2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 63
LOSSES — 51
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — +$80
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-6 (-$80)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,080
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 8):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 8 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR - QB Stafford Interception YES (-115) [W]
Player Prop: CHI vs. WAS - QB Williams OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115) [L]
Full-Game Team Total: ARZ vs. MIA - DOLPHINS UNDER 24.5 (-115) [L]
Player Prop: KC vs. LVR - PK Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-110) [W]
Full-Game Side: IND vs. HOU - COLTS +6 [W]
Full-Game Side: ATL vs. TB - FALCONS -2.5 [W]
First-Quarter Moneyline: PHI vs. CIN - BENGALS -135 [W]
Player Prop: NOR vs. LAC - SAINTS RB KAMARA UNDER 86.5 RECEIVING AND RUSHING YARDS (COMBINED) [L]
Player Prop: TEN vs. DET - DET PK Bates UNDER 8.5 points (-135) [L]
First-Half Side: TEN vs. DET - TITANS +7.5 [L]
First-Half Side: BUF vs. SEA - SEAHAWKS +1.5 [L]
Full-Game Side: NYG vs. PIT - STEELERS -6 (MNF) [W]
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 9)
HOUSTON VS. NY JETS (TNF): TEASER PICK
The Jets are favored at -2 despite being 2-6 SU and playing against a 6-2 SU team. This line makes no sense whatsoever. Presumably, Jets' backers hope the home favorite finally shows up and gets a win, breaking a dismal 5-game losing streak. But that faith is based on what, exactly? This team is in disarray. It's apparent there's a loss of confidence, certainly in the coaching staff, and now perhaps even in QB Rodgers, who is now being openly questioned as a failure and is now getting much of the blame for the Jets' problems. I don't necessarily say everyone should fade the Jets and bet on Houston in this game, but picking the Jets and laying points looks like flushing money down a toilet.
It does seem that if the floundering Jets were going to "right the sinking ship" they would have shown up last week and beat the Patriots, one of the NFL's worst teams. New England even lost their starting QB mid-game, but still managed to come back and upset the Jets as +7 point underdogs. Now, the Jets are supposed to shake the loss and break their losing streak? Really? I'm not buying it.
Taking Houston in the first half (plus a half-point) and for the full game are both tempting. However, some injuries to the Texans' side of the ball (and the receiver corps), particularly on offense, could make this yet another close game for the Texans. Houston has played 6 of its 8 games resulting in a one-score or less differential, and here's another game that seems likely to be decided late by a field goal. Accordingly, I'll tease Houston and take advantage of the Wong basic strategy angle picking up the key numbers by moving my line from +2 up to +8. It's really hard to see the NY Jets blowing away a good team at this point, certainly not with their internal problems and mediocre offensive numbers.
I'm not sure Houston needs to play anything close to a perfect game here or even be completely healthy to win, and certainly not to cover a teased number up over the TD. Houston should be able to run the ball effectively with RB Mixon, who has 100+ yards on the ground in four of his past five games. Combined with a team that wins games despite being outplayed some weeks and matched versus a team that looks to be in a nosedive, Houston looks like a confident pick. I’ll toss in the intangible of a better FG kicker who is 19/21 this season, contrasted with the Jets’ kicker now on IR, which forced them to sign a new PK this week. Who knows how that will turn out.
This teaser can be combined with multiple other matchups. Some candidates include Buffalo (teased down to pick vs. Miami) and Kansas City (teased down to -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay. However, I'll jump on the home underdog Cleveland Browns at +2 against LA Chargers and move the number up to +8 on the teaser. Getting more than a touchdown with a team that looks much better now with the change at QB and playing a second straight home game strikes me as a smart play. That said, I wouldn't be critical of similar teaser combos on the Bills and Chiefs.
Pick:
Two-Team Teaser - HOUSTON +8 vs. NYJ /// CLEVELAND +8 vs. LAC (-125)
DENVER-BALTIMORE UNDER 46.5
- These are both above-average defenses, yet it’s a higher-than-average total. Let’s add the fact Denver’s offense ranks in the bottom third of the league (21st in points scored and 25th in yardage), and the presumption that we can’t expect many points by the Broncos. Denver has faced two of the worst teams in the NFL the past two weeks, (CAR and banged-up NOR), which means their numbers could be a bit skewed, and now they have to travel to Baltimore, which is coming off a loss and should be angry. This puts most of the pressure on Baltimore’s dynamic offense to score in order to push this total OVER the number. Indeed, the Ravens could win here in a blowout, and run up the numbers. That’s certainly possible given Baltimore’s rankings in every offensive statistical category. However, I’m counting on Denver’s consistent defense to keep them in this game and the score to land somewhere in the low 40s. A final score of 27-16 sounds about right.
