2024 NFL GAME WRITE UPS AND PICKS: WEEK 9

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:

WINS — 63

LOSSES — 51

PUSH — 2

NET WIN/LOSS — +$80

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-6 (-$80)

STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000

CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,080

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)


LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 8):

Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 8 REPORT HERE

Player Prop: MIN vs. LAR - QB Stafford Interception YES (-115) [W]
Player Prop: CHI vs. WAS - QB Williams OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115) [L]
Full-Game Team Total: ARZ vs. MIA - DOLPHINS UNDER 24.5 (-115) [L]
Player Prop: KC vs. LVR - PK Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-110) [W]
Full-Game Side: IND vs. HOU - COLTS +6 [W]
Full-Game Side: ATL vs. TB - FALCONS -2.5 [W]
First-Quarter Moneyline: PHI vs. CIN - BENGALS -135 [W]
Player Prop: NOR vs. LAC - SAINTS RB KAMARA UNDER 86.5 RECEIVING AND RUSHING YARDS (COMBINED) [L]
Player Prop: TEN vs. DET - DET PK Bates UNDER 8.5 points (-135) [L]
First-Half Side: TEN vs. DET - TITANS +7.5 [L]
First-Half Side: BUF vs. SEA - SEAHAWKS +1.5 [L]
Full-Game Side: NYG vs. PIT - STEELERS -6 (MNF) [W]

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 9)

HOUSTON VS. NY JETS (TNF): TEASER PICK

  • The Jets are favored at -2 despite being 2-6 SU and playing against a 6-2 SU team. This line makes no sense whatsoever. Presumably, Jets' backers hope the home favorite finally shows up and gets a win, breaking a dismal 5-game losing streak. But that faith is based on what, exactly? This team is in disarray. It's apparent there's a loss of confidence, certainly in the coaching staff, and now perhaps even in QB Rodgers, who is now being openly questioned as a failure and is now getting much of the blame for the Jets' problems. I don't necessarily say everyone should fade the Jets and bet on Houston in this game, but picking the Jets and laying points looks like flushing money down a toilet.

  • It does seem that if the floundering Jets were going to "right the sinking ship" they would have shown up last week and beat the Patriots, one of the NFL's worst teams. New England even lost their starting QB mid-game, but still managed to come back and upset the Jets as +7 point underdogs. Now, the Jets are supposed to shake the loss and break their losing streak? Really? I'm not buying it.

  • Taking Houston in the first half (plus a half-point) and for the full game are both tempting. However, some injuries to the Texans' side of the ball (and the receiver corps), particularly on offense, could make this yet another close game for the Texans. Houston has played 6 of its 8 games resulting in a one-score or less differential, and here's another game that seems likely to be decided late by a field goal. Accordingly, I'll tease Houston and take advantage of the Wong basic strategy angle picking up the key numbers by moving my line from +2 up to +8. It's really hard to see the NY Jets blowing away a good team at this point, certainly not with their internal problems and mediocre offensive numbers.

  • I'm not sure Houston needs to play anything close to a perfect game here or even be completely healthy to win, and certainly not to cover a teased number up over the TD. Houston should be able to run the ball effectively with RB Mixon, who has 100+ yards on the ground in four of his past five games. Combined with a team that wins games despite being outplayed some weeks and matched versus a team that looks to be in a nosedive, Houston looks like a confident pick. I’ll toss in the intangible of a better FG kicker who is 19/21 this season, contrasted with the Jets’ kicker now on IR, which forced them to sign a new PK this week. Who knows how that will turn out.

  • This teaser can be combined with multiple other matchups. Some candidates include Buffalo (teased down to pick vs. Miami) and Kansas City (teased down to -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay. However, I'll jump on the home underdog Cleveland Browns at +2 against LA Chargers and move the number up to +8 on the teaser. Getting more than a touchdown with a team that looks much better now with the change at QB and playing a second straight home game strikes me as a smart play. That said, I wouldn't be critical of similar teaser combos on the Bills and Chiefs.

Pick:
Two-Team Teaser - HOUSTON +8 vs. NYJ /// CLEVELAND +8 vs. LAC (-125)

::::: more to come :::::


FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):



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