2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 57
LOSSES — 45
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — +$160
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-5 (-$430)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,160
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 7):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 7 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115) … L
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix to throw an interception–YES (-140) … L
Player Prop: QB S. Rattler to throw an interception–YES (-130) … L
First-Half Side: New England +3.5 vs. Jacksonville (-120) ... L
First-Quarter Side: New England .5 vs. Jacksonville (-115) ... W
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 vs. Green Bay ... W
Full-Game Side: Miami +3 vs. Indianapolis ... L
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3 vs.Philadelphia ... L
Player Prop: MIA PK Sanders OVER 6.5 points vs. IND (-110) ... L
Player Prop: IND PK Gay OVER 6.5 points vs. MIA (-135) ... W
Player Prop: MIA TE Smith OVER 18.5 receiving yards vs. IND (-115) ... W
First-Half Side: Kansas City +.5 vs. San Francisco (-120) ... W
Full-Game Side: LA Chargers -2 vs. ARZ ... L
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 8)
VIKINGS AT RAMS (TNF) -- PLAYER PROP
The chances seem better than even that Rams QB Stafford will toss at least one interception in Thursday's home game hosting the Vikings. Stafford is listed at -115 OVER .5 interceptions. I’m betting OVER (or YES).
Stafford can be a gutsy QB at times. But he also unnecessarily forces lots of his throws and has a higher than average pick-6 rate. When playing from behind, Stafford often makes even more mistakes. We presume the Rams will trail in this game since they're the underdog, which plays into Stafford having to do more with the ball and throwing to the wrong jersey at least once.
Stafford's stats show 4 ints on the season, but that also includes 1 in each of the last 3 games. Stafford passed only 23 times last week versus the lowly Raiders, but that was against a bad team and the Rams held the lead most of the game. He didn’t have to throw or do very much to win. Look for 30+ pass attempts in this game facing a far tougher defense.
Minnesota's defense is #1 in the league in forcing interceptions, at nearly 2 per game. Part of the reason for the Vikings' success at forcing turnovers is their pressuring opposing QB. By some metrics, Minnesota leads the league in blitzing and hurrying the opposition, which likely forces Stafford into even more mistakes in this matchup. The Rams OL looked disjoined much of last week and that's unlikely to get fixed in 4 days. It would be one thing if the Rams were facing a mediocre defense with predictable blitz patterns which means Stafford won’t take many risks, but here they get the worst possible situation.
Pick:
Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR - QB Stafford Interception YES (-115)
BEARS AT COMMANDERS -- PLAYER PROP
We've watched Chicago QB Williams steadily improve over the course of the first-half of the season. The 4-2 Bears are suddenly in playoff contention in the NFL's toughest division. Much of the reason for the Bears' success is due to Williams, who now leads a well-balanced offensive attack that has produced 95 points in their past three games (24-36-35 points scored). I expect that offensive (and scoring) success will continue this week against 5-2 Washington.
The Commanders are another surprise team. Fortunately, their high-scoring offense (31 PPG, ranking second in the NFL) should be inclined to increase the odds of a shootout happening. That's good for passing yardage. Washington's defensive pass stats are decent (11th in the NFL) but then 4 of their 7 opponents have been among the worst offenses in the NFL (CAR, CLE, NYG, ARZ). Chicago should provide a tougher than average test this week.
Williams is coming off his best game as a pro, and is also off a bye. That seems like an ideal combination for another good outing. Two weeks ago, Williams tossed 4 TD passes. One expects he'll be given the opportunity to put the ball up again this week, spelling decent passing yardage. It also helps that Williams has averaged 270 YPG in his last four games, with one of the NFL's highest individual passing ratings.
One factor that seems counterintuitive -- a stronger opponent that scores lots of points probably increases Williams' passing yardage numbers. If The Bears are ahead, they won't throw as much. I expect this game could see lots of scoring, especially if WAS QB Daniels is healthy and plays. Two of the best young QBs in the game could mean yards and points.
Pick:
Player Prop: CHI vs. WAS - QB Williams OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
CARDINALS AT DOLPHINS: TEAM TOTAL
The big news is that QB Tua is back this week. However, I'm not convinced that's suddenly going to jump start the dead battery that's inside the Miami offensive engine. The Dolphins have been horrid offensively this entire season. Their scoring point totals have been as follows: 16-15-12-3-10-20. None of their games have come close to breaking the 24+ mark. Even Tua's previous two starts in weeks 1-2 (prior to injury) were mediocre. Given his vulnerabilities, it's not even certain he'll last long as the Miami starter. This looks like an obvious public and market overreaction to Tua's return, which I'm glad to fade as a bettor. Perhaps he'll do well the rest of the way. Nevertheless, I don't see the Dolphins suddenly turning into the team from last season given all the rust and question marks.