Pick:
Full-Game Total: DEN-BAL UNDER 46.5
THREE BETS ON THE INDIANAPOLIS-MINNESOTA GAME
- Indianapolis opened at +6 playing this week at Minnesota. That line dropped to +5.5 upon the announcement veteran journeyman Joe Flacco would start in place of Richardson. I don’t think that’s enough of an adjustment. We’ve all seen how much better the Colts are with Flacco as the starter, and the mid-season QB change makes a bold statement that the coaching staff not only knows he gives them a better chance to win, but also is a realization that Indy could be a playoff contender and have shown they can be competitive most weeks versus anybody. I expect this will spark some additional confidence in the Colts who look very live as an underdog playing at Minnesota. /// Indy has won 4 of its last 6 outright, but even more impressive – they’re 5-0-1 ATS in that span. Moreover, underdogs are 6-1 in Colts games this season. We have to like the chances Indy will keep this one close. I’m also thrilled that betting markets apparently are very slow to catch on to this undervalued team, WHICH IS 7-1 THIS SEASON, THE BEST MARK IN THE NFL. And half of those games/covers were with (now benched) Richardson starting. /// Minnesota looked unstoppable the first five weeks, but has since stumbled and lost two straight. The real worry in Minneapolis is the Vikings collapsing in the second-half, scoring just 34 points in the second half of its last four games (8.2 PPG in 2H). The Vikings supposedly stout defense also surrendered 29+ points in 3 of its last 4 contests. Oh, let’s add the Vikings dreadful record as a home favorite …… 0-6 ATS their last six games. /// I expect the Colts have enough talent and motivation to keep this game close and within the margin. As for the first half, catching the full +3 is too good a value to pass up. I also like Flacco to put up some passing yardage, especially versus a team that is also dangerous and scores points. If playing from behind, that only makes the Flacco passing yardage more likely.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 vs. MIN
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +3 vs. MIN (-115)
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO OVER 235.5 passing yards vs. MIN (-115)
ATLANTA -3 VS. DALLAS
- This line was -2.5 early in the week, then moved to -3 (when I bet it on Friday) and now appears headed for -3.5 (maybe higher by kickoff). Dallas announced a few injuries, which explains this move, in part. But I suspect the betting market is reacting to the growing disarray in Dallas, including lots of finger pointing. That's usually a bad omen for any team. The Cowboys simply aren't talented enough nor well-coached enough, nor have the on-the-field leadership to overcome looming internal problems and an obvious loss of confidence. While many good teams suffer slumps and even experience internal squabbles, this appears far more serious. /// It's easy to blame QB Prescott for the Cowboys' many problems, and he's been mediocre since signing his huge contract in Week 1 (which I predict will backfire). Trouble is, Prescott has never been a great leader nor team motivator. It's hard to point to many "big games" he's won over the course of his 7-year career, despite throwing for lots of trash yards and impressive stats (almost always in games that aren't as meaningful). /// Dallas' big chance to bounce back was last week at San Francisco, especially coming off their bye and playing versus a very banged up 3-4 49ers team with their own problems. However, the Cowboys got throttled on both sides of the ball. Now, they play another road game and I'm trying to come up with any justification for a wager on Dallas as a dog, but can't find much. I don't think the Cowboys will turn things around and solve their problems this week, not so quickly. Their challenge is amplified by playing versus a first-place opponent, which has won 4 of its last 5 games and is playing very well offensively. These are just a few of the reasons why Atlanta is easily justified in laying a FG and perhaps even as high as -4. Catching the -3 was a gift.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: ATLANTA -3 vs. DAL (-115)
CLEVELAND +1.5 VS. LA CHARGERS
- The line hasn't adjusted nearly enough to the Browns' transformation with a new veteran QB. Yeah, beating Baltimore last week was just one game, but Cleveland looked like a totally different team with QB Winston under center. Beating one of the top-5 teams in the NFL outright as a +9 point underdog leads me to believe they can repeat that level of performance, and win again for the second straight game at home. /// I'm trying to find a quality win on the Chargers' schedule (maybe beating Denver) but this isn't a proven winner that deserves to be favored on the road. I'd make this line the other way, with Cleveland laying a small number. For all their problems, Cleveland has done well in this situation, going 6-3-1 ATS as a home dog in the last ten games (despite horrid offensive numbers and much of that under Watson–now injured). I expect the Browns will look at this game as the continuation of a new season and a chance to get back in the race--had they lost last week, all bets here would be off. /// There is recent history to back up the theory that the Browns will be a very different team going forward -- just recall last season's reversal and playoff appearance under Joe Flacco, who much like Winston, was considered too spent and done for his career. Now, he's moved on (continuing that success) and Winston could very well be that spark that produces a similar run.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +1.5 vs. LAC
