2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 52
LOSSES — 37
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $590
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-5 (-$65)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 6):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 6 REPORT HERE
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5 ... L
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115) ... W
First-Half Side: Arizona +3.5 (-120) ...L
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115) ... L
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -175 ... W
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson UNDER 192.5 passing yards ... W
Player Prop: PIT PK Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-137) ... W
Player Prop: LV PK Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-110) ... L
Full-Game Side: Detroit -3 ... W
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3.5 ... L
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Thursday Night Football - Broncos at Saints
Thursday night's interconference matchup between Denver and New Orleans presents an excellent handicapping puzzle with several possible positive expectation wagers. Though I don't see value in betting either side with the Broncos as a small road favorite on a short week, the quarterback-related props do offer a good chance to profit based on recent history and some presumptions that both young quarterbacks will make mistakes.
Let's begin with a positive performance related prop on Bo Nix, the rookie QB for Denver. So far, it's been a rough start to the season for the highly-touted Nix. He's tossed just 5 touchdown passes along with 5 interceptions. However, Nix has also seemed more comfortable and confident each week. Playing inside a dome at New Orleans will likely offer him better conditions than he's used to outdoors in Denver, at NY Jets (in a driving rainstorm), or on the road at Seattle. Nix has a positive directional trajectory pointing upward, yet his O/U on passing yardage is lower than the worst quarterbacks in the NFL (recall CLE D. Watson was O/U 192.5 last week). Inexplicably, Nix is listed this week (Westgate Las Vegas) at 186.5. That's off by --in my estimation-- at least 20 yards. I'm going OVER on Nix's passing yards. Start with Nix's last five games -- four of which sailed over this number. Recent form shows 216-206-60-216-246...and that lone "under" was in a rainstorm in NY two weeks ago. It's also important to note this is a Sean Payton-coached team (back in NOR for the first time since leaving the Saints) and he's an aggressive coach who likes to throw. Despite the rookie tag, Nix is sill averageing 34 passes per game, which is in the upper half of the NFL. He's also enjoyed completions of 19+ in 5/6 games, which means all he needs is roughly a 10 yard average, per completion, to break the passing yardage number. Finally, let's state the obvious: The Saints' defense got ass-greased for 51 points last week. This unit has surrendered 325-331-238-311-293-135 (and that 135 allowed was against Carolina's QB trashbag Young). Those numbers are horrible. I expect that even if Denver is leading, the Broncos will use this opportunity for Nix to throw and continue developing as the franchise quarterback.
The flip side of the prop on Nix is betting him to also throw at least one interception. That prospect is listed at YES-minus 140. Yes, the vig is high but rookies still make mistakes and if he matches jis 34 attempts per game average, I expect the New Orleans opportunistic defense will nab at least one turnover. Nix has tossed nearly one per game, though he's improved accuracy in the last few weeks. Note that Nix's vig on the interception-YES prop is higher than the rookie QB on the other side of the ball....why is this so given the Broncos are favored and Nix has slightly more game experience? Easy answer -- the Saints have already tallied 10 interceptions in 6 games, well above the league average. I suspect that opposing coaches know this defense gives up yardage, so they throw more and a few of those extra balls get intercepted.
It might seem correlated, but it's more coincidental. I'm also liking the Saints' rookie QB Rattler to get picked off at least once. He's listed at interception-YES at -130. We don't have lots of data on Rattler given that he's only played in one NFL game. But let's agree he put up a gutsy performance last week at home versus Tampa Bay. No one expected much from the 5th-round draft pick, but he got New Orleans to 24 points, passed for 247 yards, completed 61 pct. of passes -- and also threw TWO interceptions. I actually foresee those decent numbers will give the Saints' offensive staff enough confidence to let him air it out this week. He threw 40 times last week. The more a rookie QB puts the ball up, the more opportunity we have to cash as these props are always a law-of-large-numbers game. If Rattler is playing from behind, that's even a better situation for the QB to toss a pick.
