Writer’s Note: There’s lots of information contained in these reports. They’re also updated frequently, all the way up until the gametime kickoffs. Every week, I start with a review of my previous picks–with posted results. I also update the outcomes of picks in multiple NFL handicapping contests. Everything is tracked here on this page. However, for those interested only in the analysis and picks every week, please skip past the initial sections and read from the point forward where each game is analyzed. Again, an important reminder–this page is updated multiple times starting on Wednesdays with added games analysis and picks through Sunday morning. Thank you for reading and following.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 1):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report:
17 wins – 13 loses – 1 push (net minus -$125)
Full Game Side -- Baltimore +3 (-120) .... LOST
First Half Side -- Baltimore +1.5 (-120) .... LOST
First Half Total -- BAL/KC UNDER 23.5 (-120) .... WON
Player Prop -- Longest Field Goal (Either Team) OVER 46.5 yards (-115) .... LOST
First Half Total -- GB/PHI UNDER 23.5 (-105) .... LOST
Player Prop -- JAX RB Etienne, Jr. OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115) .... WON
First Half Total -- JAX/MIA UNDER 24 .... PUSH
Player Prop -- BUF WR Samuel OVER 3.5 receptions (+128) .... LOST
First Half Total -- UNDER 23.5 (-105) .... LOST
Full Game Side -- New Orleans -4 .... WON
First Half Total -- UNDER 21 (-115) .... LOST
Player Prop -- NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points .... WON
Full Game Side -- Indianapolis +3 (-115) .... WON
First Half Total -- IND/HOU UNDER 24 (-120) .... WON
Player Prop -- HOU QB Stroud OVER 7.5 rushing yards .... WON
Full Game Side -- NY Giants +1.5 .... LOST
Full Game Total -- MIN/NYG UNDER 41 .... WON
First Half Total -- MIN/ NYG UNDER 20.5 (-120) .... WON
Full Game Side -- Cincinnati -8.5 .... LOST
Moneyline -- Cincinnati (-400) .... Risking $400 to win $100 .... LOST
Full Game Total -- TEN/CHI UNDER 44.5 .... WON
First Half Side -- Dallas +1.5 ..... WON
Full Game Side -- Dallas +2.5 .... WON
Full Game Total -- DAL/CLE OVER 41 .... WON
Full Game Side – Tampa Bay -3.5 .... WON
Team Total Full Game – Tampa Bay OVER 22.5 points (-115) .... WON
First Half Side -- Las Vegas +1.5 (-115) .... WON
Full Game Side -- Las Vegas +3 .... LOST
Player Prop -- Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-115) .... LOST
Second Half Side -- Detroit -2.5 (-105) ..... LOST
Player Prop -- DET RB Montgomery OVER 55.5 yards (-115) .... WON
NFL HANDICAPPING CONTESTS – UPDATED:
Note: I entered four NFL handicapping contests this season – $18,000 was invested in these entries ($2,000 more is slated for a later contest). Results follow:
CIRCA SURVIVOR -- WEEK 1
Ticket 1 -- CIN ..... ELIMINATED
Ticket 2 -- CIN ..... ELIMINATED
Ticket 3 -- CIN ..... ELIMINATED
Ticket 4 -- SEA ..... WON AND ADVANCED
Ticket 5 -- NOR ..... WON AND ADVANCED
Obviously, the Bengals loss was crushing. About 40 percent of the field is gone, and I lost 60 percent of my initial investment--3 out of 5 tickets.
WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST (overall record: 13 wins – 12 losses – pushes)
Ticket 1 -- TB; ATL; TEN; NYJ; DET (finished 2-3)
Ticket 2 -- TB; ATL; DAL; NYJ; DET (finished 3-2)
Ticket 3 -- TB; ATL; TEN; DAL; NYG (finished 2-3)
Ticket 4 -- TB; ATL; TEN; NOR; DET (finished 3-2)
Ticket 5 -- TB; ATL; NYJ; DAL; ARZ (finished 3-2)
Going slightly above .500 isn't going to cut it--but I also avoided disaster, which is positive. Having three 3-2 tickets is acceptable....still disappointing results on two games....ATL and NYJ--also TEN was clearly the right side, but we got horribly unlucky on that result.
