2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 47
LOSSES — 32
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $655
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 4-2 (+$175)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 5):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 5 REPORT HERE
First-Half Side: Tampa Bay +.5 (-115) ... W
Team Kicking Prop: Both Teams to Make 33+ Yard FGs – YES (-110) ... W
Full Game Side: NY Giants +7 (-115) … W
Full-Game Total: IND-JAX UNDER 46 … L
First Quarter Side: New Orleans +.5 (-115) …. L
First-Half Side: Dallas +1 vs. Pittsburgh … W
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Thursday Night Football - 49ers at Seahawks
San Francisco travels to Seattle for yet another excellent TNF matchup. So far, we've been treated to an excellent lineup of mid-week games and this contest between NFC West rivals adds to a succession of very watchable (and bet-able) games.
However, both teams have struggled lately. The Seahawks and 49ers are coming off surprising upset losses last week. Both were favored big and lost in different ways. San Francisco, continuing to suffer from injuries especially on offense, fell asleep in the second half and lost at home to Arizona in a shocker. I wasn't nearly as surprised by the Giants' outright win over Seattle (I had the Giants as my best bet of Week 5). Even though most of the football world was on the Seahawks laying the points, the visiting Giants rolled to a relatively easy cover and victory.
Who wants this game more? That's hard to say, but we certainly must give the edge to Seattle, which is playing at home with the advantage of a short preparation week. I'm not sure why anyone would lay -3.5 points in a division rivalry game with a team that seems to be out of sync right now. The 49ers appear to be valued with the same level of respect they were getting in preseason, before this sloppy team gave away two games in losses (vs. ARZ and LAR) and was absolutely dominated at Minnesota. Should the 49ers -- who already lost two road games -- really be laying more than a FG here?
Both teams have played soft schedules to date. Take away Minnesota (SFO) and Detroit (SEA) on each team's schedule, and all the rest of the opponents are a combined 14-25 SU. And that SFO win in the opening MNF game hosting the NY Jets doesn't appear nearly as impressive now that we've seen what a shitshow the Jets have turned into. I'm just not seeing why the 49ers are laying this number.
I'm wary of taking the points with SEA in the first half, as tempting as that option may be. Trouble is, SFO has been an excellent 1H team, but has also been terrible in the 2H. Bear this in mind when considring halftime wagers. The 49ers outscored their last three opponents 57-20 in first half, despite losing two of those games. And, the 49ers were outscored 44-20 in the 2H of those same last three games.
A major concern betting against San Francisco is -- this team ranks 1st in offense in the NFL (passing yardage) and 2nd overall. They're also #1 in time-of-possession. But they've also stalled badly in the red zone, ranking a woeful 29th in converting those opportunities to TDs. One expects SFO's offensive stats to continue rolling up big facing a SEA defense with lots of problems and holes in it. This huge edge for SFO must also be a focus when assessing this matchup.
Player props favor SFO key players to put up above-average numbers. Initially, I looked to SFO TE Kiddle to exceed 4.5 receptions and also go OVER 48.5 receiving yards. However, I noticed when SFO is ahead in games, he gets fewer targets. If SFO enjoys a good 1H and is ahead, he might not get to those numbers. So, that keeps me off the Kiddle OVERs, though that was my early lean, especially with RB McCaffrey still ruled out. The better option for player props is SFO QB Purdy OVER on passing yardage. He's listed at O/U 247.5. Note that Purdy did not play well versus last week against Arizona (just 54 pct. pf passes completed) and still finished with 244 passing yards. In his three previous games, Purdy exceeded 280 passing yards each time. He should enjoy some success versus a banged up Seahawks' defense on a short week. I also like the fact SFO has played poorly in the 2H of recent losses, which bodes well for a situation where SFO might not take their foot off the gas, even when ahead. This plays into an excellent hedge opportunity, which will be fully explained in the next section. However, Purdy's recent performances, playing versus a soft defense, and likely motivated to "keep the pressure on" after two meltdown losses in the 4Q should help one of the league's best QBs and most efficient passers on the road. Purdy is also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in starts against Seattle.
