2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 112
LOSSES — 101
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$540
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-5 (+$250)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,460
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 16):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 16 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: HOU RB Mixon OVER 60.5 rushing yards…{L}
Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points scored (-130)…{W}
Full-Game Side: TEXANS +3.5…{L}
Player Prop: PIT/BAL OVER 46.5 yards — longest successful field goal (-112)…{W}
Full Game Side: BENGALS -8…{W}
Two-Team Teaser: BENGALS -2 / RAVENS -1 (-125)…{W}
Player Prop: QB DANIELS OVER 30.5 pass attempts…{W}
Full-Game Total: ATL-NYG UNDER 43…{W}
Team Total: FALCONS UNDER 26.5 points…{L}
Full-Game Side: BUCCANEERS -3.5…{L}
Team Total: BUCCANEERS OVER 26.5 points…{L}
Player Prop: RATTLER UNDER 224.5 passing yards…{W}
A NOTE ABOUT MID-WEEK GAMES:
Do "short weeks" favor NFL offenses or defenses?
Since two games will be kicking off on Wednesday, I wanted to determine if the shorter window of preparation time favors offenses or defenses. I was able to gather data from multiple online sources, and update these numbers with more current data from the current season.
More than a decade of results show that NFL teams average scoring about 23 points on Thursday games (which is the primary "short week" day of the week). Contrast this with the usual Sunday-Monday games, which are averaging 22 points this season (note that the high mark of scoring was back in 2020, when teams averaged nearly 25 PPG). However, given there are far fewer Thursday games, the average tends to be skewed by some high-scoring outlers. So, the 1 point differential may not be statistically significant.Bottom Line: NFL scoring isn't impacted by shorter (or longer) preparation times.
For every game, the goal of handicapping should be to identify the best bet of all the possibilities. Yet, most of the time, we fail to do this. Perhaps I should clarify--that I fail to do this, even though I try. Even the winning bets might not have been the best wager we could have made. Why not? It's simple. The answer is time. Identifying a best bet takes considerable amounts of time. With hundreds of props on each game every week, it would take many hours to weigh all the possibilities an determine the probabilities of an outcome on every single proposition.
I believe almost every game is bettable, that is, if you have the time to put in the work. The bet might be a yardage prop, or a quarter bet, or a total, or something else that's not as popular as picking a side. With hundreds of possible wagers and various odds, at least a few will be a little off. It's our objective to identify mispriced odds and then bet on those (perceived) advantages.
This week, I’ll try to identify at least one bet on every NFL game:
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 17)
KANSAS CITY VS. PITTSBURGH (WED.)
- Steelers kicker Chris Boswell leads the NFL in scoring. He's scored 7+ points in 11 of 15 games this season. Usually, good kickers on winning teams are priced at O/U 7.5 points (-110). However, most weeks we see Boswell priced at O/U 6.5 points, despite his accuracy and the outstanding season he is having. There's been a slight adjustment depending on which sportsbook you use, as STN here in Las Vegas listed Boswell at 6.5 (-157). But I checked Westgate, and it's only 6.5 (-130). The -130 price is very bettable, whereas the -157 is not. I'll continue riding Boswell's leg (wait, that doesn't sound right) so long as he's priced in the same range with lesser kickers on mediocre teams. Also note that Boswell has made 12 of 14 attempts beyond 50+ yards, despite kicking in Pittsburgh (a stadium not known for being friendly to long FG kickers). The Steelers have also been sluggish offensively the last few weeks and they face a good Chiefs defense, which could create more FG attempts. Remember, on OVER kicking props, we want ATTEMPTS (and mostly FGs). Nobody in the NFL has been better this season, as Boswell has made 39/42 FG attempts this season, which averages out to nearly 3 per game. It also looks like the weather will be somewhat mild in Pittsburgh today for this time of year -- slight chance of flurries, but no wind. Boswell to the moon.
Pick:
Player Prop: PIT KICKER BOSWELL OVER 6.5 POINTS (-130)
BALTIMORE VS. HOUSTON (WED.)
- We're not supposed to get emotional when betting, but I can't contain my reaction to the sluggish Texans after betting on them several times, yet so often getting screwed by their own stupidity and self-destruction. This team makes more mental mistakes and unforced errors than any team in the league--aside perhaps from the awful NY teams. The only reason they're heading to the playoffs is because they're fortunate to be playing in such a weak division with three sub-par teams. Houston's problem, and something I think will hold them back, is coaching--especially the offense (there's some grumbling that Stroud is being forced into OC Slowik's system and is having trouble adjusting. Watching him regress this season–QB Stroud is too much of a gunslinger, who is overconfident, and makes way too many mistakes. That means interceptions. He's even been quoted many times saying he's going to make throws that are risky because that's "who he is." So, I've bet C.J. Stroud to throw 1+ interceptions in this game (sometimes refered to as a YES/NO prop on the question: "Will Stroud throw an interception?") The lay price is only -115, and I expect he'll air it out again this week and make at least one stupid throw. Stroud threw 2 interceptions last week, and now has 11 for the season. This may be priced within the range of probability, but since Tank Dell is out with injury, he's lost his favorite target (98 receptions this season--now out of the year). The Texans also have an offensive line that can't block. Houston's play-calling is also ridiculous at times, often throwing long balls on short-yardage situations, which is highly risky and creates a good situation for interceptions.
Pick:
Player Prop: HOU QB STROUD TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-115)
SEATTLE VS. CHICAGO (THU.)