Final thought: We have two rookie QBs starting this week in short prep time. We are betting both QBs to toss at least one interception. The prospect of BOTH starters not making a mistake and throwing a pick seems highly unlikely. A split here isn't exactly satisfying. But I simply can't imagine we won't see at least one interception in this game, combined with compelling reasons to bet Nix's passing yardage OVER the total. Of course, these props are always a bit risky with QB injuries and concussion protocols. We've already lost two QB prop bets this season due to early-game QB injuries, which are impossible to predict.
Picks:
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix to throw an interception--YES (-140)
Player Prop: QB S. Rattler to throw an interception--YES (-130)
WHAT AN UGLY THURSDAY NIGHT
“Mamma’ told me there would be days like this,” sang Van Morrison. Yeah, it was one of those days. Wow, that was an ugly game on TNF. The props went 0-3. What a shitshow.
When I lose badly, I try to figure out what was missed or what I did wrong. I'm perfectly comfortable with losing one of the interception bets (two balls should have been intercepted), and I'd also bet the Nix OVER 186.5 yards again (he had 134 passing yards at halftime). What I didn't foresee was Denver being so far ahead in the game that the Broncos stopped throwing the ball. I think Nix threw one pass in the entire fourth quarter. A wager I did blow was Nix throwing an interception. This was a mistake. I put too much weight on the Saints and their 10 ints. coming into this game.
Point is -- we can always learn from our mistakes. Now, it's time to move on.
KICKER PLAYER PROPS
Since I began specializing in kicker props about three seasons ago (and made a lot of money on bad lines), I've watched the NFL market slowly but surely correct itself. Much like my halftime betting angles 23 years ago which were widely publicized and gradually moved second-half lines to the point of no longer having any value, I have no doubt that handicappers and bettors caught on to the bad lines put out by sportsbooks, took advantage, and then public handicappers began publicizing this as some kind of new discovery. We used to see 5.5s and even 4.5s on kicker point over/unders all the time. Now, they are almost non-existant (we still see a few 5.5s, but those are juiced heavily). So now, we are stuck with stale numbers, which are 6.5 and 7.5.
If anything, there's probably value in betting some of the 7.5s to go UNDER, assuming we can get plus-money. Reason is, so long as there are not 2 or more field goals in the game, it takes FIVE extra points to eclipse the 7.5 with one FG. Of course, some teams (often with very prolific offenses) kick no field goals in a game, so that virtually locks a kicker point prop UNDER, which seems counterintuitive.
Point is, I'll be hunting for more UNDER 7.5 kicker point prop opportunities in the weeks to come. I actually suspect oddsmakers may have skewed the numbers on kickers too high in some instances, so I'm going to try and identify favorable spots.
Nevertheless, I've two more blasts from the kicker prop past. They're both in the Miami-Indianapolis game.
We have two offenses that could struggle. Miami has been horrific offensively, but QB Huntley is making his third start with the Dolphins and expect he'll make strides. He's also facing an awful defense this week, so look for Miami to move the ball with some efficiency. MIA PK Sanders made three FGS last week. His last two games, he's made 54 and 56 yarders. And those were with a Dolphins offense with dismal numbers. Inside the dome in Indy will help also. I suspect this isn't juiced to the OVER higher than -110 because of concerns the Dolphins will continue to struggle. I see that as a positive, hoping that Miami gets bogged down in the red zone and we sail this number over with a couple of FGs and an XP.
