2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 104
LOSSES — 96
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$790
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-8 (-$205)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,210
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
Notes: This has been a brutally tough football season, with lots of disappointments. Many public handicappers will conveniently point to all the bad beats they suffered, and I’ve had more than my share. However, after 200 wagers (and counting), we are way past the phase where wins/losses can be explained by variance. Fact is, my results are unsatisfactory. I have to take responsibility for that. No one wants to read about excuses. My pledge here is to continue working hard and handicapping games. Perhaps when the season ends, I’ll use some extra time to conduct a post-mortem and see what mistakes were made, and then try and correct them. However, for the final four weeks of the regular season, followed by the playoffs, I’ll keep on looking for betting opportunities and sharing them with readers. Thanks to the good people at Betcoin.ag for providing this public platform and opportunity.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 15):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 15 REPORT HERE
First-Half Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)…{W}
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)…{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Ravens RB Henry UNDER 102.5 rushing yards (-115)…{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Giants Kicker Gano OVER 4.5 points…{L}
NYJ vs. JAX: First-Half: Jaguars +2.5…{W}
NYJ vs. JAX: Full Game: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)…{L}
KC vs. CLE: Team Total Browns UNDER 20.5 (-120)…{W}
PIT vs. PHI: 1st Qtr. Steelers +.5 (half point) {-120)…{L}
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers +5.5…{L}
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers Kicker Boswell OVER 6.5 points…{W}
DAL vs. CAR: Cowboys Kicker Aubrey UNDER 7.5 points (-120)…{L}
NWE vs. ARZ: Moneyline Cardinals (-260)…{W}
ATL vs. LVR: 1st Half Raiders +3 (-115)…{L}
ATL vs. LVR: Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points…{L}
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 — Panthers (+3900)…{L}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 16)
NEW–MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES FUTURES BET:
- I believe the Philadelphia Eagles should be favored to win the NFC Championship. Given this week's unique circumstances pertaining to each contending team, sports bettors now have a rare value-based wagering enticement on what I consider to be the best NFL futures wager on the board.
Huge disclaimer–this is relevant as of pre-Week 16. This situation could change based on upcoming results.
- The Detroit Lions currently hold the top spot as the odds-on favorite to reach and ultimately win this year's Super Bowl.
[Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas]
Detroit +400
Buffalo +440
Philadelphia +460
Kansas City +500
Baltimore +810
A persuasive argument can be made for any of the five current favorites – including the Lions, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and/or Ravens. Moreover, the secondary tier of contending teams is also a compelling group – which includes the Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Rams. Anyone who’s followed the NFL this season understands that any one of these teams could win the Super Bowl with the right path, strong performances, and a few breaks along the way. Hence, picking one team to emerge at the top of the heap becomes a tall task fraught with risk.
The NFC has several notable distinctions at the moment. First and foremost, betting markets have been slow to react to changing conditions. Odds based on outdated perceptions are ripe with opportunity.
A major factor in winning the conference championship is getting a first-round bye in the playoffs. Two teams have the first-round off in the playoffs -- which are the top seeds from each conference. Those two teams are the only teams out of the combined playoff field of 14 which will have a week off. Not only do these top seeds avoid risking an upset loss in the Wild Card round, they also have an extra week to get healthier and game plan for the Divisional round. They're also awarded with home field advantage for each playoff game. This is a powerful edge. Fact: Since 1990, 50 percent of all Super Bowl teams (32 of 64) have been top seeds.
Three NFC teams have a realistic chance at earning the top seed – including Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. All three teams are tied with identical 12-2 records. However, the Lions enjoy the edge because of tiebreakers (conference wins and losses during the regular season). But should Detroit really be the favorite right now?
With three weeks still to play, take a look at the schedule of opponents for these three teams:
Detroit:
- at Chicago
- at San Francisco
- home vs. Minnesota
Philadelphia:
- at Washington
- home vs. Dallas
- home vs. NY Giants
Minnesota:
- at Seattle
- home vs. Green Bay
- at Detroit
Note how Philadelphia enjoys several advantages going forward. First, they play two home games, while their rivals must play two road games. Second, Detroit and Minnesota will face each other in the final week, which eliminates the loser of that game. Third, Philadelphia enjoys a far easier schedule. Washington could pose trouble this coming weekend, but the final two weeks should be easy victories. It’s reasonable to expect the Eagles will win all three games. If Philadelphia wins three games and the Lions lose a game, the Eagles earn the top seed. As for Minnesota, that’s a murderously difficult schedule ahead.
If Philadelphia earns the NFC’s top seed, they’ll be very difficult to beat in the playoffs. Here are several reasons why the Eagles deserve to be favored:
The Eagles are riding the NFL’s longest win streak at the moment, which is currently at 10 games. If they run the table the next three weeks (they’ll be favored in all three games), Philadelphia enters the playoffs on the 13-game winning streak.
The Eagles are 6-1 straight up at home this season, which is expected to be 8-1 at season’s end (hosting home games vs. the Cowboys and Giants, which will be big underdogs). Beating the Eagles in Philadelphia (in frigid January) won’t be easy.
The Eagles may be the healthiest of any of the top-five betting favorites in either conference. Contrast this fact with Detroit’s injury situation right now, which is dire (more on this point to come). Since the Lions are the primary threat in the NFC as favorites to win the conference, the contrast in injuries to both of these teams cannot be overstated.