CIRCA MILLION (overall record 16 wins – 9 losses – 0 pushes)
Ticket 1 -- LV; DET; TEN; TB; JAX (finished 3-2)
Ticket 2 -- LV; DET; TEN; TB; DAL (finished 3-2)
Ticket 3 -- TB; DET; ARZ; NYJ; LV (finished 3-2)
Ticket 4 -- TB; DET; ARZ; NOR; NYJ (finished 4-1)
Ticket 5 -- LV; DET; DAL; NYJ; NOR (finished 3-2)
NYJ loss on MNF killed what could have been a fantastic start. Still, going 16-9 is a record I'll take every week if I can get there.
GOLDEN NUGGET (overall record 15 wins – 6 losses – 0 pushes)
-TICKET 1: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 .... W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 .... L
SJOSE ST +6.5 .... W
MISS ST +6.5 .... L
SO CARL +10 .... W
LOUVL -28 .... W
ILL +5.5 .... W
-TICKET 2: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 .... W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 .... L
SJOSE ST +6.5 .... W
MISS ST +6.5 .... L
SO CARL +10 .... W
FL INTL +6.5 .... W
ILL +5.5 .... W
-TICKET 3: (finished 5-2)
OK ST -7.5 .... W
OLD DOMIN +2.5 .... L
SJOSE ST +6.5 .... W
MISS ST +6.5 .... L
CAL +13 .... W
VA +2 .... W
UL MONROE +13 .... W
Here's another very strong showing, hitting above 70 percent. This is a great start, especially considering it's heavy on college football. These three tickets all rank in the top-20, though it’s very early in the contest.
WEEK 2 BETTING CONCEPT: TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Most bettors think of "futures" as bets made prior to the season starting. However, in many cases and at most sites, bettors can wager on a futures prospect at any time, even after the season starts.
I never thought much about the value of "timing" a futures bet (emphasis mine -- on "timing"). Most bettors place a bet when it's convenient and then ride out the wager for the rest of the season.
Enter Denny Axel into the discussion.
Denny and I go back 30 years. I say this with 100 percent sincerity when I write that Denny is the best futures handicapper I've ever seen and have ever known. I won't get into it here. But he's a long term winner. And, his analysis is so on the mark and out of the mainstream that it makes perfect sense to coattail his plays. Many seasons, I've had a phone in my hand walking through a casino and got a tip from Denny and ran to the betting window and made a wager. Don't worry, I'm not selling anything here and Denny isn't a tout. He's just a great futures capper.
Case in point: Denny posted this on Thursday. I'll let the text speak for itself (it’s shared here with his permission):
Okay, it's time for my 1st futures bet for this NFL season and I like it a lot. Go ahead and bet $1000 on the Ravens to win their division at +120. A win here will return $2200. At this point in time it looks to me to be the best bet out there. I was gonna tout this last week before they played KC, but I figured they would lose that game and we could then get a better number this week. They got that game out of the way and didn't lose too much ground in their division. The other 3 teams in their division will each have to play KC later on. I'm actually a little surprised we didn't have to lay -110 or -120. I think we will probably have at least a half dozen of these kinds of bets by the end of the year and then we can tally things up and hopefully have another successful season. For those of you that are going to do this, I would advise doing it before their next game, as the Ravens will probably beat the raiders pretty handle and that +120 could go to -120 or even worse. As stated before, time is always of the essence when it comes to futures bets. The Ravens look to me to easily be the class of this division. Good luck to the defenses that watch Jackson go one direction and Henry go the other direction and try to contain them.