Let's add a few comments about the Cardinals defense, which for all its weaknesses and criticism, played a masterful game last week. They kept the Chargers out of the end zone. Statistically, Arizona ranks near the bottom of several defensive categories, but Miami isn't in the same class as most other Cardinals' opponents, including LAC, GB, DET, SFO, WAS, and BUF. That's a brutal lineup of good offenses that would make any D look bad. They get a softer foe this week, considering Miami's obvious problems scoring points.
A few intangibles: Miami's kicker (Sanders) is below average (10 of 14 FGs made). Miami offensive troubles are really striking, especially considering the Dolphins lead the NFL (#1) in offensive plays per game. Yet, they rank #22 in total yards per game.
I'm surprised this O/U isn't 22.5, at the most. Even that number is high, considering the Dolphins haven't scored 21+ in any of their six games. But now to pick up wins on key numbers 23 and 24 makes this especially juicy. I'll go UNDER on Miami's team total for the full game.
Pick:
Full-Game Team Total: ARZ vs. MIA - DOLPHINS UNDER 24.5 (-115)
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS: PLAYER PROP
LVR PK Carlson has a low point total this week, currently at 5.5 (-110). Most kicker props fall into the 6.5 to 7.5 range, so a 5.5 often means the opposing defense is especially strong. That's certainly the case with Kansas City. Yet, I don't think that will inhibit the kicking numbers. It could actually improve them.
Another reason a PK’s point number would be point totalled at 5.5 (and no extra vig) would be a below average kicker. However, that's not the case with Carlson, an experienced placekicker who has been one of the best in the league in recent years (88 pct. of FGs made, on 200+ attempts over the course of his career).
The Raiders offense could struggle with QB Minshew back under center and starting again. However, that could also play into more FG attempts rather than touchdowns. For all the 2-5 Raiders' troubles this season, kicking has not been one of their problems. Carlson is a very respectable 15 of 15 FGs, and perfect on XPs. He's also 4/5 from beyond the 50 yard mark. Carlson also comes off a perfect 5/5 game, which tells me he'll get the nod on long attempts.
Kansas City is a perfect 6-0 and this looks like a possible flat spot. Coming off a thrashing of the 49ers in the Super Bowl rematch, Kansas City plays its second straight road game. This could also help the Raiders move the ball, assuming the Chiefs don't play up to their usual level. I'm betting Kansas City may just go through the motions this week which tends to happen in high-lined divisional games like this one, allowing Las Vegas to stay in the game (and hopefully allow our kicker to pick up points). Of course, the expectation is NOT that Las Vegas will rack up lots of points, and instead will move the ball well enough to kick a couple of field goals (3+3 = 6 … winner).
Pick:
Player Prop: KC vs. LVR - PK Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-110)
###COLTS AT TEXANS: INDIANAPOLIS +6
I've been staring at this line all week trying to figure out why Houston is laying nearly a touchdown. I'm still perplexed. Fuck it, give me the Colts.
Indy may be overachieving at 4-3 but they somehow find ways to stay in every game. Even while shuffling starting quarterbacks and suffering a slew of injuries (RB Taylor), the rest of this team continues to fight each week and gets the money more often than not. Like many bettors, I expected the Colts would eventually crash back to reality but so long as they stay competitive in every game, that's usually a spot where I want to put my money.
Meanwhile, Houston hasn't exactly dazzled the league. Other than a blowout of the Patriots, the Texans have looked like a very deceptive 5-2 team. The line here is -6, yet the Texans have four wins by 6 or less points. One of those victories was a 2-point nail-bitter early in the season–at Indy.
The Colts also play lots of close games. Incredibly, all seven Colts games this season were decided by 6 or fewer points. That's a powerful stat when looking at this matchup and line. Divisional matchups inherently are good spots for dogs given mutual familiarity, but this game seems especially likely to be close. Indy remains under the radar, as well, in terms of bettors' confidence, though the Colts have won four of their last five games (and are 4-0-1 ATS in that stretch). In fact, underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS in all Colts’ games this season.
Let's also acknowledge some ugly numbers for Houston: The Texans are a dreadful 5-13 ATS in the last 18 games as a home favorite. They're 2-5 ATS in the last seven AFC South home games, and 3-6-1 the last ten games vs. Indy (3-0-1 SU/3-1 ATS in the last four visits to Houston).
I still don't understand this line. The Colts are my final decision, which almost looks too obvious.
