2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 43
LOSSES — 30
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $480
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-6 (+$145)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 4):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 4 REPORT HERE
Full Game Side: NY Giants +5.5 .... W
Team Total Points (Full Game): DEN OVER 15.5 .... L
First Quarter: DEN +2.5 (-105) .... W
Full Game Side: DEN +7.5 .... W
First-Half Side: NOR 1H +1.5 (-115) .... L
Full game Side: NOR +3 (-115) .... W
Full Game Side: WAS +3.5 (-115) .... W
Moneyline Wager: CLE (to win game) (-135) .... L
First Quarter Side: Minnesota 1Q +.5 (-135) .... W
First Quarter Side: Carolina 1Q +.5 (-130) .... L
First Quarter Side: Cleveland 1Q +.5 (-145) .... W
Player Prop: IND QB Richardson to throw an interception--YES (-140) .... L
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-125) .... L
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points (-105) .... W
Player Prop: WAS PK Seibert OVER 6.5 points (-110) .... W
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Thursday)
Pointspread: Falcons -2.5
Moneylines: Falcons -130 / Buccaneers +105
Total: 43.5
We're being treated to another good Thursday night NFL game this week, which is an NFC South matchup between division rivals. My first instinct is to grab the underdog Bucs plus the points at nearly a FG, who have been the more consistent team this season at 3-1 -- both SU and ATS. Aside from a head-scratching home loss to Denver a few weeks ago, Tampa Bay has exceeded market projections so far and remains on track to defend their division crown. Nothing inspires more confidence than beating rivals on the road, particularly on a short prep week.
Atlanta's victory versus New Orleans last week was ridiculously misleading. Two fluke plays gave the Falcons a 17-14 halftime lead (including a muffed punt in the end zone, and a wild deflected pass for a pick-6). Fact is, Atlanta failed to score an offensive TD last week (four FGs were the key). They've struggled at home in all of their three games, and are 0-3 against the spread inside the dome. Offensive line problems are partially to blame. Combined with QB Cousins' nagging ankle injury which limits his mobility, I can't fathom laying points with the Falcons, especially to a team that continues to play well and get underestimated.
The trouble with betting Tampa Bay is injuries (reportedly), particularly to the WR corps and across the board on defense. I'm never sure how much weight to give to defensive injuries -- as my fading the Bucs a few weeks ago in a similar situation on the road (at Detroit) was largely based on multiple injuries to the Bucs' defensive backfield. I expected the Lions pass offense to have a field day. So, what happened? Tampa Bay held Detroit to 16 points and won outright! The Bucs also shut down the Eagles last Sunday, with much the same "problems" on their defense. Given this apparent disconnect between injuries and the logical consequences of being without key personnel, I'm not falling into that trap again. Just maybe, Tampa Bay's backups are every bit as good as the starters.
Player props worth considering were some of the receiving-related options for the Bucs. Tampa Bay throws 60 percent of their offensive plays, so this team puts the ball in the air and most receivers get touches. With WR Evans listed as questionable, that gives WR Godwin extra targets--and he's already caught 28 balls in 4 games. However, the numbers have shifted (O/U 6.5 receptions) and that's just too high. Same thing goes for the Bucs' TE. So, I've run into several dead ends on the player wagers.
The Bucs are tempting to play for the full game at plus points. That said, the better bet here looks to be Tampa Bay in the first half. The Bucs are getting +.5 (half point) and the elevated vig at -115 seems reasonable. TB is one of the NFL's best first-half teams averaging 15 PPG. Atlanta is slightly above average, but take away those two fluke TDs in the Saints game last week, and Atlanta falls to about 8.5 PPG 1H. We can't totally rely on small sample sizes but this disparity at a full TD per half shows better preparation for the Bucs and can't be ignored.
Player Props: I also recommend looking at TB sacks props, to go OVER. With the Falcons' porous OL and an immobile QB who isn't at 100 pct., I look for the Bucs to blitz more often (they rank 5th in the NFL in blitz packages according to metrics I've seen). As of yet, I haven't seen a sack O/U, but anything at 2.5 or lower, I'll bet the OVER (this wager will not be counted on record since I haven't seen odds on this yet). Let's also take a look at the longest FG O/U to go OVER 45.5 yards, assuming you can find 45.5. I've seen this range from 45-48, but won't bet it at anything higher than 46. Atlanta’s Koo is one of the NFL's most reliable long-range kickers and a game inside the dome likely increases attempts, especially since the Falcons' offense has shown a tendency to move the ball pretty well, but stalls in the opposition side of the field. Bucs’ McLaughlin is also solid, having kicked a 57-yarder this season. Again, this is a lean--results not recorded here since I haven't seen the numbers posted yet.
