2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 70
LOSSES — 60
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$133
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-8 (-$275)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,867
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 9):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 9 REPORT HERE
Two-Team Teaser – HOUSTON +8/CLEVELAND +8 (-125) … PUSH
Pick: Full-Game Total: DEN-BAL UNDER 46.5 ... L
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 vs. MIN ... L
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +3 vs. MIN (-115) ... W
Full-Game Side: ATLANTA -3 vs. DAL (-115) ... W
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +1.5 vs. LAC ... L
First-Quarter Side: CAROLINA +1 vs. NOR (+115) ... L
Full-Game Side: ARIZONA -1 vs. CHI ... W
Full-Game Side: BUFFALO -6 vs. MIA ... L
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -1.5 vs. SEA ... W
Full-Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +3.5 vs. TEN ... W
First-Half SIDE: NEW ENGLAND +2.5 vs. TEN ... L
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford OVER 237.5 passing yards ... W
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO OVER 235.5 passing yards (-115) ... L
Player Prop: PHI WR BROWN longest reception OVER 26.5 yards ... L
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 10)
PLAYER PROP -- CINCINNATI VS. BALTIMORE (TNF)
I tend to avoid wagering on high-totalled rivalry games because they are often so wildly unpredictable. The increased likelihood of lots of scoring by both teams, two explosive offenses, and high-than-average passing plays amplifies variance. As a sports bettor, I always want to reduce variance. Give me the "boring" three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust games anyday instead.
So, tonight's Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup is precisely the type of game to avoid. Only a month ago, these AFC North division rivals played a 41-38 shootout won by the Ravens in OT. Now, they're hosting this rematch off a short week. This begs a natural question -- why not just bet the OVER? That's probably the right play, even though this is one of the highest totals of the NFL season so far at O/U 53. Perfect weather is forecast in Baltimore Thursday night, which makes for ideal conditions for both passing games. Most bettors expect the OVER to hit as I’ve seen up to 75 percent of picks on that side of the total.
In games expected to be shootouts, most player props are skewed with above-average numbers. This fact tonight leads me to go “contrarian” against a high number as well as to fade the overwhelming public perception of the player--even though he's a legitimate MVP candidate. I'm betting UNDER on Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's rushing projection, which is 48.5 yards. Wagering on Jackson-related props is always risky because he can be such a dynamic player (talk about high variance!), but the market may have been slow to act to a few developments this week.
First, let's discuss the fact Jackson might not be at 100 percent. He missed multiple days of practice each of the past two weeks. That's often irrelevant (and overrated) as a factor, but it shows Jackson's back-knee injuries were enough to disrupt his usual preparation routine. His knee injury kept him out of practice Tuesday. Jackson also missed two practices with knee and back injuries last week. Even though he played and was effective in last Sunday’s rout of Denver at home, he rushed only three times for just 4 yards. The 3 rushing attempts was a significant decline from his season average, which shows perhaps that Jackson won't be called upon to use his legs as much, which poses too many risks.
Given Jackson's impressive passing numbers this season, why risk him as a runner? The Ravens have been a scoring machine most of the season. Jackson also ranks #3 in passing yardage, #2 in touchdown passes, and is #1 according to some metrics on QB ratings. Add the fact RB D. Henry has been enjoying a monster season (his rushing total tonight is 90.5 yards), and that's likely to diminish the potential of Jackson running the ball. Jackson's last four rushing totals have been 4-42-56-40, meaning the last 3/4 went under tonight's total, and three of those games were with Jackson fully healthy. Of course, given his history, Jackson could break a long run at any time, so these props are always risky. Cincinnati's defense is also vulnerable, but that could also make things easy elsewhere (passing yardage, RB Henry rushing, etc.) so Jackson doesn't have to rush the ball or get forced out of the pocket enough to trigger extra rushing attempts. Again, I'm counting on last week's Denver game plan to be the template here.
Combining Jackson's injury, recent trends, their offense strengths elsewhere, and a high total that may not have adjusted enough to recent conditions, I'm confident about the UNDER on this player prop.