Two bets–plus the reasons: I'm betting on Seattle +3.5 despite concerns San Francisco might enjoy success on offense. I'm hoping the edge of playing at home on a short week keeps this game close. I'm also making a somewhat contradictory wager on a player prop for QB Purdy to go OVER on passing yardage. I expect that if SFO wins and covers (and we lose the side bet), Purdy will get his yardage and we lose a little juice. However, it's also very possible that this turns into a close game, or SEA is ahead, which will force SFO to continue to throw for the full game–translating into more passing yardage. Either way, that’s good for Purdy and yardage. I can't stress enough how the late collapses in the ARZ and LAR games (both came back and won after being down 10 points) should inspire a more aggressive 49ers' offensive effort this week by Shannahn and Co. Let’s also agree this is a big upgrade on opposition QBs the Seahawks have faced after seeing Nix (first game as rookie), Brissett (NWE), MIA’s terrible backup QB, and Jones (NYG). When SEA faced a top-notch passer, DET’s Goff, he was a perfect 18/18 for nearly 300 yards in a blowout win against this defense. Hence, I'm making two wagers which are a mix of a contradiction, a hedge, and a correlation.
Picks:
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115)
Lions at Cowboys
It's rare for me to lay points on the road in NFL games. While this old handicapping axiom may be outdated given that so-called "home-field advantage" is no longer as meaningful as it once was, I still avoid attaching myself to the public hype of teams laying points as the visitor. However, here's a notable exception based on many reasons.
Facts: Detroit is the superior team. Detroit is also the rested and healthy team, compared to Dallas. Detroit also has a revenge motive in play this week, and the added potential spark of showcasing a team that struggled at times in their first four games. The word "overdue" is misapplied in handicapping but it may come into play here. Many who forecast the Lions as a Super Bowl contender are looking for a "statement game," and here's the perfect opponent and opportunity.
Dallas comes off a successful two-game road trip, despite the offense struggling. Accordingly, there might not be any sense of urgency here. The Cowboys were somewhat lucky to get wins at both NYG and PIT. In all five of their games thus far, the Cowboys offense has experienced problems. Their 3.5 YPC rushing average ranks near the bottom of the NFL. The offensive line has holes, allowing pressure and sacks. Defensively, Dallas is even worse -- ranked 31st overall on defense and now they face one of the top, most diverse offenses in the league.
Let's also acknowledge how badly the Cowboys have played on the last three occasions at home. They fell behind my multiple touchdowns in each of the previous three games (BAL, NOR, and GB in last year's playoff game). On each occasion, Dallas came back and made the final score look more respectable. Nonetheless, this team has struggled in Dallas-Arlington and has yet to put a full-game that’s impressive together in quite a while.
The revenge factor may also apply here as the Lions were screwed late in the game in a 20-19 thriller last season. The Lions scored a late TD and the winning XP score was nullified by a miscommunication with the officials. That loss really stung, and I expect Detroit won't forget it with the chance to prove themselves again in a rematch. Motivation is a big factor in team sports, and this isn't just any other game for the Lions, coached by arguably the most aggressive and emotional staff in the NFL.
The Lions are 19-9 ATS on the road under Dan Campbell, as they've been an excellent road team, even when laying points.
Detroit has multiple weapons on offense with the RB duo of Montgomery and Gibbs. The passing game should also excel with Dallas defensive players Parsons and Lawrence sidelined.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ run game has been almost non-existent. And take away WR Lamb, and Dallas doesn't have much of a deep threat. Also notable is the fact that Lamb, once the clutch go-to WR for QB Prescott, has pulled a disappearing act in the second half – he has just four catches for 25 yards all season post-halftime.
QB Goff is 38-18 ATS (68 win pct. -- best record in the NFL) in indoor games over his career, and 20-11-1 (63 win pct.) with extra rest. Contrast these numbers with QB Prescott who struggles against winning teams -- he's just 19-33 ATS (36 pct. wins) against teams above .500, compared to 32-15-1 ATS versus teams below .500. This horrid 19-33 ATS mark ranks 263rd out of 266 quarterbacks since 2003 (credit Evan Abrams for that remarkable stat).
Pick:
Full-Game Side: Detroit -3
Bengals at Giants
Why is Cincinnati laying points to anybody on the road? They're in last place at 1-4 SU and have given up more points than any team--other than awful Carolina. Speaking of the Panthers, that's Cincinnati's only victory this season, and even in that victory the Carolina offense tagged this defense for 24 points. Last four games, Bengals putrid defense has allowed 26-38-24-41 points. Laying a point or two might be a stretch, but the Bengals favored at -3.5 makes no sense.