Another kicker prop that looks solid (which I have already bet and recorded here because the line is already up as of Wednesday morning) is “WILL BOTH TEAMS MAKE A SUCCESSFUL 33+ YARD FGS?” The YES is listed at -110. This looks like a bargain. First, these are two above average kickers playing inside a dome in a divisional game. Koo (Atlanta) is a perfect 9/9 on FGs this season. McLaughlin (Tampa Bay) is a perfect 7/7 on FGs this season. A 33-yard attempt means kicking from anywhere beyond the 16-yard line, which seems a reasonable expectation for both teams. I bet this at Westgate (Las Vegas).
Picks:
First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115)
Team Kicking Prop: Both Team to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110)
Leans:
Team Prop Full Game: Tampa Bay OVER on sacks
Team Prop Full Game: Either Team to Make a 45.5+ yard FG – YES
NY Giants at Seattle (Sunday)
Pointspread: Seahawks -6.5
Moneylines: Seahawks -270 / Giants +230
Total: 43.5
This line opened at SEA -6, and is now -6.5 juiced up to -120, and is likely to close on -7. I'm seeing most of the "experts" touting the Seahawks in this game, but it looks like a trap to me.
Let's acknowledge that Seattle began the season with three creampuff games (going 3-0) -- against DEN (rookie QB making first NFL start), NWE (arguably the worst team in the league), and MIA (without Tua, now a bottom-5 team). Then last week, they went into DET and the defense got scorched. To be clear, NYG are a return to the "creampuff" class of teams, but other intangibles point to a cover by the underdog that I think are being missed by many handicappers.
Seattle comes into Sunday's matchup off a short week, losing a MNF road game with less time to prepare. That is problematic enough, but then to look ahead to next week, Seattle will have just 4 days before playing a Thursday Night game against NFC West division rival SFO in the biggest game of the year, so far. This is a terrible "sandwich" game for the Seahawks, in between two tough games and their nemesis on deck coming in Week 6. Accordingly, I don't see Seattle as well focused for this game as they might be otherwise. They'll be content with a win without over-taxing the stars or showing much, which could create a non-cover.
Contrast this with NYG coming in with the advantage of four extra days rest. While added rest time isn't always a positive correlation for wins and covers, I think it comes into play here given the opponent's obvious big games on each side of this matchup (MNF and TNF, versus rival).
Add the fact that the Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as favorites, which tells me this unit has a history of underperforming laying points. Another remarkable stat is underdogs of 6+ points are 14-2-1 ATS so far this season, and that shows there's a strong trend towards the teams getting lots of points. Under HC Daboll, Giants are 13-6 ATS off a loss, which shows a good bounce-back team (now, they have extra prep time). Under Daboll, NYG are also 10-7 ATS as a road dog.
In last week's loss to DAL, the Giants played a conservative game that seemed to work for them (NYG were covering the entire way, though they did get lucky to get the ATS win with a late missed DAL FG). NYG used a bombardment of short dunk passes, which didn't create any big plays but also kept possession and drives moving, burning lots of clock. NYG had more total yardage, passing yards, first downs, offensive plays (16 more than DAL), and 10 min more in possession time. That game plan worked by keeping NYG in the game. I expect the Giants to replicate that game plan here, especially with WR Nabers listed as questionable.
Let's also credit the NYG defense, which gets little respect even though it ranks 12th in the NFL in yards allowed. NYG have surrendered just 4 TDs in their last three games, which demonstrates they're capable of slowing down good offensive teams (DAL, WAS). Opponents are just 17/48 on third down conversions, ranking in the top-10 among NFL teams.
Backing NYG QB Jones is often a shaky proposition, but he's probably an upgrade here given the weak lineup of QBs the Seahawks have defeated thus far -- which includes Nix (DEN), Brissett (NWE), Thompson (MIA). No wonder this defense ranks #8, which seems much more due to the terrible offenses they've faced. Last week, DET's Goff was 18/18 and found holes all over the Seahawks defense.