My thoughts: I love the fact Denny picks the Ravens to win the division but then waited until Week 2 to get the best number. To me, that's a pro. Showing patience and even expecting a loss. It's something I need to work on which is handicapping the FULL SPECTRUM.
We don't know yet if Baltimore wins the division and the futures bet wins. We'll see. What matters is -- we're getting a great number and the evidence for betting Baltimore is convincing. I would only add that Cleveland is unlikely to win the division, Cincinnati has obvious problems, and Pittshurgh didn't show much last week despite their win (they failed to score a TD).
Baltimore is the best team in this division, and the rest of the field is probably not as strong as feared (especially Cincy). This is a smart bet, and the timing is perfect.
NFL WEEK 2 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
STARTING HYPOTHETICAL BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE.
BUFFALO at MIAMI (THUR)
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Moneyline: Dolphins -134 / Bills +118
Total: 48.5
After the NFL's dull slate of midweek games over the years, we finally get to watch a potentially great matchup. Two AFC East rivals clash in one of the best early-season Thursday night battles in years. Both teams overcame double-digit deficits as home favorites in their opening games, but also failed to cover the line. Buffalo roared back from a 17-3 disadvantage, ultimately winning by 6 (line was -6.5). Miami came back from a 14-0 hole, winning on a last-second field goal by 3 (line was -3.5).
ANALYSIS:
These two teams have seen a lot of each other lately. In the final regular season game back in Jan. 2024, Buffalo beat Miami and won the division crown. Just a week later, the Bills and Dolphins met in the Wild Card game in Buffalo. Buffalo won both games by close margins. Now, the two will meet again, with Miami set as a small home favorite even though they were swept by the Bills 3-0 last season. Early line showed MIA -1.5 which was bet up to -2.5 (currently). Does this reflect concerns about Bills QB Allen's minor injury suffered last week? Could it be more serious than reported? I don't know, but that might explain why Miami money is coming in.
Another question is--how much weight do we give to last week's performances and outcomes? We can agree the Dolphins had an excuse for their slow start. After all, they were playing Jacksonville (now healthy), which is a bona fide playoff contender. The Bills don't have such an excuse and should have performed better versus lowly Arizona, surrendering 28 points, including a long KO return. To Buffalo's credit, their 6.1 YPP (last week) will be enough to win most games. Miami posted 400 yards of total offense, but struggled to reach the 20 point mark.
Typically, divisional games are thought to be lower scoring than other matchups. But recent stats don't bear this out. Although it's a small sample size, since head coach McDaniel took over the Dolphins, these rivals have played OVERs in four of the last five contests. With both teams (and offenses) healthy, we can probably expect points. There's little or no value on a total of 48.5. But for those inclined to bet over/unders, the OVER might be worth consideration. The heat and humidity in Miami could take a toll, especially on the defenses in the second half.
The WR Tyreek Hill situation didn't have time to play out last weekend since it happened right before kickoff, but it could be far more relevant here. That was a national news story. Any possibility of a distraction for Hill and the rest of the offense, especially on a short week? This concern keeps me off the OVER.
Buffalo has absolutely dominated this series over multiple seasons. Bills have won 9 of the last 10 SU. Only Miami was a fluke when Buffalo outgained the Dolphins nearly 3 to 1 in yardage but gave up several turnovers and lost. Bills are also 10-3 ATS in last 12 games as a road dog.
Buffalo also likes national grass. Bills are 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games on real grass (like in Miami).
QB Allen was banged up last week in the win versus Arizona. He's not afraid to run and make contact, but that also places him more at risk of injury. The left hand injury wouldn't normally raise much concern--but keep in mind this Thursday game is just four days after the injury occurred.