Pick:
Player Prop -- BALT QB JACKSON UNDER 48.5 rushing yards
THREE TEASER PLAYS – MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA CHARGERS
This looks like an excellent week for teasers. That's because multiple superior teams are favored by roughly a touchdown and are playing inferior banged-up opponents. The strongest of these picks is the Vikings, followed by the Chargers, along with the 49ers because they're also too good a value to pass up. Accordingly, I'm making a trio-robin of these three favorites and teasing them down in what amounts to three wagers, even with the -125 vig. Here's an explanation for each team and teaser wager:
Vikings (teased from -6.5 down to .5) -- Minnesota (6-2) travels to Jacksonville (2-7) as a big road favorite. Vikings turned things around last week after a two-game losing streak. The Jaguars staged an impressive comeback in their game and nearly shocked the Eagles on the road, before losing (but covering). The big factor in this matchup is injuries. The Vikings are getting healthier and are at full strength again, particularly at receiver. They should feast on the NFL's worst pass defense that gets lit up each time they play a good passing team. WR Jefferson should get a dozen touches. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are in miserable shape. Not only is QB T. Lawrence expected to miss the game with an injury, leaving ex-Patriot Mac Jones to make his first start in Jacksonville, but as many as EIGHT starters could be sidelined. Minnesota’s defensive front which was so effective versus Indy last week should apply lots of pressure again, get to the new QB, force some mistakes, and move the ball well through the air to fulfill bettors’ expectations. I like this pick as a side bet under a TD, and so teasing them down looks ever stronger as a play. It's hard to imagine how the Jags put up a similar fight as we saw last week (they roared back after being down 16-0) with so many injuries and a new QB starting his first time for a new team.
49ers (teased from -6.5 down to .5) -- San Francisco (4-4) is as healthy as they've been since Week #1 and come off a bye. They also have a perfect shot to make a stretch run to save their season, which has been somewhat of a disappointment. We should expect the Niners to come in highly motivated and ready to take care of business. Tampa Bay would normally be a tough adversary and a great pick at home--getting a generous number of points. However, coming off a short week (they played last MNF) there's the major disadvantage of only half the prep time. Add the fact the Bucs could be emotionally deflated after a great effort at Kansas City (nearly pulling off the upset of the year, before losing in OT) and now have to face the other Super Bowl entrant from last season. I wouldn't typically play a road fave here. However, add the fact that San Francisco just seems like a totally different team when RB C. McCaffery is in the lineup, and he's almost certain to start this week after missing several games. San Francisco already ranks in the top-third of the league in most statistical categories, and that's despite their .500 record and a slew of injuries to skill position players. With the return of those key players, especially in offense, San Francisco should be in great position to make a run, which starts with a road win this week. Side Note: Credit the Bucs for some feisty play, especially in the passing game. Despite losing their top two WRs each of the last two weeks, that hasn't slowed Tampa Bay in offensive production and scoring. However, I'm counting on these missing parts to finally catch up with them this week.
Chargers (teased from -7.5 down to -1.5) -- It's hard to see the dreadful 2-6 Titans going on the road and upsetting a very good defensive team. Tennessee ranks dead last in points scored at just 17 PPG. Their two victories were against New England and (depleted) Miami. The Chargers have played a soft schedule but they've allowed an NFL-low 101 points this season, which averages just 13 PPG. Barring another offensive shitshow like the Chargers pulled a few weeks ago in Phoenix in MNF, the Bolts should win and cover. LA Chargers have taken care of business against bad teams this season, outscoring the Saints, Panthers, Raiders, and Browns by a 101-31 point margin. They may struggle when competition is strong as we've seen in losses to the Steelers and Chiefs. And the old Chargers likely would blow a game like this one. But since HC Harbaugh has taken over, this team is clearly more focused and takes care of business when they should. As for the Titans, their defense appears to have fallen apart after a strong start. They also return QB W. Levis to the starting QB position, who was time bomb in most of his starts this season. Tick, tick, tick…Levis explodes against with a turnover again with the game on the line. I won't lay the -7.5 on the Chargers with the pointspread, opting instead to play them on a teaser (and perhaps the moneyline).