The Colts are a quagmire. I got fucked last week when Indy stated all week long that Richardson was starting at QB, so I bet the Titans. The line moved 3 points based on this news. Then, the Sunday morning of the game, here comes Joe Flacco, who is playing like he's with the 2012 Ravens. I mean, in the three games he's played, Flacco has the NFL's third-highest QB rating. Indy also won 2 of those games and would have won all three had it not been for a shit defense. Point is--I can't trust the injury reports from the Colts. Moreover, now they're yanking Flacco's chain and bringing back Richardson, who has played pretty poorly in his starts (3 TDs, 6 INTs). With Richardson, I'm also counting on offensive stalls and a higher chance for FGs rather than TDs. Miami's defense is vulnerable, so the Colts should rack up some yardage. These two kicker props also have a small correlation as "a game of FGs" leads to more FGs. In other words, close games with offensive uncertainties leads to more conservative play calling and a mentality to take the points whenever they're available. The high vig on IND PK Gay is higher than I like, but there's still some value here. Last three games Gay has posted point totals of 8-10-9 easily sailing OVER this 6.5 number. Of course, that was with Flacco at QB and now Richardson is starting.
Picks:
Player Prop: MIA PK Sanders OVER 6.5 points vs. IND (-110)
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points vs. MIA (-135)
MIAMI TE SMITH – OVER ON RECEIVING YARDAGE
Betting on tight ends can be tricky, whether that's trying to predict number of catches or yardage. However, the trajectory seems to point upward with Dolphins TE Smith, especially this week. He's listed at just 18.5 receiving yards versus Indianapolis.
This number is certainly deflated because of Miami's offensive struggles without injured QB Tua. However, backup Hutley is now starting his third game and off a bye, and also off a win. In his last game, TE Smith was targeted 8 times (for 5 catches). Reports are the Dolphins will continue bringing Smith more into the passing game. He's averaged 28 yards per game this season, well over this number. He's also facing a porous defense that surrenders yardage, especially after the catch. In favorable conditions, so long as Smith gets a fair percentage of throws I suspect he should break this relatively low yardage total. Colts give up 234 passing yards per game, the NFL's 26th-ranked pass defense. Even with Miami's limited attack, a big target like Smith will be a "go to" receiver, especially since Huntley hasn't yet shown any connection with his wideouts. I'm looking for 4 or 5 catches and at least 19+ yards from Smith this week versus a subpar secondary.
Pick:
Player Prop: MIA TE Smith OVER 18.5 receiving yards vs. IND (-115)
MNF: LA CHARGERS -2
The Chargers are a different team under coach Harbaugh. That was evidenced in last week's road game at Denver, which the Chargers dominated on both sides of the ball, leading 23-0 at the end of the 3Q (Denver made the final score look misleading with a few late scores). In years past, that's the kind of game where LAC would have likely struggled, or even lost outright. This season, LAC play a more smash-mouth approach, which is a characteristic no one has ever associated with the Chargers.
LAC come into this game with a number of injury concerns. But Arizona is banged up, too. In fact, we may see a number of starters miss action, which I suspect will increase the huge advantage in this game enjoyed by the LAC defense. The Bolts lead the league in scoring defense, are 8th in pass defense and 6th in rush defense, this season. Meanwhile, the porous Cardinals are 27th in scoring defense, 22nd in pass defense and 29th against the run.
Monday night home dogs used to be gold in NFL betting, but that's no longer true. Also, while it's a small sample size, heading into this Sunday HOME DOGS HAVE GONE 0-10 ATS. Yeah, that doesn't necessarily mean anything to this matchup, except as evidence that home-field "advantage" continues to deteriorate in the NFL as a factor.
I expected this line wou;d be LAC -3, and the rash of injuries drive it down to -1.5, and it's now at -2. I'll counter that with QB Herbert being mostly healthy again after an ankle injury. I expect that as his rushing attack continue to develop, that takes pressure of Herbert and he'll actually perform better. ALso, look for RB Dobbins to get fed 20+ carries and eclipse 100+ yards against a bad defense. I'd bet Dobbins OVER on rushes, but those numbers have adjusted now based on the other RB for the Chargers being sidelined.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: LA Chargers -2 vs. ARZ
GREAT MIDDLE ON RAIDERS QB PASSING YARDAGE:
- I found a great middle on LAR QB O' Connell, who faces the LA Rams. He's O/U 209.5 yards (-115) at one site (Westgate Las Vegas) and O/U 218.5 (-110) at another site (Stations Casinos). That gives us a 9-yard middle to win both. I only had $600 available at one of the sites, so I maxed out that bet. Otherwise, I would have bet $1K on each side. Still, worst-case risk of a loss is $90 but the upside of winning $1,145. On a lower-than average passing expectation, middles are more likely since the window of opportunity is wider proportional to the total. At these odds, we only need this middle to hit 1 in 12 times, and I suspect the odds of passing yardage landing within 210-218 are better than that. The lesson here is--be on the lookout for scalping opportunities. They're rare, but they're out there.