- I was surprised to see the O/U at 42.5. This number is likely influenced by fears of December Chicago weather, but bad conditions will not appear to be a factor -- temperature in the 40s, no wind, slight chance of rain. Sounds more like Seattle (note: this is being written three days prior--check the updated forecast). Speaking of Seattle, the Seahawks have surrendered 30-27 points in their last two games. The Bears have been far worse, surrendering 30+ for three straight weeks. Earlier in the season, Chicago had a reputation as a good defense. That's all collapsed lately, as the Bears look like a team that's mailed in their season. Both QBs have something to prove as CHI QB Williams is chasing a few rookie records. Meanwhile, SEA QB Smith comes off two bad games--good chance for him to bounce back here. Seahawks also have a small chance at a playoff spot, but must win. That should keep the fire under the Seahawks' offense for at least another week. Seattle has exceeded its team total in 10/15 games this season. So, I'll also bet the Seahawks' team total to exceed 22.5 points. Note that on both wagers here, we're catching wins on key numbers -- 43 for the game and 23 for Seattle's scoring total. That's a critical factor in this equation.
Picks:
O/U: SEATTLE/CHICAGO OVER 42.5 (full game)
Team Total: SEATTLE OVER 22.5 points (-120)
LA CHARGERS VS. NEW ENGLAND (SAT.)
- The Patriots are getting +5.5 points at home, which is enough to pull the trigger and take the underdog. I don't trust the Chargers to fly to the East Coast and cover a high spread outdoors in 32-degree weather. After a stellar first half of the season, the Bolts' defense has been ripped apart for 67 points in the last two games. Meanwhile, New England has played it close in most homes this season, keeping it to within 6 points or less in 5 of 6 in Foxborough. We also saw the Patriots give Buffalo (maybe the best team in the NFL right now) a very tough game last week, which shows some life despite their lowly 3-12 record. Since QB Maye took over as the starter, NWE is 5-3 ATS. Important--I'm sure this line will drop near gametime. Grab the good number now.
Pick:
Full Game: NEW ENGLAND +5.5
DENVER VS. CINCINNATI (SAT.)
- I wanted to bet the OVER 47.5 (open) but waited a few days on the weather forecast and now that conditions are expected to be ideal (in the 50s!) that catapulted the betting total up two full points to 49.5 (current). Same thing on Denver, which opened at +3.5 and now it's down to +3. I missed two opportunities, but we can still take advantage of some numbers which haven't quite adjusted yet. DEN QB Bo Nix continues to impress -- both in passing skills and leadership. He's become an ideal fit in Sean Payton's offenses, which have been known as explosive. The Broncos have scored 27+ in four straight games. So, I'll go OVER on Denver's team total, listed at 23.5. The Broncos should put up points on one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Moreover, Nix's O/U is listed at a very pedestrian 228.5. I'm not sure why it's so low, given he's exceeded 260+ in 4/5 games (only UNDER was a terrible stat game against INDY, but Denver didn't have to throw in the 4Q of that game, so stats looked ugly). We expect Denver will have to score points here given how high-scoring the Bengals have been. Cincy's defensive statline looks better recently, but that's only because they've faced three garbage-pail backup QBs the last three games (vs. DAL, TEN, and CLE). Now, they get a tougher test. Both teams are among the league leaders in "big plays" (20+ yards) and I can see both QBs completing some long balls. QB Burrow's O/U is nearly 50 yards higher than Nix, despite the Bengals being favored in this game (often the underdog QB enjoys more passing yardage playing catch-up). As their 10-5 record to the OVER this season proves, you can pretty much better OVER on any Cincy prop -- either offensively or defensively -- and have a decent chance of hitting it.
Picks:
Team Total: DENVER OVER 23.5 points
Player Prop: DEN QB NIX OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
ARIZONA VS. LA RAMS (SAT.)
- Arizona may have emotionally surrendered the season after an inexcusable loss at Carolina last week. I can't see them suddenly regrouping in another road game, certain not against a surging Rams' team. Normally, a division battle makes me want to take the points. But these NFC West rivals are headed in completely opposite directions. After being left for dead, the Rams have now won and covered in four straight. As the other three teams in this division imploded (SFO, SEA, ARZ), the Rams now control their own destiny. I expect that will translate into a strong performance at home here, versus a deflated opponent. We've seen the Rams' improvement on both sides of the ball, while the Cardinals did their surprise run earlier and now must go into Week 17 with their best player listed as questionable with a knee injury (RB Connor). After five topsy-turvy seasons, Kyler Murray's time in Phoenix might be winding down as the loss last week (due in part to some bonehead mistakes by Murray). Laying this number seems reasonable. Added Comment: I hoped to bet Rams RB Kyren Williams OVER on both his rushing attempts (21.5) and yardage (92.5). He's carried the rock 23-29-29 attempts in the last three games, so 21.5 is well within range. Moreover, Williams has eclipsed 100+ in 3 of the last 4 games. So, these are good OVER bets, especially against a mediocre defense like the Cardinals. Trouble is, would I make these numbers higher? We rarely see numbers higher than this, so I won't ride the momentum because there's probably no value here. But if you believe in continuity and have insights into the Rams' game plan, Williams rushing attempts and yardage is worth consideration.
Pick:
Full Game: LA RAMS -6
::::: more to come – please check back later :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 17 (For those who just want the picks):
::::: to be posted Saturday PM / Sunday AM :::::
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