Picks:
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / SFO -.5 (-125)
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)
2-Team Teaser: SFO -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)
MINNESOTA VS. JACKSONVILLE -- VIKINGS -6.5
- For the Jaguars, it's debatable how much of a decline the shift from QB T. Lawrence to backup M. Jones will be. Jones did start several games with his former team as a Patriot, and Lawrence hasn't exactly been reliable in what's been a very disappointing season. The trouble in Jacksonville is elsewhere. They have a terrible defense -- 31st in yards allowed, 32nd in yards per play, and 30th in points allowed. Now, they face one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. As for newcomer Jones' supporting cast, it's going to be thin. The Jags second favorite WR target C. Kirk just suffered a season-ending injury. Two other starting receivers and all three running backs are questionable, as well. The offensive line just traded away one of their best players (tackle C. Robinson) to the Vikings, and guard E. Cleveland is sidelined. A new backup QB behind a fragile line with little proven talent around him should have problems all day versus an aggressive defense. So long as Minnesota’s team bus makes it to the stadium, they should win and cover in this one given so many obvious advantages.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: MINNESOTA -6.5 (-115) vs. JAX
PLAYER PROP: ATLANTA VS. NEW ORLEANS
- Falcons’ Bijan Robinson is evolving into one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs. Since Atlanta began using him more in the offense, the Falcons have been winning games and looking impressive doing so. If you really watch Robinson, he has great breaking-tackle ability and I've seen him lunge forward for extra yardage when many RBs tend to play it safe and go down. Of course, this type of player is a higher risk for injury, also. Look for Robinson to get plenty of carries, but also enough targets in the air to break this low yardage total. The past two weeks, he caught 7 passes in both games, and has become QB Cousins' safety-valve of a target against heavy passes rushes (which the Saints this week will likely do as a good pressure defense). Robinson has easily soared over this low yardage number in all of his past three games, taking passes for 50-43-40 yard counts respectively in those games. On the opposite side of the ball, it's tough to say what mindset New Orleans will be in after firing the awful head coach in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. But I'm willing to venture a guess the defense could have problems stopping their first-place rivals who are moving the ball well and scoring points. Robinson should be able to eclipse this low number, so long as he gets close to his recent number of pass receptions. Once again, I can't stress enough how much breakaway potential Robinson has, and we've seen the Saints this season surrender some long runs to RBs. Let's just hope we can get one of those on a pass play.
Pick:
Player Prop: ATL RB ROBINSON OVER 26.5 receiving yards
INDIANAPOLIS VS. BUFFALO: COLTS +4
- One of the toughest things to do in sports gambling is betting on a team that just let you down. You know the saying – fool me once….fool me twice, etc. The Colts blew it last week in what was a very winnable game (at Minnesota), and now are getting points at home versus one of the AFC's top teams. Watching Indy's offense last week was painful, as the QB change from Richardson (benched) to Flacco was supposed to solidify the team and spark a run. Instead, the receiver corps pulled a disappearing act and the Colts played their worst game of the season. Now, they face another top-level team, so there's reluctance to put down money and get burned again. What compels me to make this wager, however, is anticipation Buffalo may come in flat. They've won the AFC East division by default, particularly after beating a feisty Miami team last week at home. In fact, the Bills are currently riding a 4-game winning streak. If any game on the BUF schedule calls for a letdown, it's probably this one. We witnessed a similar situation earlier in the season when Pittsburgh came into Indy and was pretty much dominated. I doubt that happens here, but we should see a better effort from the Colts this week, who are healthy. And let's not forget this remains one of the NFL's best ATS teams, so far, at 6-2 this season. Aside from last week's loss, Indy has played close games--win or lose. Let's also note the Colts are 3-1 at home this season, despite their 4-5 overall record. Catching the +4 on this line is critical. I wouldn't be as enthusiastic at +3 or +3.5.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. BUF
PLAYER PROP: DENVER VS. KANSAS CITY
- It's rare for me to wager on such an obvious crowd-pleasing prop. If there's any value at all attached to wagering for/against popular players, it's almost always fading the public perception of a superstar. That's why it's bizarre to see Chiefs' QB P. Mahomes listed at only 234.5 passing yards this week against Denver, which compels me to go OVER on this wager. You can almost never be accused of making a bad bet when wagering on arguably the best QB in the game today playing in mid-season form, while also catching a lower-than-average projection. First, an examination of Mahomes passing yardage shows an upward trajectory. Despite being 8-0, Kansas City's pass offense didn't produce big numbers early in the season. But now, the Chiefs' offense is picking up steam. Mahomes has gone OVER this number in 4 of his past 5 games, posting 291-262-154-331-245 yards respectively. The relatively low O/U on Mahomes this week is likely influenced by Denver's alleged "good defense," but are they really special? The Broncos' defensive rankings appear to be skewed by playing a shitpile of miserable offenses -- including Carolina, New Orleans (with QB injured), and Las Vegas. But what really motivates a wager here is anticipation Denver will feel some fatigue this week. Playing back-to-back road games at Baltimore (last week) and Kansas City (this week) might be as tough a two-step as there is for any NFL defense, and after the Broncos got torched by 41 points last week against the Ravens (including 280 passing yards to Jackson who only threw a few passes in the 4Q due to the blowout, I don't see the defense suddenly improving in one of the NFL's toughest stadiums for the visitor to win. If my analysis is wrong and Kansas City struggles, that could also be good for Mahomes’ passing stats as he’ll keep on throwing. Six of KC’s 8 wins were by one score or less, so there’s a pattern of the Chiefs playing close games, meaning there’s fewer run out the clock rushing plays that usually happen with dominant teams. I'd probably have this O/U up around the 250-255 mark, giving us what I perceive to be a good value. It's also a bonus with the Chiefs on any OVER because they are so explosive and have a receiver corps that's very good at yards-after-the-catch. If I go down in flames and lose this bet, at least it’s going to be with a ticket on one of the best players in football. I’m comfortable with that prospect.
