the template here.
Combining Jackson's injury, recent trends, their offense strengths elsewhere, and a high total that may not have adjusted enough to recent conditions, I'm confident about the UNDER on this player prop.
Pick:
Player Prop -- BALT QB JACKSON UNDER 48.5 rushing yards
::::: more to come :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
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