Pick:
Full-Game Side - IND vs. HOU: COLTS +6
FALCONS AT BUCS: ATLANTA -2.5
Last time these two teams met, Atlanta won a high-scoring thriller 36-30 in overtime. ATL Cousins shredded the Bucs defense for a career-high 509 yards in that game. However, Tampa Bay will be severely depleted this time around, without their two best WRs who are out with injuries. That should seriously inhibit the Bucs' as much of a passing threat and allow the Falcons to enjoy significant advantages over a team they've already defeated when at full strength, now minus two of their best offensive players.
If offense is already a major concern, Tampa Bay's defense looks even worse. The Bucs have surrendered an average of 30 points per game in their last five contests. They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. To be fair, Atlanta has a reputation for a poor defense, but they rank middle of the pack -- #17. Hard to believe Atlanta has a defensive edge over anybody, but they do in this matchup.
So long as this game line stays under a FG (currently -2.5) a wager on the road favorite certainly looks justified. A terrible pass defense would already be problematic enough for the Bucs and now without their two main deep receiving targets, it's hard to see how Tampa Bay keeps pace in this game.
Pick:
Full-Game Side - ATL vs. TB: FALCONS -2.5
EAGLES VS. BENGALS: FIRST QUARTER MONEYLINE
It's hard to believe, but the Eagles have yet to score a single point in the first quarter of any game this season. Through six games, and despite a 4-2 record, Philadelphia has been dismal coming out of the locker room. ZERO POINTS. Playing a road game this week, versus an explosive team that can score points, this looks like another good spot to fade the slow-starting Eagles.
We have two ways to approach this wager. We can lay a half-point with the Bengals at -115. However, the moneyline offers -135 and given the short time frame and high variance, I'm laying the added vig so as to pick up a push just in case this score is tied at the end of the first 15 minutes.
There is a possibility this stat is just a crazy outlier, so I checked the Eagles 1Q production dating back to last season. Well, 2023 wasn't much better. Philadelphia ranked #22 in the NFL in offensive points scored in the 1Q. So, I think we can conclude the Eagles -- for whatever reasons -- have established a pattern of scoring problems early in games.
At 3-4, Cincinnati needs this game more and at home, they should enjoy the edge (game line is up to -3 in some spots). The Bengals offense has been clicking lately. They've scored a first-quarter touchdown in 4 of their last five games. One more stat: Cincinnati has been a very good defensive team early in games. The striped cats rank #3 in the NFL in 1Q scoring allowed, at less than a FG per game in seven contests. This looks like a fair lay price given one team starts fast and the other hasn’t just started slow, but has been all but invisible.
Pick:
First-Quarter Moneyline - PHI vs. CIN: BENGALS -135
SAINTS VS. CHARGERS: PLAYER PROP
Betting UNDER on props related to a team's best player is always risky. However, there's compelling evidence to fade Saints RB Kamara this week in their game at the LA Chargers. His rushing yardage total is 53.5 yards. I'm not touching either side of that, but I am going UNDER on the combined rushing and receiving yardage by Kamara, which is listed at 86.5 yards. That's a high number of a New Orleans offense that's been struggling lately. We've also learned that Kamara's multiple injuries could be more serious than earlier thought, which means he may not get as many touches.
Kamara was limited in practice this week. The injury against KC didn't seem as serious three weeks ago, but we found out Kamara broke his hand against Kansas City and played through the ailment. This came in addition to a rib injury impacting Kamara's performance. Rushing wise, he has not been the same -- averaging just 2.5 yards per carry on 20 rushing attempts since hurting his hand, including a seven-carry, woeful 10-yard game last week against Denver. Receiving stats are equally as flat. Kamara has 11 receptions in his last two games which is an impressive number of targets for any RB, but he only has 38 yards of receiving yardage with those catches.
Not sure why New Orleans would continue risking Kamara's health. He's a tough player who plays through pain. But his explosiveness has clearly declined since that KC game. Versus a decent defense coming off a disappointing loss, I expect the Chargers will be able to keep Kamara in check and his stats under expectation. His targets could also be reduced this week as WR Olave and RB Hill are set to return this week and should take away some of the pressure on Kamara.
Pick:
Player Prop: NOR vs. LAC - SAINTS RB KAMARA UNDER 86.5 RECEIVING AND RUSHING YARDS (COMBINED)
TITANS VS. LIONS: PLAYER PROP
Last week, I wrote about discovering kicker props (and how the odds were mispriced), starting three seasons ago. I was the first to publicize these rarely-bet props and as this info became more widespread other cappers began copying the data and plays. Unfortunately, betting markets caught on, and now most of the value has been squeezed out of low kicking totals. This season, finding outlier value is uncommon. However, one thing that's also happened is a market overreaction to kicker point total expectations and numbers. Now, some of them are too high.