In their defense, Cincinnati has played several tough opponents, including Kansas City, Washington, and Baltimore. But the Giants have actually played the stronger schedule since their opponents are a combined 16-9 SU.
The Giants are 2-3 on the season, including 3-0 ATS in their last three games. NYG success is largely due to a better defense than was expected. The Giants rank 12th in D, despite playing 3/5 opponents ranked in the top-12 offensively. The Bengals offense will pose another tough challenge, yet we have seen the G-Man rise to the occasion defensively.
Cincinnati has performed well in seasons past at this time of year (they often start slowly, then pick up momentum in October). A number of trends also favor the Bengals as a solid "rebound" team off losses. But that divisional loss to Baltimore at home had to be devastating, especially losing the lead versus their rival. As for NYG, this team under HC Daboll has performed well under these circumstances as during his tenure the Giants are 10-5 ATS coming off a win as well as 9-4 ATS as a home underdog
Last week when backing the Giants as +7 point dogs, I acknowledged the (lack of) offense was a serious concern. Still, QB Jones has been remarkably both consistent and efficient in his last three games, if also admittedly unspectacular. In the Seattle victory, NYG were without some key personnel but still managed to move the ball well, and score points.
This week, we're still not certain if WR Nabors is playing (chances are slightly better than 50/50 as of Thursday news reports). Then again, the Giants are playing this game on Sunday night, so extra time could increase the odds of him in uniform. Prior to his injury in Week 4, Nabers was putting on a show for the NYG offense. He led the NFL with 35 receptions and incredibly he's still ranked #1 in the league despite missing a full game. Nabers also has 386 yards and 3 touchdowns this season.
I foresee a close game where the extra hook on the FG could be a factor. The Giants at +3 was already an easy decision, and now at +3.5 (even if Nabors doesn't suit up) this is an even stronger play.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3.5
Two Player Kicking Props: Pittsburgh at Las Vegas
I like two kicking props in the Steelers-Raiders game. With two sputtering offenses between teams that desperately need the win, I foresee a game of field goals. In fact, a back and forth game of kicks likely inspires more kicking attempts later in the game and clearly impacts play-calling. Both kickers in this matchup are totalled with an O/U of 6.5 points. Kick away to the moon!
Boswell (Pittsburgh) and Carlson (Las Vegas) are both excellent, experienced kickers. Both also have decent stats on long-range attempts. Boswell is 12/13 this season. Carlson isn't as good, but is still 8/10.
Domes always are good for kickers and the Las Vegas stadium has been especially kicker-friendly. The indoor angle hasn't been as strong in recent years (recall two of the best kickers in the NFL play outdoors in KC and BAL), but it's still conforting not to have to worry about winds or inclement weather affecting kickers.
Uncertainty with both teams at the QB position probably leads to fewer risks and more conservative game plans. This is especially true with the Raiders, who are making a change at QB this week. It also reduces the chance of going for 4th downs, instead opting to kick.
In kicker scoring props, 6.5 is the most common number. The natural combo for betting OVERs is two or more FGs and at least one XP (3+3+1=7). We don;t expect these offenses to score many TDs, so the FG attempts will be critical.
Picks:
Player Prop: PIT PK Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-137)
Player Prop: LV PK Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-110)
First-Half Bet: Cardinals at Packers
In the Arizona-Green Bay matchup, I'm taking the Cardinals +3.5 in the first half lined at -120. Before listing my reasons, let me initially argue against my position. Arizona is coming off a huge upset win versus a division rival (SFO) and now must travel on the road for consecutive weeks versus a winning team (GB). This looks like an obvious letdown spot for the Cardinals, and yes -- that could happen. While I also like the Cardinals for the full game at +5 (the line has dropped from +6), I think the stronger wager is to play Arizona to keep this close within the margin of a FG at halftime.
Arizona has been slightly better as a first half team this season through five games, scoring 13.8 PPG/1H on average. Green Bay is also well above average at 13.2 PPG/1H. They're also about even in 1H points allowed. That said, the edge of getting a FG+ is too tempting to pass up.