Allen's results last week (2 rushing TDs and 2 passing TDs) were particularly impressive since he has to work with an overhauled WR corps with unfamiliar talent. Perhaps that's one reason why Allen finished with completions to nine different receiving targets, which may be something to keep in mind when considering player props. I advise going UNDER on Bills' receivers (both receptions and yardage) since the ball is likely to be spread around the field again and no WR. TE, or RB will get a big number of touches.
Credit the Dolphins defense for steady improvement last week after starting off poorly. Miami allowed only 139 passing yards and forced 6 punts. That's a promising sign for a unit that's been the Achilles heel of this team.
Counterargument: Each bet I think potentially might be worth an investment also is problematic. OVER would be tempting, but Allen's hand injury raises concerns. Same thing with betting on Buffalo getting points. Kicking props are temping, but at 6.5 points, but to go OVER requires -130 vig. Slight lean to the first quarter total to go OVER 9.5 points priced at -110. Last season, both were top-10 1Q scoring offenses, which means they come out early and are aggressive. But I'll skip the temptation and instead watch this matchup from the sidelines.
PICKS:
No Action.
LAS VEGAS at BALTIMORE (SUN)
Spread: Ravens -8.5
Moneyline: Ravens -420 / Raiders +350
Total: 41.5
This matchup appears to be a major mismatch. Baltimore came within a toenail of upsetting Super Bowl Champion Kansas City on the road ten days ago, and now opens at home versus a much softer opponent. The Raiders must play a second straight road game, and travel coast-to-coast after looking flat and dominated last week at LA Chargers. The question here appears to be -- will the Ravens use this game to make a statement (hence, easily covering the spread)?
ANALYSIS:
I made a futures wager on Baltimore to win the AFC North division. I'll try to not let that bias influence my analysis and wagering on Ravens' games, including this matchup hosting the Raiders. That said, Baltimore looks appealing not only as a side bet, a first-half bet, and perhaps a teaser play (assuming you can get a -120 or less vig price).
I bet on Las Vegas last week in their game against the LA Chargers. I expected the defense to continue its impressive run from last season when (surprising stat coming!) the Raiders were actually be best defense in the NFL in points allowed in their last nine games. However, that defense looked very average last week, allowing 176 rushing yards. They put no pressure on the QB, which will cost them in a game like this, because that's the one major vulnerability on the Ravens--when QB Jackson gets pressured, he makes mistakes.
An even bigger concern for Las Vegas is the offense, which showed growing pains and problems, due in part to last week being journeyman QB Minshew's first game with the team. The Raiders allowed 4 sacks, and only put up 71 rushing yards. That's not a recipe for covering, let alone winning. Commiting three costly turnovers didn't help either. Now, they face another tough defense, certainly a much better unit than the Chargers which gave them problems last week. Baltimore held opponents to only 16 points per game last season, which led the NFL.
There's no shame in the Ravens losing to Kansas City in Arrowhead by one score. In fact, Baltimore is now riding a two-game losing streak dating back to last season, and both defeats were to the champs. Let's also credit Baltimore as Ravens outgained KC 452-353 in last week's loss by a toe. Here's a step down in class versus an opponent they should be able to handle. Add the extra rest and prep time (the Ravens played the previous Thursday) combined with the Raiders being forced to play a second straight road game, and pregame intangibles clearly favor Baltimore.
In last week's report, I touted the Ravens as an excellent first-half team, particularly against the spread. Lamar Jackson is the best 1H QB in the NFL and has the record to prove it. He's also 60-24 SU as an NFL starter. Baltimore is also known for excelling at early season preparation under head coach John Harbaugh, and this game sets up perfectly for a strong 1H showing. Last season, the Ravens went 12-7 ATS in first halves. They barely missed the cover last week, but won't be facing nearly as tough an opponent. I don't like laying big numbers, but -4.5 is within reason for a rest, motivated, historically-good 1H team, especially hosting an offense that struggled in the opener.