FIRST QUARTER BET: CAROLINA +1 vs. NOR
- One of the fundamentals of sports betting is not to expect horrible teams to do what they seem incapable of doing, which is to play well enough to win/cover. The thing here is, we have two really bad/struggling teams meeting, and we're getting the point advantage with the home team. That's like getting 6-5 on a coin flip, priced slightly less on the vig. /// There's not much data to justify a wager on Carolina as bad as they've played. But this is more of a bet against New Orleans, which has sucked badly on offense and is riding a horrid 6-game losing streak (going 1-5 ATS in those losses). Perhaps the Saints will reverse that downslide this week in what appears to be a very winnable game. However, I'm expecting a slow start and some time for QB Carr (who is back this week after an injury) to get back in rhythm. Getting a point forces New Orleans to score to cover, and I'm not sure they'll do that in the first 15 minutes. /// The Saints have also struggled in this situation under HC Allen / QB Carr, posting a woeful 1-6 ATS record in their seven games as road favorites. New Orleans’ last four games were all losses by double digits: 13-24-13-18 points. I'll gladly fade that trend, even with Carr's return, and a bad Panthers' team.
Pick:
First-Quarter Side: CAROLINA +1 vs. NOR (+115)
ARIZONA -1 VS. CHICAGO
- We never know which Arizona team will show up from week-to-week. This feisty team beat the 49ers, Chargers, and Dolphins within the past month, but also occasionally fails to show up (recall the Cardinals getting blown out at Green Bay). One thing is for sure and that's the fact Arizona continues to show improvement on both sides of the ball. They are much better than the last-place expectation that was forecasted on this team, who some even said might be one of the worst in the NFL. Now with a chance to move to 5-4 on the season, Arizona actually has a shot at winning the division, which would be a stunning outcome. But that takes winning games like this week, hosting the Bears. /// Predicting how Chicago will react both emotionally and strategically after that devastating last-play loss in Washington last week is tough to say. Going on the road another week can't be good. But what puts me squarely on the Cardinals as a small favorite is recalling how bad the Chicago offense looked for 55 minutes in last week's loss. The Bears couldn't do anything most of the game, and even had fewer than 100 yards passing entering the 4th quarter. Arizona has defensive vulnerabilities of their own -- which sparks the question….can Chicago take advantage? My best guess is -- they'll struggle (and could be hungover from last week's giveaway game). Arizona has won 3 of its last 4 games, including against opposition that's decent. They should also be able to take care of business at home, laying a small number.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: ARIZONA -1 vs. CHI
BUFFALO -6 VS. MIAMI
- I normally take dogs in divisional games, especially when the line is higher than normal. Buffalo is laying nearly a touchdown here at home. That said, I not only won't touch the Dolphins—-I'm betting against them. /// Buffalo has dominated this series, and it's impossible to dismiss the numbers. The Bills won easily in Miami in Week 2, by a three touchdown margin, 31-10. The Dolphins have also lost 8 straight in Buffalo, and are a dreadful 2-14 straight up in their last 16 games vs. the Bills. Some of those losses may not be relevant now, yet we also can't overlook just how poorly Miami has played against its AFC East rival during the Jeff Allen era. /// Speaking of Allen, few QBs are better at making things happen, even on the ground. Watching last week's breeze of a win in Seattle, we saw Buffalo take care of business. Meanwhile, Miami threw away a victory hosting Arizona last week in QB Tua's return game from an injury. Since their season opener, Miami has gone 1-5, with their lone victory at New England, and even that win wasn't easy. Miami should show better offensive production this week than we've seen the first half of the season, but if Buffalo plays it's usual game and history is any indication, the Bills should also cover this number (which I would put at -7).
