A Daily Update of Opinions and Picks Prior to Super Bowl LIX
2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 154
LOSSES — 134
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — +$85
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-0 (+$700) + 2 futures wagers graded
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,085
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 21):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 21 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-115)...{W}
Player Prop: PHI PK Jake Elliot OVER 6.5 points (-130)...{W}
Player Prop: PHI RB Barkley OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135)..{W}
First-Quarter Side: Philadelphia -1.5...{W}
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -2...{W}
Moneyline: Kansas City -125...{W}
Player Prop: KC RB Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards...{W}
Grading Futures Bets (Completed):
Baltimore to win AFC North (+205)...{W} Click here for report in Week 2
Philadelphia to win NFC (+210)...{W} Click here for report in Week 16
A FEW EARLY THOUGHTS
It's nice to be up for the season.
That's right, after 294 posted wagers, I'm up the princely sum of.....
$85.
Eighty-five bucks -- that comes out to about 3 cents an hour. Hooray!
Nice to be in the top 5 percent of sports bettors who earn a profit, huh?
Even with my $85 "win," I can't really call this a successful betting season. Still, I do feel a sense of relief about the near-conclusion of it all.
Aside from what's posted here on this page with analysis and picks each week (which is displayed in the W-L and +/- money record atop this report), I also manage a modest-sized NFL betting investment fund. After making about $185,000 in profit last season, my contest entries totally blanked this year, which cost me (actually the investment fund) -- $19,500 to the minus. Nonetheless, with a couple of nice scores on futures tickets, the investment fund actually ended up at about $44,000. So, investors earned 10 percent back in profit overall -- $4,000. I consider this a remarkable achievement given the big hole I dug for myself by doing so badly in the Las Vegas-based handicapping contests (Westgate, Circa, Golden Nugget).
So, was this a good season? No, not really. But, I'll take it.
Now, as to what's ahead....
I'll post several opinions on Super Bowl wagers in the week to come. Each day, I expect to add something new. I won't' be betting much on this game so far as my own money. Why not? Reason is, I never felt "in the zone" at any point this season. I also see this as a tougher matchup than usual to predict. Nonetheless, there should be several props and perhaps other wagers which could give us an edge. I'll be sharing these thoughts with you, which you can take or leave, as you wish.
There's a lot of great information out there, though much of it is confusing and even contradictory. There's also lots of garbage. So, be careful about what your read and follow. Anyone who promises to deliver the Super Bowl winner is full of it. Truth is, no one knows what will happen or who will win or which side will cover. All we can do is try our best to identify numbers that might be a little "off." By "off," I mean odds prices that are skewed by the wrong factors, or are given too much/too little weight. With thousands of possible bets, it takes some time to go through the full betting menu.
Thanks for visiting this page, and sticking it out for 22 weeks (and counting). This gets close to wrapping up 13 straight years of making picks. I hope to continue and provide good information, and some winners.
Super Bowl MVP
This can be an excellent value wager for bettors leaning towards one side or the other. Rather than betting on a team and the point spread and/or the moneyline price, the payout is higher if we successfully select the key player from the winning team.
First, let's note the Super Bowl MVP is (almost) always from the victorious team. Only once in 58 games was the MVP from the losing team (Dallas' LB Howley, in 1971). So, make sure your MVP bet is connected to the team you think will win.
Second, concentrate on QBs. In 58 Super Bowls, a quarterback has won the MVP award 33 times -- including 13 of the last 17. Given the talent and reputations of both starting QBs, they deserve to be the favorites (but surprisingly, one is not--which I'll get to in a moment).
Patrick Mahomes priced at +105 looks about right. If you like the Chiefs to win at -125, the smarter wager might be to bet on Mahomes to win the MVP instead. Getting nearly a third more in value in return makes this very attractive. Keep in mind he's already won the Super Bowl MVP three times (each of the more recent Kansas City victories). Unless Mahomes gets injured or plays an uncharacteristically bad game, he's going to get his fourth trophy if the Chiefs win.My money this year is going on Jalen Hurts. He's currently priced at +360. That number started as high as +380 but was quickly bet down, and is as low as +350 on some sports sites. The reason why Hurts isn't the second favorite (to Mahomes) is due to heavy interest in RB Saquon Barkley. The Eagles' RB is currently priced at +250.
I don't want to take away from Barkley's exceptional season and recent production, which is off the charts. However, Barkley will have to run for at least 100+ yards and probably needs to score a few touchdowns to get the trophy. He could face a tougher challenge this week, playing a Kansas City defense with some impressive numbers in their favor. Consider the Chiefs have played 18 straight playoff games without allowing a 100-yard rusher by an opponent -- and never since DC Steve Spagnuolo took over. The last game in which KC allowed a 100-yard rusher came way back in 2024 Week 1 vs. Lamar Jackson. Perhaps Barkely will break the streak and have a big game. However, I don't think the price is accurate and don't believe he should be this sizable a favorite among the Eagles' players.