The Raiders' rush defense was shaky last year, ranking 20th in yards allowed. Not only do they have to worry about the mobility of QB Jackson, but the Baltimore offense added vet RB Henry in the offseason. The Ravens collected 452 total yards against one of NFL's best defenses last week. They should post impressive numbers this week, as well.
Even though this is a new regime in Las Vegas, the Raiders have not been a good bounce-back team off a loss. They are are just 13-18-1 ATS in games following their last 32 losses. QB Minshew is just 15-23 SU as an NFL starter, as the Raiders are his 4th team.
Counterargument: This game's pointspread outcome may rest upon QB Minshew's shoulders. To his credit, he started several games for the Colts last season, including a stunning 22-19 upset in Baltimore early in the year. So, Minshew knows this field and opponent and enjoyed success in the past. The Raiders have also been underestimated by betting markets -- going 10-6-1 last season, for instance. However, this still appears to be a very bad spot for Las Vegas having to play in Baltimore which is rested and coming off a loss.
PICKS:
First Half Side -- Baltimore -4.5
Team Prop -- Baltimore to Score First and Win the Game (-113)
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE (SUN)
Spread: Jaguars -3
Moneyline: Jaguars -162 / Browns +140
Total: 41.5
Both teams are coming off crushing opening week losses. However, Jacksonville as the home favorite looks like the much better team, especially given all the off-the-field drama happening in Cleveland. Laying -3 with the more rounded and consistent team appears to be a bargain.
ANALYSIS:
Jacksonville should have defeated Miami last week. But they blew a two touchdown lead and lost on a last-second field goal on the road. Now--here's a much more winnable game, at home, versus an opponent that's floundering offensively and going through serious questioning of it's topsy-turvy QB situation. JAX facing the Browns' offense should be a much easier task this week than trying to slow down the far more diverse Dolphins. Add the motivation of playing the home opener off a loss and this looks to be a "bet the favorite" or pass decision.
Cleveland had only 230 yards in LW’s 33-17 home loss to Dallas, even though they were playing catch up most of the game versus a prevent defense. Even worse, the Browns were 2/15 on 3rd down conversions. Those numbers in crunch time are staggeringly bad. Now, they also have a number of injuries, including to the running game, with an offensive line that's average, at best. But the biggest problem in Cleveland might be with the QB who not only is losing the faith of his teammates, but fans are already turning on the ridiculously-paid scandal-plagued starter who may go down as the worst front office financial decision since, well Johnny Manziel. The revelation of another sexual abuse charge against Watson this week is a distraction that neither he, nor his team needs at the moment.
We're advised when handicapping matchups never to overreact to the results of just one week. However, I don't know how else we can react to the Browns other than as fade material. The defense looked outclassed, the offense was dreadful, and even the spirit of the team was crushed -- not something you often see at the home opener for a team with a rabid fan base. Sometimes, good teams will shake off a terrible performance. I just don't see with all the issues going on the Cleveland how they're going to reverse things so quickly, especially versus a good team that is extra motivated to bounce back themselves in their home opener.
When we add all the intangibles, the Browns' serious injuries, the contrasts in team continuity and chemistry, and some line value (I believe this number should be -3.5 or perhaps -4), Jacksonville -3 seems like a reasonable +EV wager.
As for player props, in a low-scoring game, where both teams might struggle in the red zone, I like low-lined kicking props to go OVER. Browns' kicker Hopkins is lined at just 5.5 points. Obviously, we most likely need two FGs to get there, which looks like a good bet. Hopkins made multiple clutch kicks for the Browns last season. He converted on 92 pct of field goal attempts and he was lights out from 50-plus yards, hitting all eight of his kicks. He kicked a 51-yarder this week and will be called up more than average, especially if offense stalls, as predicted.
Counterargument: If the Browns' defense is as good this week as the preseason predictions forecasted, this game could be low-scoring and the Browns could get the win and cover. The Jaguars didn't move the ball well in the second half last week, and will need to play all four quarters. The UNDER could be worth a look, assuming one believes in the Browns' defense and that opening game versus Dallas was just a fluke.