If this line moves to +7, this is an automatic play on NYG. However, that line move might be based on the Naber's injury. I'll also play this as +6.5, especially with no vig. UPDATE: Line moved to +7 (-115) on Friday AM. Also, on the player props, look to WR Robinson to exceed receptions in this game (prop is off the board presently). He caught 11 balls last week and has 26 catches for the season. With Jones' favoring short passes, Robinson should rank up catches (but perhaps not many yards). Nabors being out would drive this O/U up, but I still think it's a prop worth betting.
Picks:
Full Game Side: NY Giants +7 (-115)
Player Prop: NYG WR Robinson OVER receptions (TBD)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Pointspread: Jaguars -3
Moneylines: Jags -165 / Colts +145
Total: 46
Subpar quarterbacking, injuries, and weather should all contribute to an UNDER in the IND-JAX game.
IND QB Richardson is out, which means veteran Flacco gets the start. He played well in the backup role last week, and comes off a surprisingly good season with the Browns (filling in for Watson, who was injured much of 2023). Many will say Flacco is an upgrade over Richardson, which may be true. Nonetheless, I still see both offenses with problems this week. Winless Jacksonville has been horrible, with QB Lawrence apparently regressing. JAX is one of the NFL's worst teams in third-down conversions, and ranks 29th in scoring, at just 15 PPG. 3 of 4 Jags' games have gone UNDER this season.
The key injury is RB Taylor out for the Colts. Indy isn't as much of a threat with Taylor sidelined, and that puts extra pressure on Flacco. The Colts are also possibly without two OL, including their center.
Rain is forecast in Jacksonville for Sunday, which could also be gusty with another storm coming later in the week.
Interesting Stat: Colts are 0-9 SU/ATS in their last nine visits to Jacksonville.
Pick:
Full-Game Total: IND-JAX UNDER 46
FIRST QUARTER BET - New Orleans vs Kansas City
- I look at teams getting points (actually, more often -- a half point) in the first quarter. I especially like taking the other side of any struggling offense, getting the .5. This is because even if we manage a scoreless tie, we still win. Fading the prospect of a below average offense scoring the first quarter, which usually includes 2 (or 3 possessions, at most) in a single quarter is usually a good bet so long as the vig isn't too high. Of course, in this week's MNF matchup, the Chiefs do not apply to the struggling offense prerequisite. But that's offset by KC starting slowly in most games this season, and playing versus a Saints' unit that's been very good in first possessions and 1Q points. NOR leads the NFL in 1Q scoring. They also have run 36 plays on the first drive of the game (averaging 9 plays) and scored 24 points. KC's defense has also played poorly versus opponents on first drives -- allowing 24 points to opponents on the first possession of the game. Contrast this with NOR defense being very tough early on, allowing just one FG on the first four possession to opponents. So, we have an excellent 1Q team, playing an opponent known for slow starts, and we're getting the half-point with a minimal premium on the vig (-115).
Pick:
First Quarter Side: New Orleans +.5 (-115)
FIRST HALF BET - Dallas vs. Pittsburgh
- The Dallas-Pittsburgh game strikes me as very close to a toss up, even though Pittsburgh is favored at home. That translates into the 1H being also a toss up. So, when I see the Cowboys +1 with no extra vig, that's a smart bet and a good value. Through four games each, both teams have gone 2-2 in the opening half. Dallas comes in with extra rest, and should be prepared. I also like the full point here (not just the half point, with -145 vig in the 1Q) as we get a push on scenarios where the Steelers are up by a point at halftime. The Cowboys' kicker (who could be called on from any spot 65 yards in) also gives the 1H bet just a little extra weight.
Pick:
First-Half Side: Dallas +1
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK:
This week's card contains fewer picks than usual.
First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115) ... W
Team Kicking Prop: Both Teams to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110) ... W
Full Game Side: NY Giants +7 (-115)
Player Prop: NYG WR Robinson OVER receptions (TBD) ... CANCEL THIS BET (line game out of O/U 6.5)
Full-Game Total: IND-JAX UNDER 46
First Quarter Side: New Orleans +.5 (-115)
First-Half Side: Dallas +1
Sign up at www.Betcoin.ag today with the promo code NOLAN and get a 100% Bonus on your first deposit (Contact support by chat, ticket or email to claim)
Comments