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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-10 (-$636)
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 13):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 13 REPORT HERE
Player Prop — NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115) … L}
Player Prop — CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing-receiving yards (-117) …{W}
Player Prop — LV vs. KC CARLSON OVER 5.5 points (-121) …{L}
Full-Game Side — PIT vs. CIN: STEELERS +3 (-120) …{W}
First-Half Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +3.5 (-115) …{L}
Full-Game Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +6 …{L}
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. NOR: NEW ORLEANS +3 (-120) …{L}
Player Prop — LAR vs. NOR QB CARR over 215.5 passing yards …{L}
Full-Game Side — TB vs. CAR: TAMPA -5.5 …{L}
Player Prop: TB vs. CAR QB MAYFIELD over 1.5 TD passes (-115) …{L}
Full-Game Side — LAC vs. ATL: ATLANTA +1.5 .. …{L}
Full-Game Side – INDY vs. NWE: NEW ENGLAND +3 (-120) …{W}
Player Prop — SEA vs. NYJ: QB SMITH UNDER 234.5 passing yards (-115) …{W}
Full-Game Side — SFO vs. BUF: SAN FRANCISCO +7 …{L}
Player Prop -- CLE vs DEN: DEN WR C. Sutton OVER 66.5 receiving yards …{W}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 14)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- PLAYER PROP
Who wants to bet against the 11-1 Detroit Lions right now? I sure don't. Taking the visiting Green Bay Packers +3.5 in a division rivalry game would normally be automatic. However, I see greener pastures elsewhere, most notably in a rushing-yardage player prop.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs has rushed for nearly 1,000 yards on 221 attempts, which averages out to 82.3 YPG. However, his O/U on yardage is only 68.5 in this matchup. Jacobs is coming off a subpar game vs. Miami (but then, Green Bay won easily--so there was no urgency to overuse Jacobs). That may trigger a more motivated effort in this game, which is the Packers' biggest test this season. In this first matchup, which was a month ago, Detroit dominated the Packers in Green Bay. That said, Jacobs still picked up 95 yards on 13 carries. Jacobs has played 3 games vs. Detroit, averaging 92 YPG. Jacobs has also hit the OVER on his rushing yardage O/U in 8 of 12 games this season.
The last thing the Packers want is an offensive shootout. Few teams can compete with the Lions' explosive offense, so look for Green Bay to try to maintain ball control, with more runs that usual (unless they fall badly behind). The Packers already run more than league average, 52 percent of the time (passing 48 percent). That comes out to 31 rush attempts per game, and Jacobs has taken a whopping 59 percent of all team carries (221 for the season). This all means Jacobs should get a fair number of touches.
Don't be fooled by the Lions' impressive defensive ranking against the run this season. They are the NFL's #5 rushing defense, but that's due in some measure to opponents trailing in most second halves and abandoning the run while having to pass. When it comes to yards-per-carry, Detroit is actually very average--ranking #15 (4.4 YPC). If Jacobs gets anywhere near his 20 carries per game on Thursday, he'll only need about 3.8 YPC to reach the 69 yard mark.
However, the biggest factor in the Jacobs OVER 68.5 yards player prop is Detroit's injury report on defense. The Lions will be thin on the defensive line and at linebacker, but relatively healthy in the secondary, which probably adds to more rushing carries in the Packers' game plan. Of course, the biggest injury by far was to DE A. Hutchinson, a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate prior to his season ending six weeks ago. But since then, the Lions have lost more starters and look particularly vulnerable this week when matched up against a good offense. LT T. Decker....DL J. Paschal (knee)....DL L. Onwuzurike (hamstring)....and DT DJ Reader (shoulder) all missed practices this week. For the second day in a row, as of Wednesday the Lions were down four key linemen and the news doesn’t look good for any of them, most notably Decker. “I don’t feel as good about Decker for this week,” Lions head coach Campbell said on Tuesday. Many handicappers (myself included) tend to overestimate the impact of defensive injuries. The dropoff in talent isn't always what it seems. Nonetheless, if Jacobs' O/U was 68.5 versus a healthy Lions' defense, the OVER would still be a good bet based on the data. The fact we also get to factor in a weaker front 4/7 from the Lions in this matchup only adds to its appeal.
Pick:
Player Prop -- GB vs. DET: LIONS RB J. JACOBS OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
:::::More to come:::::
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 13 (For those who just want the picks):
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