The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in rushing offense (yards per game). The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in total defense (yards allowed per game). A great rushing attack and a great defense are the two most important factors in winning playoff games. A combination of these two factors is lethal.
The Eagles are a proven winner capable of playing well outdoors in the cold. Contrast this fact with the two primary threats to the Eagles in the NFC – Detroit and Minnesota – which are indoor (dome) teams. Does anyone think the Lions or Vikings would be favored to win in Philadelphia in late January? Note: Green Bay could be a problem for the Eagles, assuming they reach the NFC Championship game–the Packers are an outdoor team built for the cold. However, the Packers would have to win two playoff games to get there, including perhaps upsetting the Lions in Detroit.
Many bettors (and fans) may have forgotten that Philadelphia won the NFC Championship just two seasons ago, destroying San Francisco by 24 points at home. Many of the Eagles' players have been in this pressure spot before, whereas few players from the other teams in the NFC have ever won a conference championship game. Experience advantage to Philadelphia.
Now, here are the current odds:
Current Odds of Philadelphia Eagles Winning the NFC Championship:
MGM +210
William Hill +200
Westgate +195
Circa +190
Stations +180
Let’s agree the Lions are the major threat to the Eagles as the prospective NFC favorite. Now, let’s examine their status as of pre-Week 16:
In their last three games, the Lions have failed to cover a pointspread. All were home games, where they should have rolled. They were fortunate to steal a 3-point win hosting Chicago on Thanksgiving Day (a late Chicago coaching blunder cost the Bears the massive upset). They beat the rival Packers at home on a late field goal. And the Lions got demolished by Buffalo last week. This is not the look of a betting favorite to win the NFC.
The Lions defense has surrendered a whopping 99 points in their last three games. That mark is the worst in the NFL. Detroit’s defense has always been suspect, as they tend to win games by outscoring opponents. Last week’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo showed that might not be possible when facing strong opponents.
The Lions are utterly decimated with injuries right now:
The Lions' injured reserve list was already overloaded with defenders — star defensive end Aiden Hutchinson (broken leg), defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (knee), linebacker Malcom Rodriguez (torn ACL), cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (hamstring), safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (undisclosed), linebacker Alex Anzalone (forearm), linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee), linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck), defensive end Marcus Davenport (triceps), defensive tackle David Bada (Achilles), defensive end John Cominsky (knee) and defensive end Nate Lynn (shoulder). That’s a dozen, plus three more during the (Buffalo Bills loss).
Read More: Lions' injuries are becoming recurring nightmare in otherwise dream season
Speaking of injuries, Detroit just lost one of its best offensive players for the season. RB David Montgomery, one half of the great Lions rushing backfield is done for the year.
Finally, as painful as it is to write this, we can’t trust Lions head coach Dan Campbell. He’s done an amazing job turning around the Lions. His team, and game decisions, are fun to watch. However, he’s made some monumental blunders from the sideline. Consider last week’s moronic onside kick with nearly 9 minutes left in the game, and Detroit trailing by 10 points. Onside kicks are nearly impossible to pull off, especially with this season’s rule changes. Campbell’s decision to attempt an onside kick in what was still a winnable game reveals his risky coaching to be a double-edged sword. I’ll fade that uncertainty in the playoffs versus a good team like the Eagles.
Despite all these problems, and the very realistic prospect that the Detroit Lions could end up as the #2 seed, and would then play an extra game – and assuming they win both games in the first two rounds (likely facing the Packers again), and then as an indoors dome team, might have to play a conference championship game outdoors in freezing weather, with so many injuries, without it’s best running back, makes this an ideal situation to fade.
Note that “fading” a bet, means taking the opposite side (or the other team).
Summation:
The Philadelphia Eagles are the most well-rounded team in the NFC at the moment, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They are also the healthiest team now entering the late- and post-season.
The Eagles enjoy the clearest path to the top seed in the NFC. Becoming the #1 seed gives them enormous advantages versus other teams. Philadelphia is very likely to be favored by more than a FG in every game they play until they (potentially) reach the Super Bowl.
The Eagles’ obvious advantages are based on their style of play, rooted in the NFL’s #1 rushing offense (Saquon Barkley appears to be in a mission) combined with #1 ranked defense. History shows this to be a winning formula for winning championships.
All other playoff teams have far more obstacles than the Eagles to winning the conference championship. Assuming Philadelphia gets the top seed, all they must do is win two games. All other opponents face a much tougher path.
Finally, we are getting a great price…..at +210. That’s a terrific number. Getting back more than double our money on all of the above is an exceptional value. And–value is what we should be seeking when betting on any sport, especially the NFL where the margins are slim.
PUTTING MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS:
As a public NFL handicapper, I often get asked – do I actually bet on the games and picks I recommend?
The answer is – yes.
Here’s my betting ticket from the MGM Sportsbook (my wager was made at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, which is part of the MGM chain):
Fly Eagles fly!
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 16 (For those who just want the picks):
Sign up at www.Betcoin.ag today with the promo code NOLAN and get a 100% Bonus on your first deposit (Contact support by chat, ticket or email to claim)
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