Writer’s Note: There’s often lots of information contained in these reports. They’re updated frequently, all the way up until gametime(s.) Every week, results from the previous report are posted, along with an updated season record. I also regularly track the outcomes of my picks in multiple NFL handicapping contests. Every pick is tracked on this page. However, for those interested only in the analysis and picks each week, you may skip past the initial sections and read from the point forward where games are analyzed. Again, an important reminder–this page is updated multiple times starting on Wednesdays with added games analysis and picks through Sunday morning. Thank you for reading and following.
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 23
LOSSES — 18
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — minus $83
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-5 (+$42)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 2):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 2 REPORT HERE
6 wins – 5 loses – 0 push (net plus +$42)
First Half Side -- Baltimore -4.5.....LOST
Team Prop -- Baltimore to Score First and Win the Game (-113).....LOST
Full Game Side -- Jacksonville -3.....LOST
Player Prop -- CLE Kicker Hopkins OVER 5.5 points (-125).....WON
Full Game Total: OVER 40.....LOST
Player Prop: BG Kicker Narveson OVER 5.5 points (-130).....WON
Full Game Side -- New Orleans +6.....WON
First Half Side -- New Orleans +3.5 (-115).....WON
Player Prop -- NOR KICKER GRUPE OVER 6.5 POINTS (-133).....WON
Player Prop -- DET WR Williams OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-116).....WON
Player Prop -- LAR RB Williams OVER 73.5 rushing yards (-115).....LOST
NFL WEEK 3 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (THU)
Spread: Jets -6
Moneylines: Patriots +225 / Jets -260
Total: 38.5
This week, fans and bettors will be treated to another intriguing matchup in the NFL's Thursday night game. The NY Jets play their home opener hosting New England, which has been much better than expected in its first two games. The Patriots have dominated this series, including a 15-game win streak (2018-2023). These AFC East rivals split last season's series, 1-1.
Typically, a matchup with rivals calls for a bet on the dog. It's even more compelling in this case since New England has dominated the NY Jets over the years. In fact, the Jets have won just one time in their last 17 tries. The Patriots have also played more consistently in their two games this season, going 1-1 straight up, and covering both times (2-0 ATS). New England could easily be 2-0 SU right now, except for their OT loss last week. Meanwhile, the Jets could be 0-2, except for Tennessee gifting them last week's game with mistakes. It's also been a good stretch for underdogs in the NFL overall. These are just a few of the reasons why I won't lay the points with the Jets.
Stats don't lie: So far, the Patriots have run the ball for 170-185 yards in splitting their first two games. Meanwhile, their two opponents ran the ball for just 70-46 yards. That's a staggering disparity of yardage. If New England can replicate anywhere close to these numbers again, they'll obviously have a great shot at pulling an upset.
Another concern here is Jets QB Rodgers, who in two tries still hasn't played a game that demonstrates he's the missing piece for the Jets. The 40-year old looked bad against San Francisco and then played just well enough to win last week. Throwing for 175 yards per game isn't Rodgers-like. Could this be the breakout game for Rodgers and the Jets offense?
Answering the question above, I predict the answer will be -- yes. This has the makings of a statement game for the Jets. Head coach Saleh's team hasn't played up to expectations on either side of the ball. The Jets offense has sputtered. But it's the defense that's the bigger concern. The defense was supposed to be the team's strength, yet it ranks 25th in yardage allowed. Surrendering 24.5 points per game won't cover most pointspreads, when laying nearly a TD. Still, this looks to be the ideal opponent to reverse those numbers and get back to expectations.
We can probably toss out much of the old data, for two reasons. Remember, all those numbers were under Bill Belichick, now retired. Moreover, the Jets haven't fielded a quality quarterback in many seasons. In short, these aren't the same teams from a few years ago, or even last season.
The Patriots problems are almost entirely confined to an offense that is decimated by injuries. The offensive line will likely miss two starters, and all five were listed as "questionable." That's not always a sign they won't play, but does indicate the Pats OL should be a weakness this week and most certainly will not be at full strength. The Jets defense also picked up 7 sacks in two games, so look for the Patriots offense led by QB Brissett to struggle, especially versus a NYJ defense looking forward to getting back on track. The home opener should help with what could be a dominant performance. The Patriots don't pose much threat outside, as the WRs caught just three passes last week. While the Pats did run the ball very effectively, that likely will not be the case versus the Jets this week who will stuff the line and force Brissett to throw more than New England wants.
A low-scoring game normally triggers interest in the dog plus the points, especially a spread this high. Many stats point to a Pats cover, but I'm riding on the intangibles in this game. A short week with the better defensive team quarterbacked by a future Hall of Famer eager to make a big splash in NY following his disastrous debut a season ago on this same field whispers taking the favorite. But I'm not laying this many points. Instead, I'll count on the NY Jets to figure out a way to win the game, concentrating mainly on shutting down the run, forcing New England to throw, and getting some turnovers.
It's a small edge, but give the Jets the advantage in the kicking game. NYJ have reliable veteran Jeff Zuerlein, while the Patriots replaced the NFL's worst kicker last season (just 65 pct of FGs made) with Joey Slye, who is kicking in just his third game. Slye's longest career FG in the NFL is 37 yards. So, it's doubtful the Patriots get many bonus points from long kicks.
A player prop to consider is counter to betting on the Jets but it still might be worth a wager. Patriots RB Gibson is the #2 back, and is lined at just 22.5 rushing yards this week. He had 11 carries for 96 rushing yards last week. We can expect another decent workload, even though he won't get the 20 carries of lead back Stevenson. Since the Patriots moved the ball so well on the ground in the first two games, we can expect more of the same, especially in the first half. They also could be enticed by recent history showing the Jets allowing 130 yards on the ground to lowly Tennessee. This all points to Gibson getting enough carries to reach 23+, even if he's mostly shut down for the night by the Jets.
Counterargument: We always risk an upset with division rivals and the NFL has been a graveyard for home favorites, in recent seasons. On paper, the Patriots deserve to be the play. However, too many intangibles plus the short week, and perhaps a little more desperation to show the rest of the league the Jets should be taken seriously as a contender likely points to a strong all around effort. The Patriots injuries also add weight to a play on the favorite, but only on the moneyline and as part of a teaser wager.
Picks:
Moneyline -- NY Jets (-260)
Two-Team Six-Point Teaser -- NY Jets (pick) / Las Vegas (pick) (-125)
Player Prop -- NWE RB Gibson OVER 22.5 yards (-110)
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ADDED BETS THIS WEEK:
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HANDICAPPING CONTESTS – THIS WEEK’S PICKS:
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