QB Hurts is priced with considerably higher value (+360 vs. +250) for those who believe Philadelphia will win the game. Aside from perhaps A.J. Brown or the Eagles' defensive line, it's hard to see anyone else other than Barkley or Hurts winning the trophy with an Eagles' victory.
The best argument in support of Hurts is probably his running ability, including a high propensity of scoring touchdowns. MVP voters like scoring (more than yardage) and Hurts has delivered all season long. Hurts has scored 18 rushing touchdowns, including 3 in the NFC Championship game (plus, he missed basically three games due to injury). The “Brotherly Shove” has become nearly impossible to stop. If Hurts shoves his way into the end zone a few times and gets 200+ yards passing and the Eagles win it,Barkley would need a massive performance to surpass the traditional bias of this award for QBs. Hurts' chances are also increased by having two more weeks to recover from an early December knee injury--which means he should be at 100 percent and with KC's defense focusing heavily on Barkley, Hurts may find some opening for both passing and running.
I like the Eagles to win. And betting is all about good numbers. Since Mahomes is such an overwhelming favorite--perhaps deservedly so--that creates added value elsewhere, and Barkley's popularity with the betting public adds to Hurts' value even more. Accordingly, I'll take the value on the Eagles QB and expect MVP voters to award him with the trophy.
Pick:
PHI QB Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP
Hurts to Score a Touchdown (Anytime) / Hurts to Rush for OVER 37.5 yards
Pursuant to the previous wager, I'll also make a few wagers on PHI QB Jalen Hurts to perform well on the ground.
I'll take Hurts to score at least one touchdown. Many bettors chase longer odds such as "first touchdown scored" or higher prices on multiple TDs. I think the lay price of -120 is reasonable for a QB who is clearly better than even money to get into the end zone at least once during the full game.
Hurts scored in 12 of the 18 games he started this season. That includes 2 of 3 playoff games. He's also coming off a 3 TD performance in his previous game. The week before that, he had a 44-yard TD run, as well. He's rushed for 18 TDs this season--including playoff games. When the Eagles get down to the goalline, they don't mess around with lots of trickery. Hurts takes the ball and shoves. And we've seen no team able to stop this, so far.
Earlier, I alluded to Hurts being healthy again. That could open up the chances for a longer TD run. This also plays into Hurts exceeding his rushing yardage projection.
Hurts is listed at O/U 37.5 rushing yards (-115). He surpassed that figure in only about half of his games--but note so many Eagles' wins during their 9-game win streak didn't require Hurts to run and risk injury, and his stats were also slightly deflated by intentional kneel downs (which can be dangerous when betting OVER on QB rushing props). However, KC is known as a blitzing defense and that could create more broken plays and rushing attempts. The Chiefs have also been torched for decent yardage by multiple opposing QBs lately. Stats show KC allowing the following rushing totals to opposing QBs over the past month: 39-42-54-55 in the last four games which are all easily above this O/U total at 37.5 and Hurts is as good as any this defense has faced. KC's defense has also surrendered an ugly 4.9 YPC average to QBs this season, which is an exceptionally high number that would be a solid figure for a good running back.
Not that a game two years ago should matter, but in the 2023 Super Bowl between KC and PHI, Hurts had 15 rushing attempts for 70 yards and 3 touchdowns. I think we can presume a similar script for this game.
Picks:
Player Prop -- PHI QB Hurts to score a touchdown-anytime (-120)
Player Prop -- PHI QB Hurts OVER 37.5 rushing yards (-115)
Team with Longest Drive (Time)
Here's an interesting prop I haven't seen nor bet before, which is wagering on the team that’s likely to have the longest drive of the game, measured in clock time. With this type of wager, we're looking to identify the team most likely to produce a methodical, multi-play, time-consuming drive. Big plays and punts = bad. Running plays and lots of first downs = good.
Kansas City has certainly veered away from big plays and relies more heavily on extended drives. This is due to losing deep passing threats in recent years. The Chiefs would normally be an excellent team to back on a wager like this, except that Philadelphia's comparative data looks even better.
The key component of consuming clock time is rushing the ball successfully. No NFL team ran for a higher percentage this season than Philadelphia, which rushed 56 percent of all offensive plays. Kansas City ranked near the bottom, rushing only about 42 percent of all plays. This means a huge edge to the Eagles, assuming they can run the ball effectively -- and I expect they can with Barkley and Hurts. Moreover, the Eagles averaged a whopping 36 rushing attempts per game, compared with just 27 for the Chiefs. So, we can expect the Eagles to run the ball far more often, which gives them some advantage when it comes to draining clock time. One more stat: Philadelphia led the NFL in time-of-possession this season.
We also gain some upside with the Eagles and their likelihood to not only attempt 4th downs, but also convert (73 pct. of the time) -- which could play into extending drive time. Kansas City also tends to go for 4th down conversions more often than usual, but the Eagles are the best in the league at keeping drives alive.
Seeing this prop listed at -114 on both sides, I think there's enough evidence to place a wager on Philadelphia.
Pick:
Team Prop -- Philadelphia to have longest drive (game clock time) (-114)
More to come....please check back later.
Final Super Bowl LIX Picks:
Coming soon
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