2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 34
LOSSES — 24
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $335
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-6 (+$418)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 3):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 3 REPORT HERE
NWE vs. NYJ -- Moneyline NY Jets (-260) .... won
Two-Team Six-Point Teaser -- NY Jets (pick) / Las Vegas (pick) (-125) .... lost
Player Prop -- NWE RB Gibson OVER 22.5 yards (-110) .... won
GB vs. TEN Total Successful Field Goals (Both Teams) OVER 3.5 (+115) .... lost
Full Game Side: Minnesota +2.5 .... won
First Half Side: Minnesota +1.5 (-125) .... won
Full Game Side: Indianapolis -1.5 .... won
Full Game Side: NY Giants +6.5 .... won
Full Game Side: Baltimore -1.5 .... won
Full Game Side: LA Rams +7 (-120) .... won
Full Game Side: Tennessee -2.5 (-120) .... lost
First-Half Side: NY Giants +3.5 (-105) .... won
First-Half Side: LA Rams +3.5 (even) .... lost
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-137) .... lost
Player Prop; ATL PK Koo OVER 6.5 points (-110) ..... lost
Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -2.5 .... won
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 190.5 passing yards .... won
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys -5.5
Moneylines: Cowboys / Giants
Total: 45.5
The preseason "look ahead" line on this game was Dallas -5. then, last Sunday night the line was Dallas -4.5. Now, it's Dallas -5.5. These are puzzling numbers which reveal an inexplicable trend. Inexplicable meaning--how is Dallas favored by this many points? For the second consecutive week, Dallas was demolished in the first half and ended up with a loss. Meanwhile, New York played pretty well for the second straight week, coming off a road victory. For both teams, wins at Cleveland have been their only bright spot among their duplicate 1-2 SU and ATS records.
Given where both teams currently stand, the line seems too high. I'd make this Cowboys -3, at the highest. Perhaps Dallas' historical domination of this series in the last several years has contributed to an public overreaction, but the Cowboys (at least so far) don't look like those explosive 12-win teams from each of the past three seasons. And while the NY Giants won't inspire much confidence given their poor record versus the Cowboys and dismal performances in primetime home games, it does seem they're not getting nearly enough respect and/or the Cowboys are getting way too much respect.
Teams favored by this many points on the road are generally proven winners and solid teams. But Dallas hasn't been that kind of team. Traditionally, Cowboys drafts and much of their (regular season) success has been built around dependable offensive lines. This unit looks average at best, and has played poorly through three games. Consider the number of sacks surrendered (9 in three games) combined with the Cowboys' horrible 30th ranking in rushing yards per game, just 74 YPG. And those numbers are just because Dallas was playing from behind each of the past wo losses, as the Cowboys also rank 29th in yards per rushing attempt. This unit isn't getting the job done, and team with holes in the line aren't good road favorites, especially not in division rivalries.
There's not much to inspire optimism with the Giants offense, which ranks average/to the lower half of the NFL in every key statistical category. But given Dallas' own problems on defense, that mediocrity might still be good enough to cover and/or get the straight up win. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing YPG. The pass defense is somewhat better, ranking 14th -- but the Giants rank higher in both statistical categories. Also, that Giants' loss in Week 1 to Minnesota wasn't as much an embarrassment now that the Vikings are 3-0 and look like one of the best teams in the NFC and then that narrow loss to Washington in Week 2 doesn't look so bad now that we've seen the Commanders (2-1 SU) might be better than were forecasted. Let's credit QB Jones for hanging tough -- he completed 24/34 for 236 yards, two TDs and no turnovers in last week's gritty 21-15 win at Cleveland, supposedly with a great defense. Now, the Dallas game looks eminently winnable considering the mess the Cowboys are in, having yielded 72 pts in their last two games and looking very bad in both contests,
If we add the short prep week (this is a Thursday night game), possible rain showers in the forecast, and the Cowboys obvious problems on defense and with the offensive line, this isn't a team that deserves laying points, certainly not more than a FG. NYG are a risky play, of course, but the number reflects what could be some outdated perceptions about the Cowboys and betting markets' slow reaction of what might be imminent -- which is a subpar year for the Cowboys.
This has all the makings of a close game, so give me the points when and where I can grab them. Note: I'm looking for +3.5 in the 1H, but currently don't see anything above +3 at +120. This could change nearling gametime.
Picks:
Full Game Side: NY Giants +5.5
Denver at NY Jets
Line: NY Jets -7.5
Moneylines: Jets -375 / Broncos +300
Total: 39.5
This line at more than a TD doesn't reflect some key factors that could determine both the game (and pointspread) victor. Denver's defense is equal to the Jets at least statistically speaking, currently ranking 6th in the NFL in points allowed (the Jets rank 8th). Offensively, both teams also rank about the same. So then, why is NYJ laying more than a touchdown? I've been searching for answers and can't find them. Let's keep looking....