PICKS:
Full Game Side -- Jacksonville -3
Player Prop -- CLE Kicker Hopkins OVER 5.5 points (-125)
INDIANAPOLIS at GREEN BAY (SUN)
Spread: Colts -3
Moneyline: Colts -148 / Packers +130
Total: 40
Both teams come off disappointing losses, but in the opener the Packers lost more than just the game. They'll field a hobbled starting lineup this week including a new QB, which is one reason why this line seems to be out of sync -- Green Bay an underdog at home to Indianapolis?
ANALYSIS:
I see on my advance odds sheet, Green Bay was -5 (opening line). Now, they're getting +3. At home! I'm not sure how many QBs are worth an 8-point swing, but I don't think Jordan Love should be one of them. Another data point: HC LaFleur is 14-3 ATS as a dog of 3+ points and 3-0 ATS at home in those spots. Nonetheless, I'll decline the temptation to play the home dog here. Instead, I think there's some value on the total -- more specifically, the OVER.
Both teams played high-scoring games last week. That's an indication the defenses might not be meritorious of a total lined this low -- just 40. Important: This number at 40 is very playable, at 40.5 less so, and at 41 I might even pass.
Packers put up 414 yards in their 34-29 loss in the Brazil game. The Colts gave up 213 rushing yards alone in their 29-27 home loss. Those are not defenses I would count on right now, even with the change at QB for Green Bay.
Malik Willis gets his first start with the Packers. He got three starts LY in Tennessee. Obviously, this is unproven, and a challenge. But Green Bay at home and playing versus a defense with vulnerabilities strikes me as a good opportunity. For the Colts, Richardson goes under center again. He was only 9/19 last week, but also connected on two passing TDs, and ran for another. The Colts can certainly score points, but then they give up points, too. If we get any decent numbers from Malik and the Packers offense, this score should break into the 40s.
Speaking of my advance odds sheet on this game, the early number was 47. Now at 40, it's dropped by a full touchdown. Again, I don't think Love was worth this much weight. The game plan will certainly change for the Packers and it's uncertain if
As for player props, I saw IND TB Taylor listed at +120 to score a TD. I normally won't play TD props, and if anything then they are bet, it should usually by the NO TD side. But Taylor is an exception having scored a touchdown in 11 of the last 13 games in which he played any significant time. He gets most of the touches inside the 5, and with Richardson a duel threat, Taylor will have multiple chances, especially versus a Pack D that gave up 200+ last week on the ground, plus two rushing TDs. Only trouble is--I waited until late and prop was bet down to even money. It's a play at +120 and maybe +110 but any player at EVEN is just about gone so far as value goes.
I'll go with one player prop, which is the Green Bay kicker OVER 5.5 points, laying-130. Narveson is a rookie, but is highly touted for his leg. He made 3/4 FGs and two XPs in his NFL debut last week, good for 11 points. I think the prop odds moved a little low here, based on the QB change. If anything that might help more FG attempts and drive this to 6+ which is all we need. It's doubtful GB will go for 4th downs (unless late) and will take the points when and where they can get them.
Counterargument: Who knows how Willis will perform with the Packers? And what if this turns into a rushing fest? Usually, breaking into the 40s also requires some contribution from both offenses. Either of these teams could come up short and the UNDER gets there, despite being all the way down to 40. However, the defensive problems we saw last week won't go away, especially for Green Bay as they face a Colts team that could put up points.
PICKS:
Full Game Total: OVER 40
Player Prop: BG Kicker Narveson OVER 5.5 points (-130)
NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS (SUN)
Spread: Cowboys -6
Moneyline: Cowboys -278 / Saints +240
Total: 46.5
This should be an exciting game with two teams coming off impressive victories last week. However, betting markets clearly were more impressed with the Cowboys, making them a 6-point favorite in their home opener. Both defenses are also coming off strong showings, but this game has the makings of a possible shootout in Dallas.
