2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 34
LOSSES — 24
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $335
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-6 (+$418)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 3):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 3 REPORT HERE
NWE vs. NYJ -- Moneyline NY Jets (-260) .... won
Two-Team Six-Point Teaser -- NY Jets (pick) / Las Vegas (pick) (-125) .... lost
Player Prop -- NWE RB Gibson OVER 22.5 yards (-110) .... won
GB vs. TEN Total Successful Field Goals (Both Teams) OVER 3.5 (+115) .... lost
Full Game Side: Minnesota +2.5 .... won
First Half Side: Minnesota +1.5 (-125) .... won
Full Game Side: Indianapolis -1.5 .... won
Full Game Side: NY Giants +6.5 .... won
Full Game Side: Baltimore -1.5 .... won
Full Game Side: LA Rams +7 (-120) .... won
Full Game Side: Tennessee -2.5 (-120) .... lost
First-Half Side: NY Giants +3.5 (-105) .... won
First-Half Side: LA Rams +3.5 (even) .... lost
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-137) .... lost
Player Prop; ATL PK Koo OVER 6.5 points (-110) ..... lost
Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -2.5 .... won
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 190.5 passing yards .... won
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys -5.5
Moneylines: Cowboys / Giants
Total: 45.5
The preseason "look ahead" line on this game was Dallas -5. then, last Sunday night the line was Dallas -4.5. Now, it's Dallas -5.5. These are puzzling numbers which reveal an inexplicable trend. Inexplicable meaning--how is Dallas favored by this many points? For the second consecutive week, Dallas was demolished in the first half and ended up with a loss. Meanwhile, New York played pretty well for the second straight week, coming off a road victory. For both teams, wins at Cleveland have been their only bright spot among their duplicate 1-2 SU and ATS records.
Given where both teams currently stand, the line seems too high. I'd make this Cowboys -3, at the highest. Perhaps Dallas' historical domination of this series in the last several years has contributed to an public overreaction, but the Cowboys (at least so far) don't look like those explosive 12-win teams from each of the past three seasons. And while the NY Giants won't inspire much confidence given their poor record versus the Cowboys and dismal performances in primetime home games, it does seem they're not getting nearly enough respect and/or the Cowboys are getting way too much respect.
Teams favored by this many points on the road are generally proven winners and solid teams. But Dallas hasn't been that kind of team. Traditionally, Cowboys drafts and much of their (regular season) success has been built around dependable offensive lines. This unit looks average at best, and has played poorly through three games. Consider the number of sacks surrendered (9 in three games) combined with the Cowboys' horrible 30th ranking in rushing yards per game, just 74 YPG. And those numbers are just because Dallas was playing from behind each of the past wo losses, as the Cowboys also rank 29th in yards per rushing attempt. This unit isn't getting the job done, and team with holes in the line aren't good road favorites, especially not in division rivalries.
There's not much to inspire optimism with the Giants offense, which ranks average/to the lower half of the NFL in every key statistical category. But given Dallas' own problems on defense, that mediocrity might still be good enough to cover and/or get the straight up win. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing YPG. The pass defense is somewhat better, ranking 14th -- but the Giants rank higher in both statistical categories. Also, that Giants' loss in Week 1 to Minnesota wasn't as much an embarrassment now that the Vikings are 3-0 and look like one of the best teams in the NFC and then that narrow loss to Washington in Week 2 doesn't look so bad now that we've seen the Commanders (2-1 SU) might be better than were forecasted. Let's credit QB Jones for hanging tough -- he completed 24/34 for 236 yards, two TDs and no turnovers in last week's gritty 21-15 win at Cleveland, supposedly with a great defense. Now, the Dallas game looks eminently winnable considering the mess the Cowboys are in, having yielded 72 pts in their last two games and looking very bad in both contests,
If we add the short prep week (this is a Thursday night game), possible rain showers in the forecast, and the Cowboys obvious problems on defense and with the offensive line, this isn't a team that deserves laying points, certainly not more than a FG. NYG are a risky play, of course, but the number reflects what could be some outdated perceptions about the Cowboys and betting markets' slow reaction of what might be imminent -- which is a subpar year for the Cowboys.
This has all the makings of a close game, so give me the points when and where I can grab them. Note: I'm looking for +3.5 in the 1H, but currently don't see anything above +3 at +120. This could change nearling gametime.
Picks:
Full Game Side: NY Giants +5.5
THIS WEEK’S KICKER PROPS:
As many readers know, I've been specializing in placekicker props for the past three seasons, with positive results.
Obviously, this is an imperfect science with high variance, especially on NFL kickers. I rarely play UNDERs. Many factors contribute to an "OVER" wager, and this week's picks share some of those similarities.
I tend to toss out outdoor stadiums on natural grass with possible inclement weather conditions (wind). Domes on fake rubber grass are ideal for kickers, one reason you often see the best kickers on teams that play indoors in controlled environments. I also want good kickers with proven long-range FG potential, because attempting that hypothetical 56-yarder –rather than punting on 4th down– is often the tipping point on the outcome of this player prop. I also look for offenses that could potentially struggle in the red zone (part of that includes weighing the strength of the opposing defense), which means betting on kickers with teams that are likely to attempt more FGs. Finally, I do like explosive teams that may score lots of touchdowns any given week, because those XPs can also add up.
Here's my selections for the three best PK point prop values on the board for this week's games.
Picks:
NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-125)
IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points (-105)
WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110)
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THIS WEEK'S WAGERS--FINAL REPORT:
(for those who just want the picks)
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