To be impartial, this is Denver's second straight road game. That's always a concern, especially with a young unproven team. The Jets also come into this Sunday with extra rest, having last played 10 days ago at home in a cakewalk versus the depleted Patriots. Indeed, both teams enjoyed relatively easy victories last week--another equalizer.
What puts me on the Broncos here plus the points are two primary things: (1) the defense is better than perceived by the market--Denver held its last two opponents to just 251/223 yards, and those two teams PIT and TB are a combined 5-1 SU, and….(2) the steady improvement we've seen from QB Nix. He's looked sharper each time under center, and has come out of the current crop of rookie starters looking perhaps the most promising. Nix's mobility will also help make plays, unlike the previous two QBs the Jets have faced in their wins.
The Jets are supposed to be boosted by a strong defense, but this unit ranks 27th in rushing YPP (4.8 yards per carry to opposing rushers). If Denver can run and take some pressure off Nix, they'll stay in this game.
Yes, QB Rodgers is worrisome for any opponent. But let’s also acknowledge he’s not yet looked the same as when with the Packers nearly two years ago. Perhaps the layoff and being 40 won’t be a problem but until I see proof he’s at the previous level, I’ll fade lines based on outdated perceptions that may no longer be true. Again, this is guesswork. To win in the NFL, we are always betting at the margins and trying to outfox the betting public and what they think.
Interesting tidbit: Jets’ OC Hackett was a massive bust in Denver as their head coach in 2022. He went just 4-11 and was run out of town. Now with the Jets, both teams are mostly revamped. I seriously wonder if Rodgers really listens much to Hackett, or is he just a cardboard prop holding a clipboard?
Three bets I'm making on this game are all tied to Denver's offense playing above expectation and defying low market confidence. First, the Jets have been a slow-starting team in all three games -- they’ve failed to score any points on the opening drive of any game, running just 16 plays for 38 total yards. For wagering purposes, these slow starts put pressure on a team laying -2.5 in the 1Q. I'm also going with the Broncos to exceed a very low team scoring total -- just 15.5 points for the full game. If bettors are impressed with NYJ shutting down New England and Tennessee, I'll fade that and take the other side. Moreover, I'm taking the Broncos +7.5 for the full game. I expect they’ll keep this one close and within a score. Obviously, Denver is a big game this week. I'm counting on head coach Payton to start putting things together with Nix as the franchise QB. Coming off the road win at Tampa Bay last week, that's reason for more confidence---certainly more confidence than these odds indicate.
Picks:
Team Total Points (Full Game): DEN OVER 15.5
First Quarter: DEN +2.5 (-105)
Full Game Side: DEN +7.5
New Orleans at Atlanta
Line: Falcons -3 (+105)
Moneylines: Saints +130 / Falcons -150
Total: 41
Presumably, Atlanta is favored in this game because of the disparity of strength of schedule. The Falcons' three opponents, so far, are a combined 8-1 SU. Contrast that with the Saints, who have enjoyed a somewhat easier schedule, facing teams that are a combined 5-5. Let's also credit Atlanta for taking Kansas City down to the wire last week in a game they probably should have won. At the same time, let's also acknowledge the Falcons could easily be 0-3 at the moment were it not for some Eagles' coaching blunders late in that MNF game a few weeks ago.
The thing is, the Saints have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of the last 9 meetings against the Falcons -- including a 4-1 SU record in Atlanta. The Falcons are 0-2 both SU and ATS and struggling at home this season. I'm not sure they should be laying a FG, especially not to the Saints.
Watching Atlanta's offense last week was a case of a glass half-empty or half-full depending on how we want to look at it. The offensive line had problems all night and continues to be an issue, especially given QB Cousins lack of mobility. The Falcons remain a bad third-down conversion team (ranking 29th), averaging two turnovers per game at home, and ranked 26th in points scored. Meanwhile, New Orleans comes in with the second-most takeaways in the NFL and as of yet still hasn't surrendered 20 points to any opponent. Indeed, this defense is clearly underrated and will likely be another tough test for the Falcons who can't seem to get a break on their tough schedule.
In last week's game, NOR was shut down. Offense produced just 220 yards. I can't see that happening again, though the questionable status of RB Kamara is a major concern. I’m also concerned by Saints’ C being out for next two months–injured last week. I was also mortified by a few of QB Carr's throws, including a senseless first-down interception in last week's loss in the final minute needing just a FG to win, which was a mistake that was totally unnecessary. Initially, I didn't want to bet the Saints here based on some of these concerns. Nevertheless, the case is just too compelling that +3 has tremendous value in a close rivalry game, history favoring the dog, and fading a team that still has several question marks.