Pick:
Full-Game Side: BUFFALO -6 vs. MIA
LA RAMS -1.5 VS. SEATTLE
- The Rams appear to be a different (much better) team when healthy. That might seem too obvious, yet the way the Rams performed in last week's home upset of Minnesota shows they are far better than their 4-6 W-L record indicates. Now with both the run and pass options and all of his targets back, QB Stafford and the LA offense should be able to put up points versus a Seattle defense with major holes. The Seahawks have allowed 181 YPG rushing yards (average) alone in their past four games. When teams can run for that number, they usually win (and cover). Seattle played a horrible game last week against Buffalo and there's some chance this will be an "all hands on deck" kind of game for a team desperately in need of a win in what's shaping up to be a very tight divisional race. However, the Seahawks last three home games shows nothing but ass-kicking losses by 21-12-9, including getting beat by the lowly Giants. Facing a healthier Rams team hungry for a win of their own seems the right side here. /// I'm also betting QB Stafford to go OVER (see that writeup below).
Pick:
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -1.5 vs. SEA
TWO NEW ENGLAND WAGERS VS. TENNESSEE
- I wrote earlier about betting on bad teams and asking them to win being a faulty strategy. I also wrote that when two bad teams are playing, taking the points might be the only option with value. That principle applies here as the Patriots are getting a generous number of points playing at Tennessee, which should not be favored by more than a FG over anybody. /// The Patriots' numbers in nearly every category are dreadful, but credit them here as they’re coming off a huge emotional win last week beating the rival NY Jets. Perhaps some bettors expect a letdown, which I'm counting against. We've already seen Tennessee's ridiculous mistakes (terrible QB errors, penalties, blown assignments) which have killed this team in several games this season. Now, the Titans' special teams have been exposed as one of the league's worst. Consider the craziest stat I've seen in many years for an NFL game: Last week at DET, the Titans outgained the Lions 416-225 (nearly double the yardage) but still lost 52-14! How’s that possible? The return and kicking teams were painful to watch. Given the Titans already had problems, adding this concern makes me like the dog even more. Tennessee has also gone 1-4 in its last five games as a favorite–meaning, this team doesn't beat the teams they should when given the opportunity.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +3.5 vs. TEN
First-Half SIDE: NEW ENGLAND +2.5 vs. TEN
THREE PLAYER PROPS:
After struggling to keep enough skill positions healthy, Matt Stafford enters a big divisional matchup with a supporting cast at full strength on offense. Facing the #22 ranked defense in yards allowed, Stafford should be able to move the ball through the air, including connecting on some big plays. He threw for 279 yards last week with this same lineup, against the Vikings with a better defense, to go along with 4 TD passes. One expects Stafford will continue airing it out. Perfect weather is forecast Sunday in Seattle.
Pick: LAR QB Stafford OVER 237.5 passing yardsFlacco is back as the starter, which probably means we'll see the Colts open up the playbook more this week, and they might have to since theyr playing the Vikings which is riding an ugly two-game losing streak. Even if playing from behind, that likely helps this Flacco prop to go OVER. IN only 3 games, Flacco has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio. He's got the Colts in position to make a playoff run and I expect we'll see Indy be able to move the ball and stay competitive for most of the game.
Pick: IND QB FLACCO OVER 235.5 passing yards (-115)The Eagles WR has missed three games due to injury. Yet, in the four games he's played, Brown has been a major factor and big-play specialist. Brown has become QB Hurts favorite deep target, putting up "longest reception" marks of 29-41-40-67 in his four game appearances. With breakaway potential, Brown could certainly take a short pass and run long, breaking this O/U. These props are often risky and highly volative, but we can be almost certain he'll get some deep shots in this game, especially against a vulnerable defense in the Jaguars, which gives up lots of big plays and ranks #31 out of 32 teams in pass defense.
Pick: PHI WR BROWN longest reception OVER 26.5 yards
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
Two-Team Teaser - HOUSTON +8 vs. NYJ /// CLEVELAND +8 vs. LAC (-125) …. PUSH
Pick: Full-Game Total: DEN-BAL UNDER 46.5
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 vs. MIN
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +3 vs. MIN (-115)
Full-Game Side: ATLANTA -3 vs. DAL (-115)
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +1.5 vs. LAC
First-Quarter Side: CAROLINA +1 vs. NOR (+115)
Full-Game Side: ARIZONA -1 vs. CHI
Full-Game Side: BUFFALO -6 vs. MIA
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -1.5 vs. SEA
Full-Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +3.5 vs. TEN
First-Half SIDE: NEW ENGLAND +2.5 vs. TEN
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford OVER 237.5 passing yards
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO OVER 235.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: PHI WR BROWN longest reception OVER 26.5 yards
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