ANALYSIS:
I was surprised to see Dallas laying this many points, especially versus a winning team that some bettors may be underestimating. It's no surprise then, that I'm picking the Saints on a couple of wagers. The market clearly was impacted by Dallas' thorough domination of Cleveland last week (I had Dallas as an underdog). Now, the number has swung 8.5 to 9 points as Dallas is a sizable favorite. This overconfidence in Dallas is confusing. Sure, Dallas looked outstanding on the scoreboard (less so, when you examine the stats closer)--but how much weight do we give to shutting down DeShaun Watson and a banged-up Browns’ offense? And, don't the Saints get any credit for a 37-point win in their opener?
Okay, so New Orleans pounded the worst team in the NFL. So, perhaps that's not indicative of the strength of the team, which is still uncertain and has question marks. However, just as I bet on the Saints last week (the rest of the world was inexplicably on Carolina, go figure), I think there's enough evidence to back them again, especially getting a generous number of points. Keep in mind New Orleans has been playing exceptionally well dating back to last season with essentially this same lineup. They've now won 5 of their last 6, with the one loss a close road defeat at LA Rams. In this six-game stretch (going back to Dec. 1, 2023), New Orleans has averaged 33 PPG, one of the highest point totals in the NFL during that span. QB Carr has publicly stated he's far more confident in the Saints' offense going into this season--and it showed last week. While I'm not touting the Saints as an elite team, and they might not even be as good as the Cowboys, I don't think they're nearly a touchdown worse. So, I'm taking the points.
The New Orleans defense was just as impressive, holding the Panthers to a putrid 193 total yards. Yes, that was against Carolina. But it was on par with what Dallas put up last week vs. Cleveland. New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS as a road underdog over the past six seasons.
There were also some deceiving numbers from last week. Yeah, Dallas won big. But the team didn't move the ball with any consistency. There are still questions with the Dallas offensive line, which allowed 3 sacks last week and allowed lots of pressure on QB Prescott. The starting TE is also out with injury and Dallas has always been a TE-heavy offense, especially when Precott gets pressured. This unit scored just two TDs and settled for multiple long FGs, picking up just 15 first downs (the same as Cleveland). I'm not sure why the betting market thinks the Dallas offense is nearly a TD superior to the Saints. It’s not.
Counterargument: Last three years, Cowboys are 16-7 ATS as a home favorite. Dallas also plays well after wins, going 20-14 ATS coming off a win under HC McCarthy. Still, I want to go where there’s value, and it’s clearly on one side in this game–with New Orleans. The Saints deserve a bet with the hook on the 3 for the 1H and also the full game, assuming we can get +6.
PICKS:
Full Game Side -- New Orleans +6
First Half Side -- New Orleans +3.5 (-115)
ADDING: PLAYER PROP NOR KICKER GRUPE OVER 6.5 POINTS (-133)
Comments--We cashed last week's OVER on Grupe in the first half, as Saints were up 30-0 at halftime. it won't be that easy this week, but NOR still has a long-range kicker and if DAL defense is sticky in the red zone, that plays into more FGs for New Orleans. Dome conditions on rubber grass are ideal for kickers, and with an offense that moves the ball pretty well (Saints 32 PPG scored average, last 6 games), this plays into Grupe getting some chances to put the ball through the uprights.