Picks:
First-Half Side: NOR 1H +1.5 (-115)
Full game Side: NOR +3 (-115)
Washington at Arizona
Line: Cardinals -3.5 (-105)
Moneylines: Cardinals -155 / Commanders +135
O/U: 49
Entering NFL Week 4, Arizona remains a mystery. Which Cardinals team will show up this Sunday? Will we see the version of the Cardinals that demolished their division rival LA Rams 41-10 a few weeks ago and looked like a serious playoff contender? Or instead, will we see a retread of the same old Cardinals from last season that won only four games and couldn't make the big plays when needed, resulting in a 20-13 home loss to the Lions? This week's betting pointspread reflects optimism that Arizona, now 1-2, will rebound from the loss and defeat the visiting Washington Commanders, who are 2-1. A high-scoring game is predicted as the over/under stands at 50, which is the highest total on the board this coming weekend. Higher-scoring games do tend to nullify value on underdogs. one reason why a dog at +3.5 on a game lined at 49 may be roughly equal to the value of a dog at +3 on a low total, say at 36.
A victory puts the Cardinals smack back in the thick of the NFC West race and would demonstrate the rebuilding program under head coach Jonathan Gannon appears to be working. However, another loss -- especially to Washington was not forecasted to be a contender this season -- might spark another Cardinals' downward tailspin. So, this is a huge game on Sunday.
The peculiar line -- that fact a team with a losing record is favored versus a winning team -- could reflect the public's serious concern that Washington is coming in on a short week (plus a long travel situation) following a stunning upset Monday night win at Cincinnati. Note that the Commanders are 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games coming off a win. But Arizona is 15-11 ATS in the last 26 games coming off a loss, so that's a neutralizer on trends. Perhaps the biggest wild card of this week's matchup could be the assistant coach on the opposing sideline. Washington's new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury served as the Cardinals’ head coach from 2019-22. This will be his first game back in Phoenix since parting ways two seasons ago.
I'm worried that Washington couldn't stop Cincy on Monday night, as they didn't force a punt or get a turnover. Yet, Washington was potent on the offensive side of the ball themselves, putting up similar accolades. The Commanders face a soft defense, so QB Daniels should continue to develop. Many analysts call Daniels' performance the best of any young QB we've seen, so far. Last week, he threw just two incompletions for the entire game. Washington converted 12 of 23 third down plays, which is as good as it gets in percentages.
As for trends, the Commanders are 7-3 ATS last ten games as a road underdog. Commanders are 17-10 ATS in the last four seasons coming off a win. This data could be somewhat outdated, but there are enough players on the Washington roster to place some value in those trends.
I like Washington at +3, and now at +3.5, this looks like a mandatory play. I'll pass on the temptation to bet the dog in the 1H as Arizona has been an excellent first-half team, and especially good in the first quarter. Let's just count on the underdog to keep this close in a game tht could be decided by a FG. I also have the Washington kicker to exceed 6.5 points for this game.
Picks:
Full Game Side: WAS +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop: WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110)
MONEYLINE WAGER: BROWNS
I missed the early gift on Cleveland near a pick 'em for the game, though I did make a play in CLE + half point in 1Q (now, they're the favorite). Yeah, it sucks to be late to the party, but I'm still going. Raiders actually opened as small favorites for the full game. Now that several Raiders have been declared out for Saturday's game, the line has shifted to Browns -2. I'm tempted to lay that number, but instead will opt for the moneyline price at -135. A low scoring game could bring the +2 into play and I don't want to be on the right side but lose on a one-point game or a push. The Browns are healthier this week and given Las Vegas' problems at the QB situation, that issue just got worth given the injury report. WR Adams on the sideline is a killer. But it might be DE Crosby, the team's best defensive player who is the big break for the opposition Cleveland. The Browns have no excuse to lose the game versus a struggling and depleted Raiders' squad that hasn't looked good in 11 quarters this season, and looked good for just 15 minutes in that inexplicable upset of Baltimore a few weeks ago.
Pick:
Moneyline Wager: CLE (to win game) (-135)
MORE FIRST QUARTER BETS:
I'm a big believer in betting against struggling offenses laying points within small time frames. Always give me the proposition of *nothing" happening, rather than "something" happening. As a bettor, I've always preferred "boring" low-scoring games. That's because they're more predictable. Betting on shootouts and explosive teams might be exciting to casual fans, but I'm jaded by my betting bias. "exciting" games may as well be a throw of the dice at a craps table. Yes, boring is good -- my friends. Nothing happening is great. Give me a half-point on any prop when the opposing team must score in order to win and cover.