Arizona has played the far tougher schedule, so far -- facing top-level competition including 3-2 San Francisco, 4-1 Washington, 3-1 Detroit, 3-2 Buffalo, and the 1-4 LA Rams. Green Bay has enjoyed a softer schedule, including Tennessee, Indy, and the LA Rams. Let's also credit the Cardinals for their 2-0 ATS road record, matched against the Packers' 0-2 ATS record at home. I'm not sure how much we should go back with data since personnel changes from year-to-year but the Cardinals are often dogs on the road and have excelled for bettors when least expected. Arizona is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
One final tidbit of statistical data that puts me on ARZ 1H is an expectation that GB's advantageous turnover ratio will return-to-the-mean. We can't product turnovers most of the time, but with 14 takeaways in 5 games and a +7 TO margin (tops in the NFL), that's a stat we expect will not continue. So long as Arizona doesn't turn the ball over, that reduces the significance of the Packers' data. Any team that's +7 in turnovers should easily enjoy a winning record and I'll fade that from happening in at this rate.
Pick:
First-Half Side: Arizona +3.5 (-120)
Buccaneers @ Saints
The Bucs are in the uncharacteristic spot of being favored at New Orleans. WTF? That's quite a turnaround from just three weeks ago when the 2-0 Saints appeared to be unstoppable, but have since played three subpar games and will now be without QB Carr who is injured for this contest.
At 3-2 SU, Tampa Bay enters this matchup with several advantages. First, they play this Sunday on 10-days rest as opposed to New Orleans which comes off a MNF road game, and half of that time to prepare. The Bucs also look like the superior team at the moment, especially on offense. Tampa Bay has scored 33-30 points in their last two games (posting 7 TDs on 19 drives).
A few trends also favor Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog in the QB Mayfield era. The Superdome isn't the home advantage it once was as New Orleans is just 7-9 ATS their last 16 games as a home favorite going back to 2022.
The hurricane in Florida that hit on Wednesday could have been a huge distraction for Tampa Bay and its players/coaches, but that shouldn't be an issue as the Bucs flew into New Orleans early in the week. One expects they will be well-focused.
The biggest advantage for the road favorite here is the Saints starting rookie QB Rattler (great name for a QB). Carr's injury will have him sidelined for a few weeks and backup/utility QB Hill is also out for the game. In fact, nine Saints are listed as either out or questionable, which is the primary reason why the visiting Bucs are sizable favorites. Let’s also give a nod to Bucs DC Bowles’ defense going up against a rookie passer making his pro debut. Tampa Bay runs one of the most blitz-heavy schemes in the NFL -- 31 percent of passing plays according to one stat I've seen. Given the poor shape of the Saints’ offensive line at the moment (which was manhandled in KC last week), we can expect Rattler to get rattled many times.
Offensively, Tampa Bay and New Orleans rank about the same (#15 and #16) in YPG. But that's with QB Carr healthy, and Hill as a multi-talented threat on offense. The Saints still have major weapons--the question is, will they get the ball enough times to factor in?
I might have given -3 with Tampa Bay, but now that the line has moved to -3.5, the wiser play might be the Bucs on the moneyline. Given several advantages, including a big edge at QB and extra rest, I expect Tampa Bay should win the game and the -175 lay price doesn't seem out of line. I also found it interesting that NOR PK Grupe, who is a kicker I tend to bet on (I've specialized in kicking props for the past few years) now has his lowest point total of his career, at O/U 5.5. Grupe is solid inside the dome and is almost always 6.5 or higher. Actually, 7.5's are common with Grupe. In this game, he's down to 5.5 (-130). That shows the prop markets don't like the Saints to put many points on the board. Oh, and TB PK McLaughin is O/U 7.5 (-110). That's a major disparity given the line here is just -3.5 points on the game, but one kicker is lined 2 points higher. There might be some way to exploit this or even hedge, and I'll keep searching for any opportunity. Also, Grupe is probably worth a look and maybe a wager here, even with the high vig.
Pick:
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -175
Interesting Player Prop / Middle Opportunity: Tampa Bay-New Orleans
- In the TB-NOR game, the Saints will start rookie QB Spencer Rattler due to the Carr injury. Rookie QBs aren't typically expected to post big numbers on stats, but opinions on this player's props are all over the board. As of Friday night, Stations lists Rattler's O/U passing yardage at 195.5 (juiced -125 to the UNDER). However, Circa has this same prop at 187.5 (juiced -110 to the OVER). Here's a rare 8-yard middle which would likely be worth a try if it weren't for that sticky -125 at Stations. Looking at a Bell Curve on passing numbers, the deviation is likely within the range with an 8-yard middle, especially on a low number (if this was a premier QB in a high-totalled game, the 8 yards wouldn't be as significant). I point this out because that's a tempting middle to shoot for for those who like to go for a sizable score with little investment. For me, the -125 is a prohibitive pass. At -115/-100 it would probably trigger a bet on each side.