ADDED BETS THIS WEEK:
TAMPA-DET GAME: Player Prop -- DET WR Williams OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-116)
Comments: Let's be clear about this. Williams is the #2 WR on the Lions, which struggled somewhat last week in the passing game. The former Alabama star WR posted a huge game vs. Rams, with 121 receiving yards, more than half the pick up after the catch (this is a key factor in betting WR receiving yardage--can he player make extra yards). But he's listed as "questionable" this week, with an ankle sprain. Important to note he's not "doubtful," but questionable. Big difference. Detroit is thin at WR right now, and he's going into the game and will get his targets. This is because Tampa Bay is decimated this week in the defensive secondary. Tampa Bay's CBs took a beating as starters Zyon McCollum, Josh Hayes, and Antoine Winfield Jr. each sustained injuries impacting their availability this week. Hayes and Winfield are listed as OUT, while McCollum’s status won't be 100 percent. This is the worst possible spot to be in for a defense, playing in DET on the road, especially after they didn't play well in the previous game. I'm not sure how many catches Williams will get, but look for the Bucs' coverage to concentrate on star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown on the opposite side, who was held in check last week. Playing versus banged up pass-D should give the secondary receiver Williams a shot at breakaway yardage after the catch, and few QBs are better than Jared Goff at picking apart inexperienced defenses.
LAR-ARZ GAME: Player Prop -- LAR RB Williams OVER 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Comments: Williams was on the field for 91 percent of offensive snaps, last week. Since one Rams WR is out with injury, look for even more rushing attempts, especially versus a bad run D. Last season, Williams played both games versus Arizona. He ran for 130 in first game, then 145 in the second game. This number is probably lined about right for the standard good RB against a bad defense getting 15-20 carries. However, given some added factors and especially his success against Arizona, Williams should get enough carries to go OVER (he had 18 carries last week, and would have had more were it not for Rams playing catch-up in 4th quarter which meant throwing every down). Thanks, Billy Georgitsakis.
<<<<< THIS IS THE FINAL REPORT FOR THIS WEEK >>>>>
HANDICAPPING CONTESTS – THIS WEEK’S PICKS:
CIRCA MILLION PICKS- Week 2
(overall record: 16-9)
Ticket 1: (3-2)
BAL -8
NOR +6.5
NWE +3.5
WSH -1.5
KC -5.5
Ticket 2: (3-2)
DET -7
TEN +4
WSH -1.5
KC - 5.5
DEN +2.5
Ticket 3: (3-2)
BALT -8
NOR +6.5
NWE +3.5
DEN +2.5
ATL +6.5
Ticket 4: (4-1)
BALT -8
DET -7
TEN +4
KC -5.5
ATL +6.5
Ticket 5: (3-2)
NOR +6.5
JAX -3
TEN +4
WSH -1.5
DEN +2.5
WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS - WEEK 2
(overall record: 13-12)
Ticket 1 (2-3)
MIN +6
TEN +3.5
DEN +2.5
HOU -6
ATL -6.5
Ticket 2 (3-2)
MIN +6
HOU -6
TEN +3.5
WSH -1.5
KC -5.5
Ticket 3 (2-3)
GB +3
MIN +6
DEN +2.5
HOU -6
ATL -6.5
Ticket 4 (3-2)
DET -7
TEN +3.5
HOU -6
WSH -1.5
ATL +6.5
Ticket 5 (3-2)
DET -7
GB +3
MIN +6
NWE +3.5
HOU -6
GOLDEN NUGGET PICKS/RESULTS- Week 2
(overall record: 25-17)
TICKET 1 (now 9-5)
KAN -7.....L
TCU +2.....W
WK FOR +23.....L
KTCKY +24.....W
E CAR +2.5.....W
HOU -4.....W
SO MISS +11.5.....L
TICKET 2 (now 8-6)
KAN -7.....L
TCU +2.....W
VA +3.....L
TULSA +19.....L
KTCKY +24....W
FL INTL +5.5.....L
TOL +11.5.....W
TICKET 3 (now 8-6)
KAN -7.....L
TCU +2....W
VA +3.....L
WK FOR +23.....L
BST COL +16.5.....W
TULANE +13.5.....L
UT ST +20.....W
CIRCA SURVIVOR- WEEK 2 PICKS
TICKET 1 -- BALTIMORE
TICKET 2 -- BALTIMORE
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