I used to do a heavy amount of first-quarter betting. Then, sportsbooks started catching on to these first-quarter props years ago. Now, they've adjusted the vig, which takes away some of these plus-points 1Q bets. Nevertheless, there are still some occasional values most weeks, especially as we now have data (three games) to back up team tendencies. Taking these dogs is especially attractive right now, particularly since many teams start young unproven QBs.
In the MIN-GB game, we'll see if QB Love returns for the Packers. Even if he plays, Love comes in potentially rusty after missing a few weeks. I'll take the hottest team in the NFC right now, undefeated Minnesota being gifted a half-point.
In the CIN-CAR game, how can the 0-3 Bengals be favored and laying points to anyone right now? They've looked awful in each game, especially early on. I have no idea is Carolina will win any more games this season, but with QB Dalton back in the lineup, that certainly sparked a much better team performance. This week, Carolina returns home with a chance to move to 2-2, and I think they'll open in Week 4 with confidence. Taking the dog plus is too attractive to pass up given Cincy's problems right now.
In the CLE-LV game, The Raiders have started notoriously bad in all three games and now have QB issues (Minshew was terrible in last week's CAR loss, was pulled, now he's starting again). While the Browns' offense will make any backer nervous, I'll go with Cleveland to keep Las Vegas in check early and the half-point to factor big in what should be a low-scoring game. Higher vig than I'll usually lay, but with both teams struggling right now and off losses, I'll take the edge with the .5.
Picks:
First Quarter Side: Minnesota 1Q +.5 (-135)
First Quarter Side: Carolina 1Q +.5 (-130)
First Quarter Side: Cleveland 1Q +.5 (-145)
PLAYER PROP: INTERCEPTIONS
I'm betting that struggling Indianapolis QB Richardson will throw at least one interception this Sunday. He's facing the NFL's top-ranked defense, surrendering a league-low 9 PPG.
Richardson is making lots of mistakes, and the Steelers are not the defense that show mercy on mistake-prone QBs. It's interesting to note that (even with limited numbers of starts in 2023 vs. 2024), Richardson is now completing 10 percent less of his passes, with just a 49 percent completion rate. He's thrown several deep balls that were badly off target -- resulting in an NFL-high 6 interceptions. That's an average of 2 picks per game.
We presume the Colts will continue to struggle facing a strong defense. If they're behind, that will also result in more throws and possible turnovers. But it's Richardson's love for throwing lots of risky deep passes that makes this "yes" wager on "will Richardson throw at least one interception" very attractive. The vig is high, which is to be expected. Even at -140, there's some value here.
Pick:
Player Prop: IND QB Richardson to throw an interception--YES (-140)
THIS WEEK’S KICKER PROPS:
As many readers know, I've been specializing in placekicker props for the past three seasons, with positive results.
Obviously, this is an imperfect science with high variance, especially on NFL kickers. I rarely play UNDERs. Many factors contribute to an "OVER" wager, and this week's picks share some of those similarities.
I tend to toss out outdoor stadiums on natural grass with possible inclement weather conditions (wind). Domes on fake rubber grass are ideal for kickers, one reason you often see the best kickers on teams that play indoors in controlled environments. I also want good kickers with proven long-range FG potential, because attempting that hypothetical 56-yarder –rather than punting on 4th down– is often the tipping point on the outcome of this player prop. I also look for offenses that could potentially struggle in the red zone (part of that includes weighing the strength of the opposing defense), which means betting on kickers with teams that are likely to attempt more FGs. Finally, I do like explosive teams that may score lots of touchdowns any given week, because those XPs can also add up.
Here's my selections for the three best PK point prop values on the board for this week's games.
Picks:
NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-125)
IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points (-105)
WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110)
::::: This page has now been fully updated–no further picks :::::
NEW: WATCH 20-MINUTE VIDEO HERE WITH PICKS ON ALL GAMES
::::: PENDING :::::
THIS WEEK'S WAGERS--FINAL REPORT:
(for those who just want the picks)
Full Game Side: NY Giants +5.5 .... W
Team Total Points (Full Game): DEN OVER 15.5
First Quarter: DEN +2.5 (-105)
Full Game Side: DEN +7.5
First-Half Side: NOR 1H +1.5 (-115)
Full game Side: NOR +3 (-115)
Full Game Side: WAS +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline Wager: CLE (to win game) (-135)
First Quarter Side: Minnesota 1Q +.5 (-135)
First Quarter Side: Carolina 1Q +.5 (-130)
First Quarter Side: Cleveland 1Q +.5 (-145)
Player Prop: IND QB Richardson to throw an interception--YES (-140)
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-125)
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points (-105)
Player Prop: WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110)
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