FIRST-HALF BETS
I see two first-half bets with value this week. I'm taking points with arguably the best team in football and the worst team in football--for very different reasons. Here, I'll explain.
Kansas City (5-0) at San Francisco (3-3) is a Super Bowl rematch. I understand why some bettors might be tempted to take the 49ers for the full game, but I'm aiming for the shorter duration here and playing just the first half. Can anyone point to a quality win from the 49ers this season? The Jets? The Patriots? The Seahwaks? Puuhhleeeze. San Francisco hasn't delivered a standout performance yet. Not that the talent isn't there to do so -- but why would things suddenly come together this week? Against Kansas City? Has anyone looked at Andy Reid's record off a bye? Answer: He's 21-4, which is the best record in NFL history. While it's tempting to bet the Chiefs for the full game, the better value here might be KC in the 1H getting a half-point (-120). I don't want to oversimplify things, but I'll take the NFL's best team, until someone proves otherwise, getting points with a coach and staff that clearly excel when given extra prep time.
The other first-half bet I like is the early game, in London. Oddsmakers may have baked in too much to the Jaguars-London love affair. That sure didn't help them last week, as Jacksonville was skinned alive by Chicago. If you watched that game closely and saw the Jags' sideline, you observed the faces of a dejected team, a QB that is regressing, and a head coach (and staff) that might be in the unemployment line by the time the team plane touches down back in the U.S. New England, the Jaguars' opponent this week doesn't inspire much confidence either. However, at this point JAX shouldn't be favored by this many points (-6 on the game line) over anybody. If we take that line and now see the 1H at NWE +3.5 (-120), that's a gift with the hook on the 3. I like the Patriots to cover a FG anyway, and now getting the added half point really makes this a comfortable bet. Both offenses could struggle, so give me points where I can get them, especially over a key number (3). But the real handicapping angle I'm applying here is the expectation the Jags and this staff are finished. I don't know how a team that's been so disappointing can turn around a season in 6 days on foreign soil. Very unique situation, but New England looks like a gift at this number. I also took a half point with JAX in the first quarter, at slightly elevated vig.
Picks:
First-Half Side: New England +3.5 vs. Jacksonville (-120)
First-Quarter Side: New England .5 vs. Jacksonville (-115)
First-Half Side: Kansas City +.5 vs. San Francisco (-120)
A FEW MORE QUICKIES:
- For a little added sugar, I'm going with three underdogs on sides, all getting the magic number (+3):
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 vs. Green Bay
Full-Game Side: Miami +3 vs. Indianapolis
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3 vs. Philadelphia
::::: This completes Week 7 picks :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115) ... L
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix to throw an interception--YES (-140) ... L
Player Prop: QB S. Rattler to throw an interception--YES (-130) ... L
First-Half Side: New England +3.5 vs. Jacksonville (-120)
First-Quarter Side: New England .5 vs. Jacksonville (-115)
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 vs. Green Bay
Full-Game Side: Miami +3 vs. Indianapolis
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3 vs.Philadelphia
Player Prop: MIA PK Sanders OVER 6.5 points vs. IND (-110)
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points vs. MIA (-135)
Player Prop: MIA TE Smith OVER 18.5 receiving yards vs. IND (-115)
First-Half Side: Kansas City +.5 vs. San Francisco (-120)
Full-Game Side: LA Chargers -2 vs. ARZ
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