Consider the point total for Detroit kicker Bates this week, which is a whopping 8.5. Even though it's juiced to -135, this is a very high number (probably as high as it gets for any kicker). The OVER requires one of two possibilities -- 3 FGs or 2 FGs plus 3+ XPs. There is one more possibility, which is 1 FG plus 6 XPs, but that's not as likely.
The key component of handicapping this prop is guesswork on how many FGs are successful. The OVER requires successful FGs. And that means attempts. Trouble is, Detroit has one of the lowest FG attempt averages per game in the NFL. In fact, Bates has attempted only 10 FGs all season. A 1.7 FG attempt average per game is a low number, and likely to continue. This is because HC Campbell often goes for 4th down situations rather than kick. So, FG attempts are reduced. Campbell also doesn't tend to call the FG unit onto the field for long attempts. Through six games, the Lions' longest attempt this season was just 48 yards. Detroit is the only team in the NFL not to attempt a 50+ yarder this season. This all bodes well for the kicker to fall under the 8.5 point total.
Of course, Detroit could win this game in a blowout. Those XPs add up, and if the Lions tag Tennessee for multiple touchdowns, the UNDER could be in trouble. But it seems just as likely Detroit could be in a flat spot this week. They come off a huge road victory at Minnesota and face a lowly team. In fact, this is a "sandwich game" as the Lions play the rival Packers next week. So, this could be a matchup where the Lions don't want to show much and just get past the week with a win and stay healthy. This doesn't look like a game where the Lions will roll up the score, as we saw in Dallas a few weeks ago. However, the line (and kicking prop) is priced like the Lions will win in a rout.
Going UNDER 8.5 on kickers is probably a slight +EV wager across the board (I need to research this), but in Lions' game with all their special coaching circumstances, the UNDER looks even better.
Pick:
Player Prop - TEN vs. DET: DET PK Bates UNDER 8.5 points (-135)
FIRST-HALF BETS
Here are first-half plays, with short analysis of each pick:
First-Half Side: TEN vs. DET - TITANS +7.5
Sandwich game for the Lions (in between Minnesota and Green Bay games) means possible flat spot. Rudolph starting for Titans is probably bettor for Tennessee, who led 10-7 at halftime at Buffalo last week. I say Titans keep this close early and getting a hook on the 7 is enough to entice a wager.First-Half Side: BUF vs. SEA - SEAHAWKS +1.5
Buffalo has trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 4 games, so laying a point-plus here on the road against a winning team is an automatic fade. Seattle's QB Smith leads the NFL in passing yards at 283 per game. I'll take Seattle to keep this game close at home.
GIANTS vs. STEELERS (MNF)
I usually avoid public teams and betting on big favorites. I also like to bet against market overreactions to the previous week's results (sometime to my own stubborn detriment). All of those factors lineup in the Giants-Steelers MNF matchup. We have a dismal team (offensively) playing a road game at a team that put up an impressive performance in their last night game, which looks ideal for the favorite.
What compels me to bet the Steelers is the horrible play of the NYG offensive line, which was pummeled for 8 sacks and countless hurries against Philadelphia last week. Now facing Pittsburgh, an even more aggressive defense, I expect the Giants' problems will continue. The Steelers are averaging 2 takeaways per game, and I expect they'll get a few extra gifts this week.
Pittsburgh roared back to life with QB Wilson starting, which surprised many of us. We weren't sure if Wilson had anything left in the tank, but his performance last week versus an above-average defense sparks added confidence. The jury remains out on Wilson but here at home in his second consecutive night game in primetime versus a softer opponent, one expects his level of play will continue.
I don't see the Giants fixing their OL troubles in a week nor do I see them being able to score enough points to stay within the 6-point margin. Pittsburgh does occasionally go out and play a bad game (recall at INDY a few weeks ago), but that's far less likely at home on MNF with renewed confidence surrounding Wilson at QB.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: NYG vs. PIT - STEELERS -6 (MNF)
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR - QB Stafford Interception YES (-115) [W]
Player Prop: CHI vs. WAS - QB Williams OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: ARZ vs. MIA - DOLPHINS UNDER 24.5 (-115)
Player Prop: KC vs. LVR - PK Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-110)
Full-Game Side: IND vs. HOU - COLTS +6
Full-Game Side: ATL vs. TB - FALCONS -2.5
First-Quarter Moneyline: PHI vs. CIN - BENGALS -135
Player Prop: NOR vs. LAC - SAINTS RB KAMARA UNDER 86.5 RECEIVING AND RUSHING YARDS (COMBINED)
Player Prop: TEN vs. DET - DET PK Bates UNDER 8.5 points (-135)
First-Half Side: TEN vs. DET - TITANS +7.5
First-Half Side: BUF vs. SEA - SEAHAWKS +1.5
Full-Game Side: NYG vs. PIT - STEELERS -6 (MNF)
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