Player Prop: Fade Deshaun Watson
It almost seems too obvious to bet against just about anything on the board connected to Cleveland QB Watson. The often-maligned (deservedly so) QB has been dreadful with the Browns. He even appears to be regressing by the week. Now might be a good time to fade him, since he might not be in the starting lineup much longer.
Watson's O/U on passing yardage this week versus Philadelphia on the road is 192.5. That's a lower-than-average number (league avg. is about 225 YPG). But it's a relatively high number for Watson, who has barely exceeded this number just once in five games. Watson's yardage stats in successive weeks show: 169-186-196-176-125. What's most remarkable about those horrid stats are the fact Watson was playing from behind in most games, often against prevent defenses where passing yardage should be easy. His attempts are higher than league average, at about 36 pass attempts per game. But Watson has been futile under center (both this season, and last). Through 5 games, the Browns ranks dead last in several offensive categories, including passing yardage and 3rd-down conversions (which are crucial and very connected).
Another site has this number at 189.5 which I think is still playable. But if you can get the 192.5 (at Circa as of Friday night), that appears to be a bargain.
There's also an intangible to this wager. Last week, Watson clashed with the head coach over a decision to go for a FG on 4th down and was unhappy with the play-calling throughout the game. Now playing a third consecutive road start, and coming off a horrendous performance versus Washington (just 125 yards passing), I think there's some chance he gets pulled mid-game in favor of (likely) Jameis Winston. Just about anything is an improvement for the Browns at this point and there's plenty of evidence he's lost the locker room and his team. The longer Browns HC Stefanski sticks with Watson, it will be at his own peril (and likely firing). One suspects that pigshit contract weighs down the Browns and forces Cleveland to stick with Watson longer than would otherwise be expected. That said, this could be the week he gets yanked. With Watson and a runner and a poor OL (26 sacks allowed, one of the worst in the league), there's also the chance he goes down with an injury, which isn't something I normally cheer for even with a wager, but that must be factored in.
Let's also credit the Eagles for being a team that sustains drives and burns clock. If Philadelphia puts together multiple drives, that gives Watson fewer chances to throw.
So, we have stats on our side, plus recent trends, and a few intangibles, and we also got a good number. Also, big plays aren't in Watson's stat line -- longest pass completion in 176 attempts is just 30 yards. So, we get the added advantage of less of a chance of massive chunks of yardage in big plays.
The only thing that scares me here is, this almost looks too obvious.
Pick:
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson UNDER 192.5 passing yards
LATE ADDED PICK: PLAYER PROP
In the Arizona-Green Bay game, I bet ARZ QB Murray to go OVER 32.5 rushing yards.
QB rushing yardage is largely dependent on whether the runs are by design or happen in response to an aggressive pass rush. With Murray, we get both possibilities. Aside from Jackson (BAL), Hurts (PHI), Allen (BUF), and Fields (when he was with CHI), no QB rushed for more yards than Murray in the last two seasons, and that's with several games missed due to injury. Also note that Murray likes to tuck the ball and run with 7-1-5-5-5 attempts respectively in this season's five games. The only game where he didn't rush for 5+ carries was the blowout loss to WAS. Yardage wise, Murray has surpassed 32.5 yards in 4 of his 5 games, showing rushing yardage totals of 83-3-45-59-57 yards this season. So, he's crushed this O/U in 4/5ths of games and now with the Packers up next we are likely to see him scramble. Against duel-threat QBs this season, which includes Richardson (IND) and Hurts (PHI), the Packers' defense allowed those QBs to surpass this yardage total. We also have less a chance that Murray loses yardage at end of the game in kneel downs as the Cardinals are modestly priced underdogs in this contest (this sometimes kills yardage numbers, since 1-2 yards is subtracted on each kneel down). Coming off an 83-yard outburst in rushign yardage last week, I expect we'll see Murray want to carry his team and will be wiling to go for extra yardage in what is a big game for the Cardinals.
Pick:
ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK [For those who just want the picks]:
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5 ... L
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115) ... W
First-Half Side: Arizona +3.5 (-120)
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -175
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson UNDER 192.5 passing yards
Player Prop: PIT PK Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-137)
Player Prop: LV PK Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-110)
Full-Game Side: Detroit -3
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3.5
ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
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