Pick:
Player Prop: KC QB MAHOMES OVER 234.5 passing yards
NY JETS VS. ARIZONA: FIRST-HALF BET / MONEYLINE BET
- Why are so many bettors still so in love with the Jets? I mean, they're 3-6 and are favored against a first-place opponent – on the road? W.T. F.? Prior to beating Houston 10 days ago (in a game they easily could have lost, as the final score was very deceiving) the Jets had lost five straight. The offense hasn't clicked all year long, even with the midseason acquisitions at WR. If there's any team that was grotesquely overrated coming into the season, it was this one. Look up the word "fraud" in the dictionary and see a picture of the Jets, who are already on head coach number 2 this season. And they're favored this week even though they're 1-4 on the road with the lone victory at horrible Tennessee? Really? Okay, rant over. Arizona (5-4) appears to be a steal at +1.5 for the game, but an even more compelling wager is to take the Cardinals in the first-half getting a half point. Arizona is a remarkable turnaround story, this despite playing a murderous schedule which includes -- Chicago, LA Chargers, Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington, Detroit, LA Rams, Buffalo, and Miami (with Tua). Show me any easy opponent in that bunch. You can’t. In fact, the Jets come in with the WORST record of any opponent the Cardinals have faced, so far. Statistically, Arizona scores about 3 points more on average in the 1H than the Jets. The Cardinals defense was supposed to be one of the NFL's worst, but has very quietly risen to #19 in the league in points allowed, surrendering just 17 PPG in its last three meetings. Perhaps the Jets aren't really as bad as their 3-6 W-L record indicates. Nevertheless, I'm happy to fade outdated betting market perceptions that this team deserves to be favored on the road against an opponent that's playing very well the past month. I'm also adding a wager on the Cardinals on the moneyline, getting +108.
Picks:
First-Half Side: ARIZONA +.5 (-115)
Full-Game Moneyline: ARIZONA +108
PHILADELPHIA VS. DALLAS: COWBOYS +7.5
- Let's conclude this week's analysis and picks with a shocker. I'm betting on Dallas. Yeah, the Cowboys are always the most overrated, underachieving NFL team of the century, and their season is very close to crashing off a cliff and bursting into flames. However, this is a great spot to "buy low," especially versus an over-inflated opponent that's historically had trouble in Dallas. The big news in Dallas this week was the QB change, as Prescott is sidelined and backup C. Rush is starting. The offensive shakeup and new face in the huddle might be a good thing, as (overrated-overpaid) Prescott struggled much of this season. Rush has also played remarkably well when called upon, even though his resume is thin. Rush has a career 5-1 W-L record as the Cowboys' starter, which scored 20+ points in 5/6 games. Rush won't put up any amazing stats, but he doesn't make many mistakes either, evidenced by a 9-6 TD/INT ratio, 60 pct. career completions, and a respectable 81.0 passer rating. Even though Dallas has shit the bed in suburban Arlington most of the past season, getting blown out by multiple opponents, the Cowboys are a stunningly great 17-1 SU in their past 18 division home games. Historically, Philadelphia has not played well in Dallas as QB J. Hurts is winless at 0-3 in Dallas. The Cowboys expect their top defensive player to return with pass rusher Parsons back in the lineup, and WR Lamb will also reportedly play. This game should land much closer than the line indicates. Even with all the Dallas internal drama and dysfunction, they're certainly not a touchdown worse than the Eagles. So, getting the hook on the 7 is a bonus gift. I'll call this one 27-23 for Philadelphia, but a Cowboys' cover. Also, call me crazy but Dallas on the moneyline at +315 might be worth a little sugar.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: DALLAS +7.5 vs. PHI
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop -- BALT QB JACKSON UNDER 48.5 rushing yards...[W]
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / SFO -.5 (-125)
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)
2-Team Teaser: SFO -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)
Full-Game Side: MINNESOTA -6.5 (-115) vs. JAX
Player Prop: ATL RB ROBINSON OVER 26.5 receiving yards
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. BUF
Player Prop: KC QB MAHOMES OVER 234.5 passing yards
First-Half Side: ARIZONA +.5 (-115)
Full-Game Moneyline: ARIZONA +108
Full-Game Side: DALLAS +7.5 vs. PHI
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